MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Decline Finds Support From 8 Week Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: 116-282 Nov 28 high

*RES 3: 116-252 Nov 29 high

*RES 2: 116-205/227 3 month falling res line, Dec 1 high

*RES 1: 116-170/185 Dec 6 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: 116-097 @1138GMT

*SUP 1: 116-052 Dec 4 low

*SUP 2: 116-027 8 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: 115-210 3 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: 115-095 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The decline continued last week, losing support from the Nov 21 low

at 116-145 in the process. A low of 116-052 on Monday before bouncing. A

sustained loss of 116-145 will swing the overall bias back to the downside and

focus on two bear channel base projections between 116-027 and 115-210.

Resistance meanwhile from 116-170/185 and then more importantly 116-205/116-252.

Require back through here before things can improve.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 124-230/124-275 Still Proving A Near Term Cap

*RES 4: 125-065 Nov 8 high

*RES 3: 124-290/320 8 week falling res line, Nov 28 high

*RES 2: 124-275 Dec 1, Nov 29 highs

*RES 1: 124-230 Dec 6 high

*PRICE: 124-060 @1145GMT

*SUP 1: 123-295 Nov 30 low

*SUP 2: 123-270 Oct 25, Oct 27 lows

*SUP 3: 123-125 8 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: 123-055 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The key 124-050/124-065 support area gave way last Thursday, a low

of 123-295 before recovering on the back of some near term oversold conditions.

This culminated in a return to the Nov 29 high at 124-275, before once again

falling back towards that 123-295 low again. This is the protection to the late

October lows at 123-270 and the 8 week bear channel base projection at 123-125.

Meanwhile, 124-230/124-275 becomes near term resistance.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Wednesday's Rise Halted By Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: 155-04/08 Sep 25 high, 61.8% of 158-09/150-10

*RES 3: 154-23/26 76.4% 156-14/149-07, November highs, 1% vol

*RES 2: 154-18 Dec 6 high

*RES 1: 153-27 Hourly congestion area Dec 6-7

*PRICE: 152-25 @1152GMT

*SUP 1: 152-21 Dec 5 low

*SUP 2: 152-13 Hourly low Dec 4

*SUP 3: 151-26 Hourly base Dec 1

*SUP 4: 150-30 Nov 10, 13 lows

*COMMENTARY* A fresh rise on Wednesday, through 154-06 resistance but the rally

was halted by the upper 1% volatility band, at 154-19 on Wednesday. This has

risen by time, to join the previous area of congested resistance between

154-23/154-26, that capped rallies last month. As a result, have seen a pullback

below 153-06, which leaves Tuesday's 152-21 low as the protection against a

deeper 152-13/151-26 fall.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) Squeezing Lower After Break Below 98.260 Support

*RES 4: 98.365 Oct 30 high

*RES 3: 98.345 Oct 6 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 98.325 Nov 15 high

*RES 1: 98.295/305 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.230 @1158GMT

*SUP 1: 98.230 Dec 5 low

*SUP 2: 98.200 Jan 26 high, Mar 15 low

*SUP 3: 98.185 61.8% Fibo of 97.535-98.240

*SUP 4: 98.165 Mar 30 2015 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Some movement last month, support from 98.290 the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level gave way, followed by the Mar 16 base at 98.260. Now support from

98.240 is in trouble, a sustained break below and the dual support from 98.200

comes back into view. To provide any relief, then an initial move back above

98.295-98.305 is needed before thoughts can turn to a better 98.325-98.365

recovery.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]