MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Pressure Returns After Failure Below 115-222 

*RES 4: 116-065/067 Dec 29 high, Dec 18 low

*RES 3: 116-002 Jan 5 high

*RES 2: 115-270 Dec 26 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 115-200/222 Jan 16, Jan 11 highs

*PRICE: 115-137 @1116GMT

*SUP 1: 115-117 Jan 12 low

*SUP 2: 115-027 9 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: 114-290 3 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: 114-252 61.8% Fibo of 108-152/124-320

*COMMENTARY* A spike low last Friday found support from 115-117 before the

weight of some near term oversold conditions prompted a bounce. This now sees

nearest resistance from 115-200 and then the Jan 11 high at 115-222. Above here

would encourage some more correction of losses seen from the Dec 29 high at

116-065, beginning with the Dec 26 low at 115-270. In the interim, a loss of

115-117 would open up 115-027/114-290 next, ahead of long term Fibo support.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 123-050 Again Frustrates Recovery Efforts

*RES 4: 123-280/285 Jan 5, Jan 3 highs

*RES 3: 123-155 5 week falling resistance line

*RES 2: 123-125 Dec 21 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 123-050 Jan 11 high

*PRICE: 122-275 @1121GMT

*SUP 1: 122-200/205 Jan 12 base, Mar 10, Mar 14 lows

*SUP 2: 122-145/150 Dec 15 2016 low, 5 week bear channel base

*SUP 3: 122-070 Sep 2013 low

*SUP 4: 121-315 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Has again found support from around the Mar 10-14 lows from last

year, a base of 122-200 seen last Friday, before bouncing on the back of some

oversold near term conditions. In this respect, a move back above 123-050 will

commence a correction of losses sustained since the 124-025 high on Dec 29. In

this event, look to 123-125/123-155 for the next band of resistance.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Correcting After 149-03 Support Hold Last Week

*RES 4: 152-21 Jan 5 high

*RES 3: 151-22 5 week falling resistance line

*RES 2: 151-12/19 Jan 2, Jan 4 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: 151-03/08 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 150-25 @1125GMT

*SUP 1: 149-17 Jan 11, Jan 12 lows

*SUP 2: 149-03 Jan 10 low

*SUP 3: 148-24 76.4% Fibo of 145-26/158-09

*SUP 4: 148-01/02 2% vol band, 5 week bear channel proj'n 

*COMMENTARY* Managed to hold 149-03 support last week and some near term

oversold conditions have allowed a bounce. Look to 151-03/151-08 for immediate

resistance, as we continue to correct losses initially from the Dec 27 high at

153-04. As a consequence, support rises to 149-17 and this currently protects

the downside from another grilling. Above 151-08 and recovery can stretch to

151-12/151-22, where next questions are asked.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) Continues To Slip Lower

*RES 4: 98.245 Dec 28-29 highs

*RES 3: 98.225 Jan 3 high

*RES 2: 98.205 Dec 20-27 lows, Jan 5 high

*RES 1: 98.180 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.140 @1129GMT

*SUP 1: 98.135 Jan 16 low

*SUP 2: 98.080 Dec 2015 low

*SUP 3: 98.055 Nov 2015 low

*SUP 4: 97.995 38.2% Fibo of 95.980-99.240

*COMMENTARY* It began with the slip below 98.205 support on Jan 4 and has been

followed by a further break below 98.165 last Friday. As a result of this, there

is the chance for a potentially deeper fall, as not much is currently evident

ahead of the December 2015 low at 98.080. Meanwhile, 98.130 held the decline on

Tuesday. Nearest resistance falls to 98.180, back above would provide some

respite but that 98.205 level now provides a tougher ask.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]