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MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq
US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Long Term Support Still Intact, 116-067 Resistance
*RES 4: 116-190 Dec 13 high
*RES 3: 116-147 Hourly recovery high Dec 14
*RES 2: 116-117 Dec 18 high
*RES 1: 116-067 Dec 18 low, now resistance
*PRICE: 116-002 @1055GMT
*SUP 1: 115-287/292 Hourly support
*SUP 2: 115-270 Dec 26 low
*SUP 3: 115-197 5 year bear channel base projection
*SUP 4: 115-055 3 month bear channel base projection
*COMMENTARY* Fresh downside pressure last week following the inability to
traverse the 50% Fibo retrace level at 116-192 earlier in the month. A low of
115-270 before finding some support, ahead of the longer term supports between
115-197/115-055. Meanwhile, 116-067 still provides resistance. Above and
congested 116-117/116-147 lies ahead of any attempt at a real recovery.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Attempting Recovery After Hold Above 123-115
*RES 4: 124-210 Dec 13 high
*RES 3: 124-135 Dec 18 high
*RES 2: 124-070 Dec 15 low, now resistance
*RES 1: 124-025 Dec 29 high
*PRICE: 123-235 @1100GMT
*SUP 1: 123-170 Jan 2 low
*SUP 2: 123-115/125 Mar 17, Dec 21 lows
*SUP 3: 123-100 3 month bear channel base 
*SUP 4: 122-205 Mar 10, Mar 14 lows
*COMMENTARY* 123-290/123-295 support gave way late last month. The subsequent
fall breaking below the long term 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 123-235. A low of
123-125 seen so far, just above the Mar 17 low at 123-115 and also the 3 month
bear channel base at 123-100 today. The subsequent recovery has moved above
123-290/123-295 but still needs through 124-025/124-070 before the chance of
seeing a better recovery. Nearest support moves up to 123-170.
US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Recovery So Far Lacks A 153-17 Break
*RES 4: 154-26/27 Nov 8, Nov 28 highs
*RES 3: 154-15/18 Dec 15, Dec 6 highs
*RES 2: 153-15/17 Dec 19 high, 76.4% Fibo of 154-15/150-14
*RES 1: 153-03/04 Dec 29, Dec 27 highs
*PRICE: 151-28 @1106GMT
*SUP 1: 151-12 Jan 2 low
*SUP 2: 151-07/08 Dec 22, Dec 21 highs, now support
*SUP 3: 150-14 Dec 20 low
*SUP 4: 150-07/10 May 11, Oct 27 lows
*COMMENTARY* The decline at the back end of last month found support from
150-14, keeping us above the key 150-10/150-07 lows from October and May last
year. The subsequent recovery has been impressive, reaching above 152-30
resistance, but with a high of 153-04, so far remains below the next resistance
of note, the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 153-17. As a result, support moves to
151-12 and then more importantly 151-08/151-07.
     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) 98.200 Support Holds Under Close Investigation
*RES 4: 98.345 Oct 6 low, now resistance
*RES 3: 98.325 Nov 15 high
*RES 2: 98.290 Nov 14 low, Nov 22, 24, 28 & 29 highs
*RES 1: 98.250 Dec 14 high
*PRICE: 98.220 @1109GMT
*SUP 1: 98.200/205 Jan 26 high, Mar 15 low & Dec 21-26 lows
*SUP 2: 98.185 61.8% Fibo of 97.535-98.240
*SUP 3: 98.165 Mar 30 2015 high, now support
*SUP 4: 98.080 Dec 2015 low
*COMMENTARY* The 98.200-98.205 area came under severe examination at the end of
last month but has so far rebuffed all challenges. The subsequent recovery is so
far embryonic in nature, requiring a move back above 98.250 before the impetus
will be seen for an assault back on 98.290. Will require a break back above here
however, before starting to consider higher corrective potential of the fall
seen from the Sep 8 high at 98.585. Loss of 98.200 will disappoint now.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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