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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Still Lacks A $1.1847 Break
*RES 4: $1.1911/21 Aug 2 high, equality rise from $1.1119
*RES 3: $1.1891 1% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.1847 Aug 11 high
*RES 1: $1.1828 Aug 21 high
*PRICE: $1.1785 @0807GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1730/40 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.1700 Hourly basing area Aug 15-17
*SUP 3: $1.1656/62 1% volatility band, Aug 17 low
*SUP 4: $1.1625 Equality fall from $1.1847 to $1.1911-$1.1689
*COMMENTARY* Has been consolidating within a $1.1847-$1.1662 range for three
weeks now, albeit with a slight upside bias since Aug 17. That said, $1.1828,
let alone the more important $1.1847 level, has so far capped attempts higher.
Will need to clear the latter before upside belief is confirmed for a retest to
$1.1911-21 and likely a higher $1.2047-$1.2065 rise. Support $1.1740-$1.1700,
loss will caution and put the base of the consolidation under pressure.
CABLE TECHS: Decline Holding Above Key Fibo Support Level At $1.2749
*RES 4: $1.2939 Aug 11 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $1.2917/18 Aug 21, Aug 18 highs
*RES 2: $1.2885 Hourly high/low Aug 22
*RES 1: $1.2838/45 Aug 24 high, hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2810 @0816GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2764/74 38.2% of $1.1947-$1.3269, Aug 23 low
*SUP 2: $1.2731/49 1% vol band, 76.4% of $1.2589-$1.3269
*SUP 3: $1.2702 Equality fall from $1.3032 to $1.3269-$1.2939
*SUP 4: $1.2602 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* The loss of $1.2812 support on Wednesday should allow a deeper
$1.2766-$1.2749 fall next. As a result, nearest resistance falls again to
$1.2838-$1.2885 but still need to recover $1.2918-$1.2939 before the near term
impetus for a better $1.2991-$1.3032 recovery will appear. Below 1.2749 and the
1% volatility band at $1.2731 and the equality fall target at $1.2702 are the
brakes to a $1.2622-$1.2602 decline.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.83 Break Needed To Revive Upside Interest
*RES 4: Y110.93/95 38.2% of Y114.50-Y108.73, Aug 16 high
*RES 3: Y110.70 1% volatility band
*RES 2: Y110.38 Aug 17 high
*RES 1: Y109.83 Aug 23 high
*PRICE: Y109.63 @0821GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.05 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y108.85 Aug 23 low
*SUP 3: Y108.50/60 1% volatility band, Aug 18 low
*SUP 4: Y108.13 Apr 17 low
*COMMENTARY* A fall to a Y108.60 low last Friday but the subsequent recovery
formed a 'Doji' candle close on the daily chart. This survived another assault
on Monday, before seeing another bounce and the chance for a better recovery. So
far this has reached Y109.83, without as yet challenging tougher resistance
between Y110.38-Y110.95. Initial support Y109.05-Y108.85 but lose Y108.50-60 and
outlook changes, with the year's Y108.13 low then under threat.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y129.73-Y129.77 Now The Key Near Term Resistance Area
*RES 4: Y130.35/40 1% volatility band, Aug 16 high
*RES 3: Y129.94 61.8% Fibo of Y131.41-Y127.56
*RES 2: Y129.73 76.4% Fibo of Y130.40-Y127.56
*RES 1: Y129.49/51 50% Fibo of Y131.41-Y127.56, intraday high
*PRICE: Y129.36 @0842GMT
*SUP 1: Y128.70/75 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y128.33 Aug 22 low
*SUP 3: Y127.76/84 1% volatility band, Aug 21 low
*SUP 4: Y127.56 Aug 18 low
*COMMENTARY* The lower 1% volatility band has provided a prop over the last few
days and indeed allowed a recovery. This has now reached Y126.51, so far just
short of the more important Y129.73-Y129.77 area. Will need to see gains back
through here, before the overall focus can return to the topside. Meanwhile,
Y128.75-Y128.33 provides support and also protects that lower volatility band
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Slows And Now Back Beneath 1% Volatility Band
*RES 4: Stg0.9338 2% volatility band
*RES 3: Stg0.9310 Equality rise from 0.8743 to 0.8313-0.8880
*RES 2: Stg0.9275 4 month bull channel top projection
*RES 1: Stg0.9237/46 Aug 23 high, 1% volatility band
*PRICE: Stg0.9208 @0905GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.9190/95 Aug 24 low, hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.9173/77 Hourly highs Aug 22-23, now support
*SUP 3: Stg0.9144/54 Aug 16 high, Aug 22 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.9119 Aug 11 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* The rally has slowed over the last couple of days, a high of
Stg0.9237 on Wednesday, before once again slipping back below the upper 1%
volatility band, at Stg0.9246 by time today. That said, initial support from
above Stg0.9190 remains intact and while this holds it protects against a deeper
Stg0.9177-Stg0.9144 fall. The 6 week rising support line is at Stg0.9147. Above
Stg0.9246 and look to Stg0.9275-Stg0.9310 next.
GOLD TECHS: Triangular Consolidation Above 7 Week Rising Support Line
*RES 4: $1315.7 76.4% Fibo of $1375.4-$1122.6
*RES 3: $1307.7 1.618 swing of $1292.3-$1267.4
*RES 2: $1300.9 Aug 18 high
*RES 1: $1296.1 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1287.6 @0910GMT
*SUP 1: $1280.6 Aug 18 low, 7 week rising support line
*SUP 2: $1274.2 Aug 1 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1267.4 Aug 15 low
*SUP 4: $1260.1 Aug 9 low
*COMMENTARY* A triangular consolidation has ensued following last week's rally
to $1300.9. So far, this has found $1280.6 for support, also the level of the 7
week rising support line by time today. For the rally to continue, will need to
regain $1296.1 initially, that $1300.9 thereafter, with $1307.7-$1315.7 the next
likely target area higher. Loss of $1280.6 will caution, $1274.2 providing some
back up but $1267.4 again important below.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: