MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 117-015/117-065 Break Needed To Add Upside Impetus

*RES 4: 117-187 Sep 20,21 lows, now resistance

*RES 3: 117-120 Nov 3 high

*RES 2: 117-052/065 Nov 15 high, 76.4% of 117-120/116-205

*RES 1: 117-015/020 Nov 20, Nov 28 highs

*PRICE: 116-300 @0855GMT

*SUP 1: 116-260 Nov 27 low

*SUP 2: 116-205 Nov 21 low

*SUP 3: 116-175 Dec 15 low

*SUP 4: 116-155 Mar 10 low

*COMMENTARY* The decline continued last week, a low of 116-205, as we try to

maintain a break below the Oct 27 low at 116-252. A sustained loss here will

swing the overall bias back to the downside and focus again on the Mar 10 low at

116-155. In the interim, resistance from 116-320 has been breached but will need

to surpass 117-015 and then 117-052/117-065, before the impetus for a near term

recovery will improve. Monday's 116-260 low now becomes nearest support.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Key 124-155 Holds But 125-080 Still Caps Recovery

*RES 4: 125-255 Oct 13 high

*RES 3: 125-195 38.2% Fibo of 127-285/124-060

*RES 2: 125-150/160 Nov 7, Oct 19 highs

*RES 1: 125-050/080 Series hourly highs in November

*PRICE: 124-315 @0900GMT

*SUP 1: 124-190 Nov 21 low

*SUP 2: 124-155/160 Hourly basing area Oct 25-26, Nov 14 low

*SUP 3: 124-060/065 Oct 25, Mar 29 lows

*SUP 4: 123-235 76.4% Fibo of 122-145/127-285

*COMMENTARY* The key 124-155 support level has withstood pressure this month

thereby offering some encouragement for a recovery. How much will be gauged by

the reaction to firstly 125-050/125-080 resistance and then the 125-150/125-195

region. Above the latter would trigger a better correction of losses from the

Sep 8 high at 127-285. Meanwhile 124-190 now protects that still key 124-155

level.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Rally Still Attempting To Clear 154-26 Resistance

*RES 4: 157-06 2% volatility band

*RES 3: 156-13 76.4% Fibo of 158-09/150-10

*RES 2: 155-04/08 Sep 25 high, 61.8% of 158-09/150-10

*RES 1: 154-26/27 Nov 8, Nov 28 highs

*PRICE: 154-09 @0904GMT

*SUP 1: 153-03 Nov 16 low

*SUP 2: 152-18 Hourly base Nov 13

*SUP 3: 152-01 Nov 12 low

*SUP 4: 151-11 Oct 30 low

*COMMENTARY* Still hammering away at 154-26 resistance, requiring a move through

here, in order to generate the interest and momentum for a further 155-08/156-13

rise, as we correct losses from the Sep 8 high at 158-09. As a result, support

comes initially from the Nov 16 low at 153-03, loss would caution now and

suggest the recovery is running out of steam and expose the 152-18/152-01 area.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) 61.8% Fibo Support At 98.455 Remains Under

Pressure

*RES 4: 98.555 Aug 25 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 98.525 Sep 25, Sep 28 highs

*RES 2: 98.510 Oct 13 high

*RES 1: 98.485/495 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.450 @0905GMT

*SUP 1: 98.445 Nov 21, 22 lows

*SUP 2: 98.410 76.4% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 3: 98.360 Dec 15 low

*SUP 4: 98.335 Mar 15 low

*COMMENTARY* Some movement this month, 98.470 support has given way, allowing

the focus to switch to 98.455. This the 61.8% Fibo retrace of the 98.335-98.655

rally, seen between March and May earlier this year. This remains under

pressure, lows of 98.445 last week, sustained break will see potential for a

deeper 98.410 fall next. Resistance in the meantime, falls slightly to

98.485-98.495 but it will still take a move back above 98.510 to alter things. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]