MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Approaches Long Term Support From 115-285/115-205

*RES 4: 116-190 Dec 13 high

*RES 3: 116-147 Hourly recovery high Dec 14

*RES 2: 116-117 Dec 18 high

*RES 1: 116-040/067 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 115-302 @0843GMT

*SUP 1: 115-282/285 Dec 21 low, Feb 2011 low

*SUP 2: 115-205 5 year bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: 115-115 3 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: 115-012 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Fresh downside pressure this week following the inability to

traverse the 50% Fibo retrace level at 116-192 last Wednesday. Have finally seen

116-032 support buckle, the subsequent decline moving slightly below the 10 week

bear channel base and now approaching long term support between 115-285/115-205.

Meanwhile, 116-040/116-067 now provides resistance. Above and congested

116-117/116-147 lies ahead of any attempt at a real recovery.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 10 Week Bear Channel Base Comes Under Scrutiny

*RES 4: 124-210 Dec 13 high

*RES 3: 124-135 Dec 18 high

*RES 2: 124-070 Dec 15 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 123-290/295 Dec 13, Nov 30 lows, now resistance

*PRICE: 123-165 @0845GMT

*SUP 1: 123-125/135 Dec 21 low, 10 week bear channel base 

*SUP 2: 123-115 Mar 17 low

*SUP 3: 122-250 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: 122-205 Mar 10, Mar 14 lows

*COMMENTARY* 123-290/123-295 support gave way on Tuesday. The subsequent fall

breaking below the long term 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 123-235. A low of

123-125 seen so far, just below the 10 week bear channel base at 123-135 today,

before bouncing again on the back of some oversold hourly conditions.

123-290/123-295 still near term resistance, above needed before the chance of a

better 124-070/124-135 recovery. Below 123-135 and look to 123-115/122-205 next.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Focus Now On Reaction To 150-10/150-07 Support

*RES 4: 153-15 Dec 19 high

*RES 3: 153-02 Dec 18 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 152-05 Dec 12 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 151-19 Underside broken 2017 bull channel

*PRICE: 151-02 @0850GMT

*SUP 1: 150-07/10 May 11, Oct 27 lows

*SUP 2: 149-15 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: 148-24 76.4% Fibo of 145-26/158-09

*SUP 4: 147-14/15 Mar 16, Mar 17 lows

*COMMENTARY* Failure to trouble 154-23/154-26 resistance this month has finally

proved the catalyst for a sharp decline. This losing support from 153-22 on

Tuesday has seen the Dec 12 low at 152-05 give way, as well as important support

from between 151-17/151-07. Below here and focus will switch to 150-10/150-07.

Meanwhile, resistance from 151-19 but back above 152-05 would likely provide

some 153-02/153-15 respite.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) Moving Closer Toward 98.200 Support

*RES 4: 98.365 Oct 30 high

*RES 3: 98.345 Oct 6 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 98.325 Nov 15 high

*RES 1: 98.290/300 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.210 @0854GMT

*SUP 1: 98.200 Jan 26 high, Mar 15 low

*SUP 2: 98.185 61.8% Fibo of 97.535-98.240

*SUP 3: 98.165 Mar 30 2015 high, now support

*SUP 4: 98.080 Dec 2015 low

*COMMENTARY* Some movement last month, support from 98.290 the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level gave way, followed by the Mar 16 base at 98.260. Now support from

98.240 has broken, a sustained break below and the dual support from 98.200

comes back into view. To provide any relief, then an initial move back above

98.290-98.300 is needed, before thoughts can turn to a better 98.325-98.365

recovery.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]