MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Tuesday's Rally Looks Like An Exhaustion Spike

*RES 4: 114-152 May 29 high

*RES 3: 114-095 Initial pullback low May 29, now resistance

*RES 2: 114-057 Intraday recovery high

*RES 1: 113-312 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 113-230 @1035GMT

*SUP 1: 113-225 38.2% Fibo of 112-147/114-152

*SUP 2: 113-172 May 29 low

*SUP 3: 113-150 May 25 high, 50% Fibo of 112-147/114-152

*SUP 4: 113-090/092 May 28 low, May 24 high

*COMMENTARY* Had continued to gain considerably, especially over the last week

or so but Tuesday's 113-172/114-152 rise looks like an exhaustion spike. This

has basically seen a recovery to the upper 1% volatility band, a known inhibitor

to gains. The subsequent fall does nothing to question this so far, look to

113-225 and then that 113-1782 low for support and clues. A loss of the latter

would open up some further correction of the rise from 112-147.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Correcting After Tuesday's Sharp Rise

*RES 4: 121-030 May 29 high

*RES 3: 120-240/265 Intraday hourly high, hourly base May 29

*RES 2: 120-205 Hourly recovery high May 30

*RES 1: 120-140/145 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 120-030 @1100GMT

*SUP 1: 119-285/290 38.2% of 117-300/121-030, hourly support

*SUP 2: 119-215/245 May 25 high, May 29 low

*SUP 3: 119-165 50% Fibo of 117-300/121-030

*SUP 4: 119-110 May 28 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery since the dip to 117-300 on May 17, resulted in a

sharp spike higher to 121-030 yesterday. Has subsequently seen a decent

pullback, as a result of some near term overbought conditions, now nearing a

38.2% Fibo retrace of that 117-300/121-030 rise. In the interim, resistance

comes from 120-140/120-145, above would allow a higher 120-205/120-265 bounce.

Below 119-285 and the correction can continue, 119-245/119-165 then possible.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Deep Pullback After Tuesday's 145-28 Spike High

*RES 4: 145-28 May 29 high

*RES 3: 145-12 Intraday hourly recovery high

*RES 2: 144-28 Intraday hourly congestion area

*RES 1: 144-13/17 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 143-27 @1120GMT

*SUP 1: 143-27 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 143-09/11 May 29 low, May 4 high

*SUP 3: 142-11/14 May 24 high, May 28 low

*SUP 4: 141-24/27 May 25 low, 61.8% of 139-11/145-28

*COMMENTARY* Had continued to rally well since seeing the 139-11 low on May 18.

Tuesday's latest rise has seen a spike to 145-28, just shy of the Apr 17 high at

146-02. The subsequent fall is on the back of an accumulation of overbought

conditions with 143-27 offering initial support against a return to yesterday's

143-09 low. Any lower will caution and suggest a deeper correction of those

gains from 139-11 is underway. Meanwhile, 144-13/145-12 becomes resistance.

US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (U18) 97.680 The Main Resistance To Current Recovery

*RES 4: 97.720/25 23.6% 98.505-97.475, 61.8% 97.880-97.475

*RES 3: 97.705/710 Mar 2 high, Feb 2 low

*RES 2: 97.680 Mar 28 high

*RES 1: 97.640 May 29 high

*PRICE: 97.585 @1145GMT

*SUP 1: 97.555/575 May 28 low, May 14 high

*SUP 2: 97.535 Congestion area May 15-18

*SUP 3: 97.500/510 May 17-22 lows

*SUP 4: 97.475 Apr 25, May 8 lows

*COMMENTARY* Saw a move back above the 6 month falling resistance line earlier

in the month, which has fallen by time to 97.425 this week and this has

encouraged some recovery. We have subsequently seen a rally back to 97.640 so

far, the Mar 28 high at 97.680 the next resistance of consequence higher. As a

result, support rises to 97.575-97.555, although 97.535-97.500 provides a

stronger base below. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]