MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: 1.1847 Break Remains The Marker For Fresh Upside

Interest

*RES 4: $1.1911/21 Aug 2 high, equality rise from $1.1119

*RES 3: $1.1895 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.1847 Aug 11 high

*RES 1: $1.1828 Aug 21 high

*PRICE: $1.1785 @0857GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1730/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1700 Hourly basing area Aug 15-17

*SUP 3: $1.1659/62 1% volatility band, Aug 17 low

*SUP 4: $1.1625 Equality fall from $1.1847 to $1.1911-$1.1689

*COMMENTARY* Has been consolidating within a $1.1847-$1.1662 range for three

weeks now, albeit with a slight upside bias since Aug 17. That said, $1.1828,

let alone the more important $1.1847 level, has so far capped attempts higher.

Will need to clear the latter before upside belief is confirmed for a retest to

$1.1911-21 and likely a higher $1.2047-$1.2065 rise. Support $1.1740-$1.1700,

loss will caution and put the base of the consolidation under pressure.

CABLE TECHS: Decline Heads Toward $1.2764-$1.2749 Support Zone

*RES 4: $1.2939 Aug 11 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2917/18 Aug 21, Aug 18 highs

*RES 2: $1.2885 Hourly high/low Aug 22

*RES 1: $1.2835/45 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2805 @0824GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2764/74 38.2% of $1.1947-$1.3269, Aug 23 low

*SUP 2: $1.2749/50 76.4% of $1.2589-$1.3269, 1% vol band

*SUP 3: $1.2702 Equality fall from $1.3032 to $1.3269-$1.2939

*SUP 4: $1.2622 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Now broken clearly below $1.2812 support, loss should allow a

deeper $1.2766-$1.2749 fall next. As a result, nearest resistance falls again to

$1.2835-$1.2885 but still need to recover $1.2918-$1.2939 before the near term

impetus for a better $1.2991-$1.3032 recovery will appear. Lose 1.2749 and the

equality fall target at $1.2702 is the brake to a $1.2622-$1.2608 decline.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.60-Y109.83 Break Needed To Revive Upside Interest

*RES 4: Y110.93/95 38.2% of Y114.50-Y108.73, Aug 16 high

*RES 3: Y110.38 Aug 17 high

*RES 2: Y109.83 Aug 23 high

*RES 1: Y109.55/60 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y109.35 @0834GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.85 Aug 23 low

*SUP 2: Y108.45/60 1% volatility band, Aug 18 low

*SUP 3: Y108.13 Apr 17 low

*SUP 4: Y107.36 1.618 swing Y108.73-Y110.95, 2% vol band

*COMMENTARY* A fall to a Y108.60 low last Friday but the subsequent recovery

formed a 'Doji' candle close on the daily chart. This survived another assault

on Monday, before seeing another bounce and the chance for a better recovery. So

far this has reached Y109.83, without as yet challenging tougher resistance

between Y110.38-Y110.95. Initial support Y108.85 but lose Y108.60-Y108.45 and

outlook changes, with the year's Y108.13 low then under threat.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y129.19-Y129.38 Currently In Way Of Any Better Recovery

*RES 4: Y130.30/40 1% volatility band, Aug 16 high

*RES 3: Y129.77 Recovery high Aug 16

*RES 2: Y129.38 Congestion area Aug 17 

*RES 1: Y129.19 Aug 22 high

*PRICE: Y128.92 @0838GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.33/40 Aug 22 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y127.84 Aug 21 low

*SUP 3: Y127.56/65 Aug 18 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y127.04 Equality fall from Y130.40 to Y131.41-Y128.05

*COMMENTARY* The lower 1% volatility band has provided a prop over the last few

days and indeed allowed a small recovery. This has reached Y126.19 so far but

still lacking the impetus for an assault on the more important Y129.38-Y129.77

area. Will need to see gains back through the latter, before the overall focus

can return to the topside. Meanwhile, Y128.33-40 provides initial support,

Y127.84 then protecting the volatility band again.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Heads Toward 4 Month Bull Channel Top Projection

*RES 4: Stg0.9325 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.9310 Equality rise from 0.8743 to 0.8313-0.8880

*RES 2: Stg0.9267 4 month bull channel top projection

*RES 1: Stg0.9236/40 Aug 23 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.9219 @0846GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.9195 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.9173/77 Hourly highs Aug 22-23, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.9144/54 Aug 16 high, Aug 22 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.9133 6 week rising support line

*COMMENTARY* Still moving higher and has risen through the next

Stg0.9194-Stg0.9215 target area. This takes us slightly above the upper 1%

volatility band, at Stg0.9233 today, with minor Stg0.9240 resistance, as the bar

to the top of the 4 month bull channel projection at Stg0.9267. Support rises

accordingly, Stg0.9195-Stg0.9173 now, ahead of Stg0.9154-Stg0.9144. Directly

above Stg0.9267 and not a lot until the equality rise target at Stg0.9310.

GOLD TECHS: Triangular Consolidation Above 7 Week Rising Support Line

*RES 4: $1315.7 76.4% Fibo of $1375.4-$1122.6

*RES 3: $1307.7 1.618 swing of $1292.3-$1267.4

*RES 2: $1300.9 Aug 18 high

*RES 1: $1296.1 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1285.7 @0855GMT

*SUP 1: $1280.6 Aug 18 low

*SUP 2: $1278.5 7 week rising support line

*SUP 3: $1274.2 Aug 1 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1267.4 Aug 15 low

*COMMENTARY* A triangular consolidation has ensued following last week's rally

to $1300.9. So far, this has found $1280.6 for support, leaving the 7 week

rising support line at $1278.5, untouched for the time being. For the rally to

continue, will need to regain $1296.1 initially, that $1300.9 thereafter, with

$1307.7-$1315.7 the next likely target area higher. Loss of $1278.5 will

caution, $1274.2 providing some back up but $1267.4 again important below.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]