MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Back To Testing Toward Key 116-145 Support

*RES 4: 116-305 Nov 15 high

*RES 3: 116-282 Nov 28 high

*RES 2: 116-252/262 Nov 29 high, 3 month falling res line

*RES 1: 116-197/200 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 116-177 @1203GMT

*SUP 1: 116-145/155 Nov 21, Nov 29 lows

*SUP 2: 116-057 7 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: 115-267 3 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: 115-160 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The decline has continued, a low of 116-155, as we head back

towards the Nov 21 low at 116-145. A sustained loss of the latter will swing the

overall bias back to the downside and focus on two bear channel base projections

between 116-057 and 115-267. In the interim, resistance from 116-197/116-200 and

then more importantly 116-252/116-262. Require back through here before the

impetus for a near term recovery will improve.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Key 124-065/124-050 Support Remains Under Pressure

*RES 4: 124-315/320 7 week falling res line, Nov 28 high

*RES 3: 124-275 Nov 29 high

*RES 2: 124-230 Initial low Nov 29, now resistance

*RES 1: 124-155/175 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 124-100 @1225GMT

*SUP 1: 124-065 Nov 14 low

*SUP 2: 124-050 76.4% Fibo of 123-270/125-065

*SUP 3: 123-270 Oct 25, Oct 27 lows

*SUP 4: 123-155 7 week bear channel base projection

*COMMENTARY* The key 124-050/124-065 support area has withstood pressure this

month but with the failure to regain levels back above 124-320, pressure has

once again returned to the downside.  Loss of 124-050 will see the potential for

an added 123-270 fall next. That said, near term conditions are becoming

increasingly oversold, so a move back above 125-155/124-175 would provide some

respite and a move back up the recent range.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 151-19/151-11 Support Can Provide A Lift

*RES 4: 153-24 Nov 28 high

*RES 3: 153-10 Congestion area Nov 20-28

*RES 2: 152-31 Nov 28 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 152-14/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 152-01 @1240GMT

*SUP 1: 151-26 Intraday low

*SUP 2: 151-16/19 50% of 149-07/153-24,76.4% of 150-30/153-24

*SUP 3: 151-11 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: 150-30 Nov 10, 13 lows, 61.8% of 149-07/153-24

*COMMENTARY* Has pulled back rather swiftly after hammering away at

153-21/153-24 resistance, without success over the course of the month. The

subsequent fall now has support from dual Fibo levels from between 151-19/151-16

to stem the fall, ahead of the lower 1% volatility band at 151-11. Has become

oversold in the near term, so a move back above 152-15 would be helpful to any

recovery hopes.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) 98.300-98.310 Break Needed To Provide Respite

*RES 4: 98.365 Oct 30 high

*RES 3: 98.345 Oct 6 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 98.325 Nov 15 high

*RES 1: 98.300/310 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.270 @1255GMT

*SUP 1: 98.260 Mar 16, Nov 21 lows

*SUP 2: 98.240 Hourly support

*SUP 3: 98.200 Jan 26 high, Mar 15 low

*SUP 4: 98.185 61.8% Fibo of 97.535-98.240

*COMMENTARY* Some movement this month, support from 98.290 the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level has given way. A low of 98.260 seen so far, in line with the

previous Mar 16 base. Some overshoot to 98.240 can be allowed but any lower and

the dual support from 98.200 comes back into view. To provide any relief, then

an initial move back above 98.300-98.310 can be rewarded with a better

98.325-98.365 recovery.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]