MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Fresh Fall Tests Mettle Of 113-050/113-037 Support

*RES 4: 113-240/255 Jul 2, Jun 28 highs

*RES 3: 113-210/215 Jul 3, Jul 5, Jul 19 highs

*RES 2: 113-175 Jul 23 high

*RES 1: 113-142 Jul 20 low, now resistance

*PRICE: 113-082 @0940GMT

*SUP 1: 113-045/050 Jul 24, Jun 21 lows

*SUP 2: 113-037 Jul 12 low, 76.4% of 113-100/113-210

*SUP 3: 112-290/300 Jun 13 low, 76.4% of 112-147/114-152

*SUP 4: 112-260 Congestion area mid May

*COMMENTARY* Has moved below 113-100/113-095 support taking us out of the recent

consolidation range and once again eyeing 113-050/113-037 support. These now

become the protection to the main support area, which is still located between

112-300/112-290. Have to remain above the latter or overall bias switches to

lower again. Meanwhile, last Friday's 113-142 low now provides immediate

resistance, with Monday's 113-175 high, of more consequence above.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Loss Of 119-265 Sees End To Recent Range Trading

*RES 4: 120-185 76.4% Fibo of 121-030/118-295

*RES 3: 120-135/150 Jul 5, Jun 28 & May 31 highs

*RES 2: 120-035 Jul 23 high

*RES 1: 119-300 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 119-215 @0946GMT

*SUP 1: 119-125/135 Jul 24, Jun 21 lows

*SUP 2: 119-105 76.4% Fibo of 118-295/120-200

*SUP 3: 118-295 Jun 13 low

*SUP 4: 118-255 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from last month's dip to 118-295 has so far been

capped by 120-145. The subsequent pullback has now broken below 119-300/119-265

support. Loss of the latter cautions and suggests a deeper 119-135/119-105 fall,

as retracements of those gains from 118-295 begin to bite. On the topside, a

move back above 119-300 would assist but yesterday's 120-035 high presents a

tougher proposition. Below 119-105 and the June low at 118-295 beckons.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Continues Retreat From Key 145-25/145-28 Area

*RES 4: 145-18 Jul 19 high

*RES 3: 145-00 Jul 12 low, now resistance

*RES 2: 144-12 Jul 23 high

*RES 1: 144-00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 143-15 @0950GMT

*SUP 1: 142-21/27 Jul 24 low, 50% Fibo of 139-11/146-11

*SUP 2: 142-18 Jun 11 low

*SUP 3: 142-01 Jun 7 low, 61.8% Fibo of 139-11/146-11

*SUP 4: 141-00 76.4% Fibo of 139-11/146-11

*COMMENTARY* Broke through the 145-16 area early in the month and has been

followed by a test toward the equality rise target at 145-25 and the May 30 high

at 145-28. Meanwhile, the subsequent pullback has now lost key support from

143-30. Loss here suggests scope to see a further 142-27/142-01 fall. In the

interim, resistance from 144-00 and then Monday's 144-12 high. Back above here

needed before any respite is likely.

US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (U18) 97.560 Break Allows A Higher 97.580-97.600 Rise

*RES 4: 97.680 Mar 28 high, 50% Fibo of 97.880-97.475

*RES 3: 97.640 May 29 high

*RES 2: 97.600 76.4% Fibo of 97.640-97.475

*RES 1: 97.580/585 61.8% of 97.640-97.475, Jul 24 high

*PRICE: 97.580 @0954GMT

*SUP 1: 97.520 Jun 20-22 lows

*SUP 2: 97.500 Jun 14 low

*SUP 3: 97.475 Apr 25, May 8 lows

*SUP 4: 97.425 50% Fibo of 95.695-99.155

*COMMENTARY* Saw a move back above the 9 month falling resistance line in early

May and this has been the precursor to some recovery. We have subsequently seen

a rally back to 97.640 where the rally stalled. As a result, there has been a

fresh fall below 97.500 support, although the decline has been held by the

stronger 97.475 level. This remains key to overall direction. Nearest resistance

97.580-97.585, although above 97.600 needed for impetus.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]