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MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq
US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Recovery Falters Just Below 50% Fibo Retrace Level
*RES 4: 116-277/282 76.4% of 117-032/116-032, Nov 28 high
*RES 3: 116-227/230 Dec 1 high, 61.8% Fibo of 117-032/116-032
*RES 2: 116-190/192 Dec 13 high, 50% Fibo of 117-032/116-032
*RES 1: 116-167 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 116-125 @1135GMT
*SUP 1: 116-070/092 Hourly support, Dec 14 low
*SUP 2: 116-032 Dec 13 low
*SUP 3: 116-002 9 week bear channel base projection
*SUP 4: 115-162 3 month bear channel base projection
*COMMENTARY* The 116-052 area which provided previous protection to the downside
this month, was put under pressure on Wednesday. A low of 116-032 before seeing
a bounce back above 116-170/116-177 resistance. This now sees 116-192 as the
next Fibo retrace, the 50% in the fall seen since the 117-032 high of early
November. Will need to cross back above here, before chances improve for a
further 116-227/116-282 rise. Support moves to  116-092/116-070 ahead of
116-032.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 124-230/124-275 Still Main Near Term Resistance
*RES 4: 124-320 Nov 28 high
*RES 3: 124-265/275 9 week res line, Dec 1, Nov 29 highs
*RES 2: 124-210/230 Dec 13, Dec 6 highs
*RES 1: 124-190 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 124-145 @1140GMT
*SUP 1: 124-025/065 Hourly support
*SUP 2: 123-290/295 Dec 13, Nov 30 lows
*SUP 3: 123-270 Oct 25, Oct 27 lows
*SUP 4: 123-105 9 week bear channel base projection
*COMMENTARY* The 123-295 low from the end of last month came under pressure
again on Wednesday. Once again found the ability to bounce from 1123-290 but for
now still mired in resistance from below 124-230/124-275, requiring a move back
above the latter, before real interest in an upside resurgence will appear. In
the meantime, some earlier resistance from 124-190/124-210. Support
124-065/124-025 ahead of still important 123-295/123-270.
US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Recovers But Still Within Key 154-00/154-26 Area
*RES 4: 154-31 1% volatility band
*RES 3: 154-23/26 76.4% 156-14/149-07, November highs
*RES 2: 154-18 Dec 6 high
*RES 1: 154-00/06 76.4% Fibo of 154-18/152-05, Dec 14 high
*PRICE: 153-30 @1150GMT
*SUP 1: 153-04 Dec 14 low, hourly high Dec 13
*SUP 2: 152-17 Dec 8 low
*SUP 3: 152-05 Dec 12 low
*SUP 4: 151-26/28 Hourly base Dec 1, 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* A bounce from Tuesday's 152-05 low but so far this remains without
a clear break above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 154-00 and then more
importantly the 154-23/154-26 area. Will need to circumvent resistance from
here, if the latest rise is not to prove just corrective. Meanwhile, support
comes initially from 153-04/152-17, ahead of that 152-05 low. The latter now the
protection against a 151-26 fall.
     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) Wednesday Saw Move Toward 98.200 Support
*RES 4: 98.365 Oct 30 high
*RES 3: 98.345 Oct 6 low, now resistance
*RES 2: 98.325 Nov 15 high
*RES 1: 98.290/300 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 98.225 @1155GMT
*SUP 1: 98.210 Dec 13 low
*SUP 2: 98.200 Jan 26 high, Mar 15 low
*SUP 3: 98.185 61.8% Fibo of 97.535-98.240
*SUP 4: 98.165 Mar 30 2015 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Some movement last month, support from 98.290 the 76.4% Fibo
retrace level gave way, followed by the Mar 16 base at 98.260. Now support from
98.240 has broken, a sustained break below and the dual support from 98.200
comes back into view. To provide any relief, then an initial move back above
98.290-98.300 is needed before thoughts can turn to a better 98.325-98.365
recovery.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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