MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Correction Continues, 117-280/117-272 Next Key Area

*RES 4: 118-237 Sep 11 high

*RES 3: 118-192 Sep 10 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 118-132 Sep 13 high

*RES 1: 118-087 Sep 14 high

*PRICE: 118-002 @1108GMT

*SUP 1: 117-312 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 117-272/280 61.8% Fibo of 117-035/119-015, Aug 16 low

*SUP 3: 117-255 Aug 4 low

*SUP 4: 117-170/180 Jul 25 low, 76.4% Fibo of 117-035/119-015

*COMMENTARY* Having lost support from the 9 week bull channel earlier in the

week, last Thursday we traded below the next key area between 118-097/118-090.

Loss continues the correction of the 117-035/119-015 gains seen since early

July. This now sees the potential for a deeper fall towards the next set of

supports from 117-280/117-272. Meanwhile, resistance falls to 118-087/118-132,

above here currently needed for some near term respite.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 126-050/126-035 Can Provide a Decent Support Area

*RES 4: 127-100 Sep 11 high

*RES 3: 127-015 Hourly high Sep 11

*RES 2: 126-250 Sep 13 high

*RES 1: 126-180/185 Sep 13 high

*PRICE: 126-070 @1015GMT

*SUP 1: 126-050/055 50% of 124-140/127-285, Sep 14 low

*SUP 2: 126-035 6 month rising support line

*SUP 3: 125-240 61.8% Fibo of 124-140/127-285

*SUP 4: 125-215 Aug 16 low

*COMMENTARY* Pullback continues below the 9 week bull channel base at 126-290.

This was the protection against a deeper correction of the 124-140/127-285 gains

seen since early July. Have since also lost support from the key 126-180 area, 

beneath which opens up the prospect of a further 126-050/126-035 fall next. In

the interim, nearest resistance now comes from 126-180/126-185 but above 126-250

would ease immediate pressure and allow some respite.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 154-30 Gives Way, Fall Tests 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: 156-29 Sep 11 high

*RES 3: 156-05 Hourly recovery high Sep 11 

*RES 2: 156-02 Broken 8 week support line

*RES 1: 155-15/18 Sep 15, Sep 13 highs

*PRICE: 154-28 @1023GMT

*SUP 1: 154-12/14 Sep 14 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: 154-04 61.8% Fibo of 151-18/158-09

*SUP 3: 153-24 Aug 15 low

*SUP 4: 153-05 76.4% Fibo of 151-18/158-09

*COMMENTARY* Last week saw the the loss of both 156-07 support and the 7 week

support line. This followed by the key 154-30 level on Thursday. A low of 154-12

seen so far, with the next important area of support coming from the 61.8% Fibo

retrace level at 154-04. In the meantime, resistance falls to 155-15/155-18,

presently require a move back above here to ease pressure.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) Six Month Rising Support Line Gives Way

*RES 4: 98.655 May 18 high

*RES 3: 98.635 Sep 8 high

*RES 2: 98.600/610 Aug 29 high, Sep 8 low

*RES 1: 98.575 Broken 6 month support line

*PRICE: 98.540 @1029GMT

*SUP 1: 98.540 Sep 14 low

*SUP 2: 98.520 Jul 25-Jul 26 lows

*SUP 3: 98.495 Jul 6 low

*SUP 4: 98.470 Apr 24 low

*COMMENTARY* Failed to take advantage of the break above 98.590/98.600 earlier

in the month, a high of 98.635 before giving up ground again. This culminated in

a drop below the 6 month rising support line last Thursday. This suggests that

there is initially scope for a return towards the Jul 6 low at 98.495, via

98.540-98.520 support. In the interim, nearest resistance comes from the broken

support line at 98.575, with 98.600-98.610 above.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]