MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Today's Rally Looks Like An Exhaustion Spike

*RES 4: 114-207 Apr 2 high

*RES 3: 114-180 61.8% Fibo of 115-212/112-250

*RES 2: 114-117/122 Intraday high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: 114-075/085 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 114-017 @1040GMT

*SUP 1: 113-307 May 28 high, now support

*SUP 2: 113-265 Intraday low

*SUP 3: 113-242 May 25 high, now support 

*SUP 4: 113-182/187 May 28 low, May 24 high

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to gain considerably over the last week or so but

today's 113-265/114-117 rise looks like an exhaustion spike. This has basically

seen a recovery to the upper 1% volatility band, a known inhibitor to gains. The

subsequent fall does nothing to question this so far, look to 113-307 and then

the day's 113-265 low for support and clues. A loss of the latter would open up

some further correction of the rise from 112-250.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Continues To Rise After Dip To 6 Year Median Line

*RES 4: 121-120 Apr 2 high

*RES 3: 121-035 Apr 11 high

*RES 2: 120-320 Intraday high

*RES 1: 120-275 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 120-145 @1100GMT

*SUP 1: 120-090/100 Hourly support, May 28 high

*SUP 2: 120-030 Intraday low

*SUP 3: 119-315 May 4 high, now support

*SUP 4: 119-215 May 28 low

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to recover over the course of the last week or so,

since the dip to 118-105 and the near miss of the 6 year median line at 118-040.

Today's latest rise to 120-320 takes us back within the preceding 6 year bear

channel, with 121-035/121-120 the next resistance of interest. Any higher and

have to take account of the 38.2% Fibo retrace at 121-315 and the 2016 low at

122-145. Support 120-100/120-090 and then the day's 120-030 low.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Rally Falters Just Beneath Apr 17 High At 146-02

*RES 4: 147-03 Apr 2 high, 38.2% of 158-09/140-05

*RES 3: 146-00/02 Intraday, Apr 17 high

*RES 2: 145-20/25 Intraday hourly highs

*RES 1: 145-14/17 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 145-06 @1115GMT

*SUP 1: 144-17/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 144-04 Intraday low

*SUP 3: 143-06/09 May 24 high, May 28 low

*SUP 4: 142-12 Congestion area May 23-24

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to rally well since seeing the 140-05 low on May 18.

Today's latest rise has seen a spike to 146-00, just shy of the Apr 17 high at

146-02. The subsequent fall is on the back of an accumulation of overbought

conditions with 144-20/144-17 offering support against a return to the day's

144-04 low. Any lower will caution and suggest a correction of those gains from

140-05 is underway. Meanwhile, 145-14/145-25 stands in the way of a fresh rise.

US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (M18) 97.735-97740 Break Still Needed To Improve Outlook

*RES 4: 97.820 Mar 2 high, 23.6% Fibo of 98.550-97.595

*RES 3: 97.770 76.4% Fibo of 97.820-97.595

*RES 2: 97.735/740 61.8% of 97.820-97.595, Mar 27-28 highs 

*RES 1: 97.715 Hourly congestion May 14-15

*PRICE: 97.705 @1120GMT

*SUP 1: 97.665 May 17 low

*SUP 2: 97.625 Congestion area Apr 18-May 3

*SUP 3: 97.585/595 Jun 29 2015 low, May 8 low

*SUP 4: 97.560 1.618 swing of 97.630-97.740

*COMMENTARY* Saw a move back above the 6 month falling resistance line earlier

in the month, at 97.565 by time this week and this has encouraged some recovery.

We have subsequently seen a return towards 97.735-97.740. The former a 61.8%

Fibo retrace level, the latter the Mar 27-28 highs. Will need an eventual break

through here, before gains can be extended toward 97.770 next. Support 97.665

but it is 97.625 that currently protects against a 97.595 return.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]