MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Correction Continues, 117-280/117-272 Next Key Area

*RES 4: 118-237 Sep 11 high

*RES 3: 118-192 Sep 10 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 118-132 Sep 13 high

*RES 1: 118-072 Sep 15 high

*PRICE: 117-317 @1030GMT

*SUP 1: 117-272/280 61.8% Fibo of 117-035/119-015, Aug 16 low

*SUP 2: 117-245/255 50% Fibo 116-155/119-015, Aug 4 low

*SUP 3: 117-170/180 Jul 25 low, 76.4% Fibo of 117-035/119-015

*SUP 4: 117-132/147 Jul 6 low, 61.8% Fibo of 116-155/119-015

*COMMENTARY* Having lost support from the 9 week bull channel earlier in the

week, last Thursday we traded below the next key area between 118-097/118-090.

Loss continues the correction of the 117-035/119-015 gains seen since early

July. This now sees the potential for a deeper fall towards the next set of

supports from 117-280/117-272. Meanwhile, resistance falls to 118-072/118-132,

above here currently needed for some near term respite.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 126-155/126-180 The Bar To Any Recovery Hopes

*RES 4: 127-015 Hourly high Sep 11 

*RES 3: 126-250 Sep 13 high

*RES 2: 126-180 Sep 14-15 highs

*RES 1: 126-155 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 126-045 @1040GMT

*SUP 1: 126-010/020 Aug 17 low, Jul 24 high

*SUP 2: 125-240 61.8% Fibo of 124-140/127-285

*SUP 3: 125-215 Aug 16 low

*SUP 4: 125-175 Aug 8 low

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the base of the 9 week bull channel last week,

now trying to move clearly below the 6 month rising support line, at 126-045 by

time today. A low of 126-010 so far, in line with the Aug 17 low and Jul 24

high. Sustained break below here will look to test 125-240/125-215 next. In the

meantime, while 126-045/126-010 can contain the fall, look to 126-155/126-180

for resistance. Back above the latter would be very helpful to any recovery.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Fall Tests 61.8% Fibo Level And 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: 156-29 Sep 11 high

*RES 3: 156-06 Broken 8 week support line

*RES 2: 155-15/18 Sep 15, Sep 13 highs

*RES 1: 155-04 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 154-14 @1050GMT

*SUP 1: 154-04 61.8% Fibo of 151-18/158-09, 1% vol band

*SUP 2: 153-24 Aug 15 low

*SUP 3: 153-05 76.4% Fibo of 151-18/158-09

*SUP 4: 152-18 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Last week saw the the loss of both 156-07 support and the rising

support line from the late July lows. This followed by the key 154-30 level on

Thursday. A low of 154-04 seen so far, in line with the next important area of

support coming from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level and the lower 1% volatility

band. In the meantime, resistance falls to 155-04/155-18, presently require a

move back above here to ease pressure. Lose 154-04 and 153-24/153-05 next.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) Six Month Rising Support Line Gives Way

*RES 4: 98.655 May 18 high

*RES 3: 98.635 Sep 8 high

*RES 2: 98.600/610 Aug 29 high, Sep 8 low

*RES 1: 98.575 Broken 6 month support line

*PRICE: 98.535 @1055GMT

*SUP 1: 98.520 Jul 25-Jul 26 lows

*SUP 2: 98.495 Jul 6 low, 50% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 3: 98.470 Apr 24 low

*SUP 4: 98.455 61.8% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*COMMENTARY* Failed to take advantage of the break above 98.590/98.600 earlier

in the month, a high of 98.635 before giving up ground again. This culminated in

a drop below the 6 month rising support line last Thursday. This suggests that

there is initially scope for a return towards the Jul 6 low at 98.495, via

98.520 support. In the interim, nearest resistance comes from the broken support

line at 98.575, with 98.600-98.610 above.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]