MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Back Under Pressure, 117-057/117-082 Resistance Caps

*RES 4: 117-207 Oct 13 high, 38.2% Fibo of 119-015/116-252

*RES 3: 117-137/142 Oct 19 high, 76.4% of 117-207/116-252

*RES 2: 117-120 Nov 3 high

*RES 1: 117-057/082 Nov 6, Nov 7 lows, Nov 9 high

*PRICE: 116-297 @1127GMT

*SUP 1: 116-280 Nov 16 low

*SUP 2: 116-252/255 Oct 27, Nov 14 lows

*SUP 3: 116-175 Dec 15 low

*SUP 4: 116-155 Mar 10 low

*COMMENTARY* The decline continued this week, breaking below key 116-290 support

in the process. A low of 116-255 on Tuesday, just ahead of the next

important marker, the Oct 27 low at 116-252. A further loss here will swing

overall bias back to the downside and focus again on the Mar 10 low at 116-155.

In the interim, any recovery will now need to surpass 117-057/117-082 to be of

any consequence and the chance of a decent rally.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Key 124-155 Holds But 125-080 Still Caps Recovery

*RES 4: 125-255 Oct 13 high

*RES 3: 125-195 38.2% Fibo of 127-285/124-060

*RES 2: 125-150/160 Nov 7, Oct 19 highs

*RES 1: 125-080 Series hourly highs Nov 9

*PRICE: 124-280 @1130GMT

*SUP 1: 124-210/240 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 124-155/160 Hourly basing area Oct 25-26, Nov 14 low

*SUP 3: 124-060/065 Oct 25, Mar 29 lows

*SUP 4: 123-235 76.4% Fibo of 122-145/127-285

*COMMENTARY* The key 124-155 support level has withstood attention this week and

with near term conditions now oversold, there is encouragement for some

recovery. How much will be gauged by the reaction to firstly 125-080 resistance

and then the 125-150/125-195 region. Above the latter would trigger a better

correction of losses from the Sep 8 high at 127-285. Meanwhile 124-240/124-210

protects that still key 124-155 level.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 61.8% Fibo Level Holds, Meanwhile 154-10 Caps

*RES 4: 156-13 76.4% Fibo of 158-09/150-10

*RES 3: 155-04/08 Sep 25 high, 61.8% of 158-09/150-10

*RES 2: 154-26 Nov 8 high

*RES 1: 154-10 Nov 16 high

*PRICE: 153-17 @1131GMT

*SUP 1: 152-30 Nov 13 high, now support

*SUP 2: 152-18 Hourly support

*SUP 3: 152-01 Nov 12 low

*SUP 4: 151-31 Nov 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Has found some support from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at 152-01

and this has helped to reduce the immediate downside bias. The further move

above 153-01/153-18 is also encouraging and suggests there will be scope for a

higher 154-02/154-05 rise, where next questions are asked. Support as a result

also rises, 152-30/152-18 should now hold any setbacks, if the recovery is set

to continue.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) 61.8% Fibo Support From 98.455 Now The Focus

*RES 4: 98.580 Sep 14 high

*RES 3: 98.555 Aug 25 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 98.525 Sep 25, Sep 28 highs

*RES 1: 98.510 Oct 13 high

*PRICE: 98.465 @1135GMT

*SUP 1: 98.455 61.8% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 2: 98.410 76.4% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 3: 98.360 Dec 15 low

*SUP 4: 98.335 Mar 15 low

*COMMENTARY* Some movement last week, if only slight so far. 98.470 support has

finally given way, allowing the focus to switch to 98.455. This the 61.8% Fibo

retrace level of the 98.335-98.655 rally, seen between March and May earlier

this year. Resistance in the meantime hasn't really changed, while 98.455

remains intact, then it will take a move back above 98.510 to alter things. Loss

of 98.455 however, will trigger a deeper 98.410 fall.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]