MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 117-137/117-142 The Bar To Any Real Upside Progress

*RES 4: 117-295 Sep 25 high, 50% Fibo of 119-015/116-252

*RES 3: 117-207 Oct 13 high, 38.2% Fibo of 119-015/116-252

*RES 2: 117-137/142 Oct 19 high, 76.4% of 117-207/116-252

*RES 1: 117-120 Nov 3 high

*PRICE: 117-072 @1132GMT

*SUP 1: 117-017 Nov 2 low

*SUP 2: 116-290/315 Hourly support

*SUP 3: 116-252 Oct 27 low

*SUP 4: 116-175 Dec 15 low

*COMMENTARY* After recovering from the previous week's 116-252 low, last week

spent the majority of time trying to break through 117-102 resistance. A high of

117-120 on Friday but unable as yet to sustain this move. Still looking at

support from 117-017 but only a loss of 116-315/116-290 will concern at this

stage. Above 117-120 and the 117-137/117-142 area is still anticipated to

provide resistance and a decent barrier to a 117-207 return.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 125-135 Fibo Level Continues To Frustrate Gains

*RES 4: 125-255 Oct 13 high

*RES 3: 125-195 38.2% Fibo of 127-285/124-060

*RES 2: 125-160 Oct 19 high

*RES 1: 125-135 76.4% Fibo of 125-255/124-060, Nov 6 high

*PRICE: 125-090 @1136GMT

*SUP 1: 124-285 Nov 2 low

*SUP 2: 124-230 Nov 1 low

*SUP 3: 124-130/192 Congestion area Oct 25-26

*SUP 4: 124-060/065 Oct 25, Mar 29 lows

*COMMENTARY* Finally seen a challenge over the last couple of days to the 76.4%

Fibo retrace level at 125-135. Through here and still have resistance from

between 125-160/125-195 to navigate, before the way is clear for a 125-255

return. Support has gradually crept higher, Thursday's 124-285 low now the

initial level, although recent upside momentum is protected by the lower

124-230/124-192 region.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Rally Challenges 154-10 Fibo Resistance

*RES 4: 156-13 76.4% Fibo of 158-09/150-10

*RES 3: 155-20 2% volatility band

*RES 2: 155-04/08 Sep 25 high, 61.8% of 158-09/150-10

*RES 1: 154-10/12 50% of 158-09/150-10, Nov 6 high

*PRICE: 154-03 @1140GMT

*SUP 1: 153-07/10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 152-19 Oct 31 high, now support

*SUP 3: 151-31 Nov 1 low

*SUP 4: 151-10 Initial recovery high Oct 27, now support

*COMMENTARY* The recovery is now through both 153-10/153-11 resistance and the

upper 1% volatility band, at 154-05 by time today. Above here and the next step

higher, is a return to the slightly higher 50% Fibo retrace level at 154-10. As

a result, nearest support now comes from 153-10/153-07 and then the Oct 31 high

at 152-19. Through 154-10 and the dual 155-04/155-08 area beckons.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) Pullback Sees Focus Return To 98.470

*RES 4: 98.580 Sep 14 high

*RES 3: 98.555 Aug 25 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 98.525 Sep 25, Sep 28 highs

*RES 1: 98.510 Oct 13 high

*PRICE: 98.475 @1142GMT

*SUP 1: 98.470 Apr 24, Oct 6, intraday lows

*SUP 2: 98.455 61.8% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 3: 98.410 76.4% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 4: 98.360 Dec 15 low

*COMMENTARY* Having lost 98.495 support earlier in the month, the 98.470 level

has since provided some interim support and protection to the 61.8% Fibo retrace

level at 98.455. That said, any recovery will need to deal firstly with the Oct

13 high at 98.510 and then more importantly the dual highs at 98.525. Through

here the minimum requirement to provide some respite and allow some greater

correction of the losses seen since the Sep 8 high at 98.635.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]