MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pullback Holds Above $1.1815-$1.1777 Support

*RES 4: $1.2005 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.1961 1.618 swing of $1.1911-$1.1830

*RES 2: $1.1921 Equality rise from $1.1119 to $1.0494-$1.1296

*RES 1: $1.1906/11 Max 5th wave target from $1.1650, Aug 2 hi 

*PRICE: $1.1883 @0858GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1815/30 Hourly support, Aug 3 low

*SUP 2: $1.1777/85 Jul 27 high, Aug 1 low

*SUP 3: $1.1750 Congestion area Jul 28-31

*SUP 4: $1.1712 Jul 25 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Entered into the early stages of the next $1.1906-$1.1921 target

zone. This the maximum 5th wave objective in the rally from $1.1650 and the

equality rise move from $1.1119. Thursday saw some correction of some overbought

conditions with support from between $1.1815-$1.1777 remaining untouched. Only

loss of the latter will spoil recent upside momentum and suggest that a deeper

correction is required. Above $1.1921 and look to $1.1961 next.

CABLE TECHS: Pullback Initially Corrects Gains From $1.3050

*RES 4: $1.3322 8 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: $1.3253/69 Equality rise from $1.2812, Aug 3 high

*RES 2: $1.3238 Aug 3 hourly recovery high

*RES 1: $1.3175/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3146 @0905GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3112 Aug 3 low

*SUP 2: $1.3097 Jul 31 low

*SUP 3: $1.3050/65 Jul 27 low, 7 week rising support line

*SUP 4: $1.3015 76.4% Fibo of $1.2933-$1.3268

*COMMENTARY* A high of $1.3269, just above the top of the anticipated

$1.3245-$1.3253 resistance zone. The subsequent fall looks to initially correct

gains seen from the Jul 27 low at $1.3050. Support from around the $1.3130-35

area has given way, with the Jul 31 low at $1.3097 a potentially stronger level

below. This protects against a further $1.3065-$1.3050 fall. Nearest resistance

of note from $1.3175-$1.3190 and then $1.3238.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Downside Pressure Resumes After 23.6% Fibo Retrace Caps

*RES 4: Y111.72 Jul 27 high

*RES 3: Y111.29 Jul 28 high

*RES 2: Y110.98 Aug 2 high

*RES 1: Y110.55/70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y110.10 @0913GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.84 Aug 3 low

*SUP 2: Y109.63 76.4% Y108.13-Y114.50, swing Y110.62-Y112.20

*SUP 3: Y109.43 4 month rising support line

*SUP 4: Y109.25 1.618 swing of Y109.91-Y110.98

*COMMENTARY* Support found from Y109.91 on Tuesday, slightly below the lower 1%

volatility band at the time but so far keeping us from a test to what looks

stronger support from Y109.63 and the 4 month support line at Y109.43. The

subsequent rise having moved back above Y110.78 has seen resistance from the

23.6% Fibo retrace at Y110.98 frustrate gains. Will need to clear here before

thoughts can turn to Y111.29-Y111.72. Subsequent loss of Y110.15 is a concern.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Pullback Sees Y130.44-Y130.15 As Next Support Area

*RES 4: Y132.96 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Y132.18 1.618 swing of Y130.77-Y128.49

*RES 2: Y131.41/52 Aug 2 high, 1.618 swing of Y130.51-Y128.87

*RES 1: Y131.10/20 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y130.82 @0922GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.44 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y130.15/20 Hourly congestion Aug 1

*SUP 3: Y129.84 Aug 1 low

*SUP 4: Y129.55 Jul 27, 28, Jul 31 lows

*COMMENTARY* Support from Y130.44, in line with a 61.8% Fibo retrace of the

previous Y129.84-Y131.41 rise, has held the pullback so far. This and the

congested Y130.15-20 area are the near term protection against anything more

untoward at present. That said, will now need to see gains back above Y131.10-20

before the upside is back on track again, with Y131.52-Y132.18 the next

potential target area above the week's previous Y131.41 high.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Moves Toward The Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Stg0.9143 76.4% of Stg0.9402-Stg0.8305, Oct 10 high

*RES 3: Stg0.9135 2% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.9058 1.618 swing of Stg0.8994-Stg0.8891

*RES 1: Stg0.9049/52 Aug 3, Nov 2 highs, 1% volatility band, 

*PRICE: Stg0.9032 @0930GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8989 Aug 2 high, now support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8964 Hourly support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8946 Aug 3 hourly base

*SUP 4: Stg0.8922/23 Aug 1, intraday lows

*COMMENTARY* Thursday saw a fall back towards the base of the recent range at

Stg0.8922 before the subsequent impressive rise swept us through Stg0.8970 and

also the former Stg0.8989 high. Now headed towards next resistance situated

between the upper 1% volatility band at Stg0.9052 and the swing target at

Stg0.9058. Meanwhile, support rises to Stg0.8989 and then the

Stg0.8964-Stg0.8946 area. 

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Falters After Initial Test To The 76.4% Fibo Level

*RES 4: $1284.8 1.618 swing of $1274.2-$1257.0

*RES 3: $1281.5 Jun 14 high

*RES 2: $1274.6 Jun 6 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1296.1-$1204.8

*RES 1: $1271.3 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1268.8 @0943GMT

*SUP 1: $1257.0 Aug 1 low

*SUP 2: $1252.1 Jul 27 low

*SUP 3: $1243.9 Jul 26 low

*SUP 4: $1239.5 Jul 21 low

*COMMENTARY* Has backed away after a challenge to the 76.4% Fibo retrace level

at $1274.6. Initial support from $1258.9 was breached on Wednesday but eyes are

currently on the lower and more important support from the Jul 27 low at

$1252.1. Loss here would spoil recent upside momentum and suggest that a deeper

correction is then required. In the meantime, resistance is still from $1271.3,

ahead of that key $1274.6 level, above which a move toward $1284.8 is possible.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]