MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Downside Lacking Enthusiasm, 116-027/067 Resistance

*RES 4: 116-147 Hourly recovery high Dec 14

*RES 3: 116-117 Dec 18 high

*RES 2: 116-065/067 Dec 29 high, Dec 18 low

*RES 1: 116-027 Jan 3 high

*PRICE: 115-247 @1121GMT

*SUP 1: 115-227/235 Intraday, Jan 8lows

*SUP 2: 115-192 5 year bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: 115-017 3 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: 114-250 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Fresh downside pressure continues this week following the inability

to traverse the 50% Fibo retrace level at 116-192 last month. A low of 115-227

today before again finding some support, as the downside tries to find some

impetus, ahead of the longer term supports between 115-192/115-017. Meanwhile,

116-027/116-067 still provides main resistance. Above and the chance of a decent

recovery improves.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Decline Nears 3 Month Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: 124-135 Dec 18 high

*RES 3: 124-070 Dec 15 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 124-025 Dec 29 high

*RES 1: 123-285 Jan 3 high

*PRICE: 123-125 @1130GMT

*SUP 1: 123-075 3 month bear channel base 

*SUP 2: 122-205 Mar 10, Mar 14 lows

*SUP 3: 122-145 Dec 15 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: 122-070 Sep 2013 low

*COMMENTARY* 123-290/123-295 support gave way late last month. The subsequent

fall breaking below the long term 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 123-235. A low of

123-095 seen so far, just above the 3 month bear channel base at 123-075 today.

The most recent fall from the Dec 29 high at 124-025 is now approaching near

term oversold conditions and needs to pick up some speed, else the threat of a

correction will arise, 123-085 the bar to that 124-025 high again.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 151-07/151-02 Provides Near Term Support 

*RES 4: 154-15/18 Dec 15, Dec 6 highs

*RES 3: 153-15/17 Dec 19 high, 76.4% Fibo of 154-15/150-14

*RES 2: 153-03/04 Dec 29, Dec 27 highs

*RES 1: 152-21 Jan 5 high

*PRICE: 151-11 @1140GMT

*SUP 1: 151-02/07 76.4% of 150-14/153-03, Dec 22 low

*SUP 2: 150-19 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: 150-14 Dec 20 low

*SUP 4: 150-07/10 May 11, Oct 27 lows

*COMMENTARY* The decline at the back end of last month found support from

150-14, keeping us above the key 150-10/150-07 lows from October and May last

year. The subsequent recovery has reached above 152-30 resistance, but with a

high of 153-04, so far remains below the next resistance of note, the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at 153-17. As a result, support moves to 151-07/151-02, with the

lower 1% volatility band at 150-19 today, then protecting that 150-14 low again.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) 98.185-98.165 Next Support Area As Decline

Continues

*RES 4: 98.345 Oct 6 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 98.325 Nov 15 high

*RES 2: 98.290 Nov 14 low, Nov 22, 24, 28 & 29 highs

*RES 1: 98.245/250 Dec 28, 29 & Dec 14 highs

*PRICE: 98.190 @1142GMT

*SUP 1: 98.175/180 Jan 4 low, 1.618 swing of 98.205-98.245

*SUP 2: 98.165 Mar 30 2015 high, now support

*SUP 3: 98.080 Dec 2015 low

*SUP 4: 98.055 Nov 2015 low

*COMMENTARY* Have finally seen a slip below 98.200, opening the way for a look

at 98.185-98.165 where the next layer of support lies. Any lower than this and

there is the chance for a potentially deeper fall, as not much is currently then

evident ahead of the December 2015 low at 98.080. Meanwhile, the failure to

recover through 98.245-98.250 has been the catalyst for the latest fall, still

need back above here for any respite.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]