MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.1860-70 Needed To End Correction

*RES 4: $1.2047/48 July 2012 low, 1.618 swing $1.1911-$1.1689

*RES 3: $1.2000 4 month bull channel top projection

*RES 2: $1.1911/21 Aug 2 high, equality rise from $1.1119

*RES 1: $1.1860/70 Series congestion lows Aug 3-4

*PRICE: $1.1804 @0915GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1775/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1749 Aug 11 low

*SUP 3: $1.1715/25 Hourly basing area Aug 8-Aug 9

*SUP 4: $1.1682/89 38.2% of $1.1312-$1.1911, Jul 21 high

*COMMENTARY* Having lost $1.1712 support last Wednesday, we began a correction

of gains from the early July low at $1.1312. A low of $1.1689 seen, just ahead

of the potential 1.1682-$1.1684 target area. This equating to a 38.2% pullback.

Meanwhile, the subsequent recovery has now stretched above near term resistance

between $1.1770-$1.1790. This now brings $1.1860-70 into the equation. As a

result, $1.1785-$1.1749 provides initial support.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3029-$1.3059 Still The Bar To Any Recovery Hopes

*RES 4: $1.3154 Underside broken 8 week support line

*RES 3: $1.3112 Aug 3 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.3059 Aug 7 high

*RES 1: $1.3029/32 Aug 9, Aug 11 highs

*PRICE: $1.2977 @0924GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2960 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2920/29 76.4% $1.2812-$1.3269, 50% $1.2589-$1.3269

*SUP 3: $1.2882 1.618 swing of $1.2939-$1.3032

*SUP 4: $1.2849 61.8% Fibo of $1.2589-$1.3269

*COMMENTARY* Continued pressure last week resulted in a fall to $1.2939 just

ahead of a stronger area between $1.2929-$1.2920. This a combination of two Fibo

retrace levels, the 50% of the rise from $1.2589 and perhaps slightly more

importantly, the 76.4% of the rise from $1.2812. Below here can allow an

overshoot around $1.2882 but any lower and $1.2849 comes into view. Meanwhile,

$1.3029-$1.3059 still provides resistance against any recovery process.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.84 The Immediate Problem For Continued Recovery

*RES 4: Y110.83 Aug 8 high

*RES 3: Y110.45/50 Congestion area Aug 8-Aug 9 

*RES 2: Y110.18 Aug 10 high

*RES 1: Y109.84 Aug 3 low, now resistance

*PRICE: Y109.70 @0932GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.00/10 1% volatility band, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.73/82 Aug 11, Jun 14 lows

*SUP 3: Y108.32 Equality fall from Y112.20 to Y114.50-Y110.62

*SUP 4: Y108.13 Apr 17 low

*COMMENTARY* Worked its way through congested support from between

Y109.63-Y109.21 last week and commenced an assault on the Jun 14 low at Y108.82,

a low of Y108.73 before seeing a bounce on the back of some oversold hourly

conditions, Will need to find a way back through Y109.84 however, before any

confidence in a recovery will appear and a challenge to last Thursday's Y110.18

high. Meanwhile near term support rises to Y109.00-10.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Bounces After Test Toward Y128.00-Y127.97 Support

*RES 4: Y130.87 Aug 7 high

*RES 3: Y130.60/65 Congestion area Aug 3-Aug 8

*RES 2: Y130.10 Aug 4 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y129.65/77 Intraday high, broken 4 month suppt line

*PRICE: Y129.44 @0945GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.85/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y128.40/45 Hourly congestion Aug 10-11

*SUP 3: Y127.97/00 38.2% Fibo of Y122.40-Y131.41, Jul 6 low

*SUP 4: Y127.34 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* After losing support from the 4 month rising support line last

week, the downside pulled up just shy of the key Y128.00-Y127.97 area. This the

next line of defence and protection against a further fall toward

Y127.34-Y126.91. In the interim, the move back above Y129.25 now sees the base

of that broken support line at Y126.77 as resistance against a continued

Y130.10-Y130.65 recovery.  Support in the meantime, rises to Y128-95-Y128.40.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Key Support Survived Last Week And Generated A Bounce

*RES 4: Stg0.9207 3 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: Stg0.9143 76.4% of Stg0.9402-Stg0.8305, Oct 10 high

*RES 2: Stg0.9137 1.618 swing of Stg0.9089-Stg 0.9008

*RES 1: Stg0.9119/23 Aug 11 high, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Stg0.9096 @0950GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.9065/75 Hourly support, Aug 10 high

*SUP 2: Stg0.9051 Aug 11 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.9022 5 week rising support line

*SUP 4: Stg0.9008/09 Aug 10, Aug 9 lows

*COMMENTARY* Has built on the support provided by the Stg0.9008-Stg0.9009 lows

last week, culminating in a move back above initial Stg0.9075 resistance and

also the swing target at Stg0.9091. A high of Stg0.9119 on Friday, basically in

line with a test to the upper 1% volatility band at Stg0.9123 but so far shy of

the next resistance from the Stg0.9137-Stg0.9143 area. As a result, support

rises to Stg0.9075-Stg0.9051.

GOLD TECHS: $1292.3 Now In Way Of Return To The Year's High

*RES 4: $1315.7 76.4% Fibo of $1375.4-$1122.6

*RES 3: $1299.2 1.618 swing of $1292.3-$1281.2

*RES 2: $1296.1 Jun 6 high

*RES 1: $1292.3 Aug 11 high

*PRICE: $1281.4 @0953GMT

*SUP 1: $1281.2 Aug 11 low

*SUP 2: $1274.2 Aug 1 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1265.3 Aug 8 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1260.1 Aug 9 low

*COMMENTARY* Rally has continued again last week, reaching and then breaking

above the swing target at $1288.1. A high of $1292.3 so far, with the near term

bull channel projection at $1295.9, just ahead of the year's previous $1296.1

high. As a result, nearest support rises to $1281.2, with the Aug 1 high at

$1274.4, currently of more importance below. A sustained break above $1296.1 and

the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1315.7 comes back into view.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]