MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Finds Support From Key Near Term Level

*RES 4: $1.1881 June 2010 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1836/55 2% vol band, 1.618 swing $1.1777-$1.1650

*RES 2: $1.1777/94 Jul 27 high, 4 month bull channel proj'n

*RES 1: $1.1735/45 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1711 @0912GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1650 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1613 Jul 26 low

*SUP 3: $1.1583 Jul 18 high, now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1549 6 week rising support line

*COMMENTARY* Fresh upside interest produced a rally which has taken us slightly

above $1.1773, the swing target of the recent $1.1712-$1.1613 fall but yet to

test the 4 month bull channel top projection at $1.1794. Some overbought

conditions currently being rectified, support comes from above $1.1650. Loss

here would caution and suggest the power of the rise is beginning to wane.

Directly above $1.1794 and the 2% volatility band then comes into play.

CABLE TECHS: Falters So Far At Edge Of 1.3165-$1.3173 Resistance Band

*RES 4: $1.3173 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3159/65 Jul 27 high, 1.618 swing $1.3030-$1.2812

*RES 2: $1.3135  Jul 27 hourly highs/lows 

*RES 1: $1.3100/06 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3092 @0919GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3050 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3020 Jul 21 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2989/90 Jul 24 low, 6 week rising support line

*SUP 4: $1.2933 Jul 20 low

*COMMENTARY* Broke above the previous $1.3126 high, the next band of resistance

seen as situated between $1.3165-$1.3173. Support from $1.3106 has subsequently

been lost, thereby opening up some corrective potential with $1.3050 now the

brake to a $1.3020-$1.2989 fall. The latter important. Resistance

$1.3100-$1.3135 but directly above $1.3173 and the swing target at $1.3245 and

then $1.3253, the equality rise from $1.2812, are next objectives.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Still Holding Above Key Y110.62-Y110.48 Support Area

*RES 4: Y112.42 Jul 20 high

*RES 3: Y112.10/20 38.2% of Y114.50-Y110.62, Jul 26 high

*RES 2: Y111.85 Initial pullback low Jul 26, now resistance

*RES 1: Y111.55/72 Hourly resistance, intraday high

*PRICE: Y111.21 @0924GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.78/83 Jul 27, Jul 25 lows

*SUP 2: Y110.48/62 1% vol, 61.8% Y108.13-Y114.50, Jul 24 low

*SUP 3: Y110.16 76.4% Fibo of Y108.82-Y114.50

*SUP 4: Y109.63 76.4% Y108.13-Y114.50, swing Y110.62-Y112.20

*COMMENTARY* Unable to break free of the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at Y112.10 on

Wednesday, a high of Y112.20 before succumbing to a fresh fall. The subsequent

loss of the Jul 24 high at Y111.32 has seen near term bias return to the

downside, yesterday's Y110.78 low, now protecting the key Y110.62-Y110.48 area.

Lose here and not much to stop a further Y110.16-Y109.63 decline. Back above

Y111.85 resistance currently needed for respite. 

EURO-YEN TECHS: Still Trying For A Break Of Y130.62-Y130.77 Highs

*RES 4: Y131.52 1.618 swing of Y130.51-Y128.87

*RES 3: Y131.06 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y130.77 Jul 11 high 

*RES 1: Y130.59/62 Jul 25, Jul 26 highs

*PRICE: Y130.27 @0931GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.70/75 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y129.55 Jul 27 low

*SUP 3: Y129.25 Jul 25 low

*SUP 4: Y128.87 Jul 24 low 

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from Y129.94 yesterday, thereby allowing a pullback to

the top of the next Y129.58-Y129.25 support area. This has helped to remove some

of the week's earlier overbought conditions but would benefit from a move back

above Y130.35 now. This would bring the Y130.62-Y130.77 highs back into focus,

above which there is scope to continue the rally towards Y131.28-Y131.52 next.

As a result, support comes from Y129.70-75, loss would caution again.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8960-70 Break Needed To Resume Rally

*RES 4: Stg0.9052 Nov 2 high

*RES 3: Stg0.9028 Nov 9 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8995 Jul 21 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8960/70 Jul 25 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8944 @0936GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8891/99 Jul 27, Jul 26 lows

*SUP 2: Stg0.8867 Hourly base Jul 20

*SUP 3: Stg0.8825/29 1% volatility band, Jul 19 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8813 12 week rising suppt line

*COMMENTARY* Still in corrective mode after last week's rally to Stg0.8995, took

us above the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8983. This of the previous

Stg0.9402-Stg0.8305 fall seen between Oct-Dec last year. Support from last

Tuesday's Stg0.8899 high came under pressure on Thursday, a low of Stg0.8891

seen, really need to hold here, if the near term bias is to remain for higher.

Resistance comes from Stg0.8960-70.

GOLD TECHS: Continues To Move Back Up The 5 Month Range

*RES 4: $1281.5 Jun 14 high

*RES 3: $1274.6 Jun 6 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1296.1-$1204.8

*RES 2: $1271.4 Hourly resistance

*RES 1: $1265.5 Jul 27 high

*PRICE: $1259.6 @0938GMT

*SUP 1: $1254.5 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1251.9 Initial rally high Jul 26, now support

*SUP 3: $1243.9 Jul 26 low

*SUP 4: $1235.4 Jul 20 low

*COMMENTARY* The move back up the 5 month range continues, with the latest move

through both the June highs at $1258.9 and also the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

$1261.2. A high on Thursday at $1265.0 but the $1271.4 and then the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at $1274.6 currently look more worthy targets. In the interim,

support also on the rise, $1254.5 initially and then more importantly in the

near term from $1251.9.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]