MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 118-105/118-107 Now Key To Intraday Direction

*RES 4: 118-310/320 Apr 17, May 18 highs

*RES 3: 118-247 Jun 14 high

*RES 2: 118-220/227 Aug 11, Aug 18 highs

*RES 1: 118-205 Aug 21, Aug 23 highs

*PRICE: 118-182 @0932GMT

*SUP 1: 118-105/107 Aug 17 low, 7 week rising support line

*SUP 2: 118-052/057 61.8% of 117-265/118-227, Aug 16 low

*SUP 3: 118-010/012 Aug 1 low, 76.4% Fibo of 117-265/118-227

*SUP 4: 117-265 Jul 25 low

*COMMENTARY* Another attempt to the topside last Friday, pulling up in the midst

of the next 118-220/118-247 resistance area. Still need to sustain a break

through here before the overall bias can switch to higher again and a renewed

challenge to the Apr/May highs at 118-310/118-320. In the meantime, look to

118-107/118-105 for support, loss of the latter would spoil the look of the

recent recovery and put the 118-057/118-052 region back under pressure.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Still A Slave To The 5 Week Bull Channel

*RES 4: 127-080 Jun 14 high

*RES 3: 127-065 5 week bull channel top 

*RES 2: 127-015 Aug 18 high

*RES 1: 126-305 Aug 23 high

*PRICE: 126-265 @0938GMT

*SUP 1: 126-160 Aug 23 low

*SUP 2: 126-110 Aug 17 low

*SUP 3: 126-065 5 week bull channel base

*SUP 4: 125-320 Aug 16 low

*COMMENTARY* The 125-290/125-260 area remained unscathed, as the earlier 125-320

level provided support last week. The subsequent recovery has broken above the

previous 126-280/126-290 highs to reach 127-015. Will have to find the further

strength for a sustained break above here however, before the confidence in the

upside will be restored and the chance of a continued 127-065/127-080 rise.

Support from 126-160/126-110 now protects the 5 week channel base at 126-065.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17)  Still Faces Decent Resistance Between 157-06/157-12

*RES 4: 158-24 2% volatility band

*RES 3: 157-27 38.2% Fibo of 177-11/145-26

*RES 2: 157-12 4 week bull channel top

*RES 1: 157-06/08 1% volatility band, Jun 26 high 

*PRICE: 156-13 @0950GMT

*SUP 1: 155-06/16 Aug 16 high, Aug 18, 22 & 23 lows

*SUP 2: 154-18/21 Aug 17 low, 4 week bull channel base

*SUP 3: 154-10 Initial rally high Aug 16, now support

*SUP 4: 153-24 Aug 15 low

*COMMENTARY* A new 156-19 high seen today but above here will continue to face

resistance from between the upper 1% volatility band at 157-06 and then the 4

week bull channel top at 157-12. A sustained break through here is needed,

before the longer term Fibo retrace at 157-27 comes into view. Support comes

from 155-16/155-06 but the 154-21/154-10 area is of more importance below.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) 98.580-98.590 Resistance Again The Interest Here

*RES 4: 98.655 May 18 high

*RES 3: 98.630 Jun 14 high

*RES 2: 98.610 Jun 6 high

*RES 1: 98.580/590 Jul 14, Aug 23, Jun 16 highs

*PRICE: 98.575 @0954GMT

*SUP 1: 98.535/545 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 98.515 Initial recovery high Jul 6, now support

*SUP 3: 98.495 Jul 6 low, 50% of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 4: 98.470 Apr 23 low

*COMMENTARY* Finally saw some near term movement with the rally back above

98.560-98.565 resistance earlier in the  month. Now looking to see if this

bounce has the impetus to trouble the next 98.580-98.590 area. Through the

latter needed before we reach more important levels between 98.610-98.630. As a

result, nearest support has risen to 98.535-98.545, with the 98.515 level still

seen as key on the downside.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]