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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Reaches Into $1.2065-$1.2080 Resistance Zone
*RES 4: $1.2167 50% Fibo of $1.3994-$1.0340
*RES 3: $1.2147 4 month rising resistance line
*RES 2: $1.2080 2% volatility band
*RES 1: $1.2065/70 1.618 swing $1.1911-$1.1662, intraday high
*PRICE: $1.2062 @0912GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1980/85 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.1956 Hourly base Aug 28
*SUP 3: $1.1917 Aug 28 low
*SUP 4: $1.1847 Aug 11 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* As mentioned yesterday, the break of the previous $1.1911-$1.1662
range suggested scope for a rally into $1.2047-$1.2065 next. The latter slightly
exceeded today but has further resistance from the upper 2% volatility band, at
$1.2080 today. A sustained break here and likely that the next target area will
be between $1.2147-$1.2167. The latter a longer term Fibo retrace level. Support
on the rise, $1.1985-$ 1.1956 but $1.1917 of more importance.
     
CABLE TECHS: Correction Underway Of Losses From Month's $1.3269 high
*RES 4: $1.3132 2% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.3080 61.8% Fibo of $1.3269-$1.2774
*RES 2: $1.3022 50% of $1.3269-$1.2774, Aug 14 high
*RES 1: $1.2994 1% volatility band
*PRICE: $1.2965 @0924GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2920 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2900 Initial rally high Aug 28, now support
*SUP 3: $1.2874 Aug 28 low
*SUP 4: $1.2820/25 Hourly congestion Aug 22-24
*COMMENTARY* Found a base from just above dual Fibo support between
$1.2764-$1.2749. The subsequent bounce has now broken through the previously
troublesome $1.2917-$1.2939 area and also back above the base of the broken 5
month bull channel. This now confirms a correction underway of losses sustained
since the month's $1.3269 high. Look to $1.2994-$1.3022 next as we wend our way
higher. Nearest support $1.2920-$1.2900 but $1.2874 more important below.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Fresh Move Down Targets Year's Previous Low
*RES 4: Y109.83/85 Aug 23, Aug 25 highs
*RES 3: Y109.41 Aug 28 high
*RES 2: Y109.05/15 Hourly congestion Aug 28
*RES 1: Y108.70/80 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y108.51 @0938GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.13 Apr 17 low, 1% volatility band
*SUP 2: Y107.83 1.618 swing of Y108.60-Y109.85
*SUP 3: Y107.36 1.618 swing of Y108.73-Y110.95
*SUP 4: Y107.04 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* The loss of Y108.60 has removed the underlying support from the
'Doji' candle close on Aug 18. Next support is likely to come from the year's
previous Y108.13 low which coincidentally happens to be the area of the lower 1%
volatility band today. Any lower and two swing targets at Y107.83 and then
Y107.36 protect the lower 2% volatility band at Y107.04, ahead of the longer
term 61.8% Fibo level at Y106.51. Nearest resistance Y108.70-Y109.15.
     
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y129.73-Y129.77 Break Returns Overall Focus To The Topside
*RES 4: Y131.92 2% volatility band
*RES 3: Y131.71 Underside prev broken 5 month support line
*RES 2: Y131.41 Aug 2 high
*RES 1: Y130.93/97 1% volatility band, Aug 28 high
*PRICE: Y130.83 @0945GMT
*SUP 1: Y130.25/30 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y129.92/98 Hourly basing area Aug 28
*SUP 3: Y129.66 Aug 28 low
*SUP 4: Y129.19 Aug 22 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* The lower 1% volatility band has provided a prop over the last few
days and indeed allowed a recovery, which has accelerated after breaking above
the Y129.73-Y129.77 area. This has returned the overall focus back to the
topside, with resistance from around the upper 1% volatility band, now the brake
to a Y131.41 return. Meanwhile, Y130.25-30 provides an initial support area,
with Y129.98-Y129.66 below.
     
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Moves Toward The Equality Rise Target At Stg0.9310
*RES 4: Stg0.9402 Oct 6 high
*RES 3: Stg0.9376 2% volatility band
*RES 2: Stg0.9368 7 week bull channel top projection
*RES 1: Stg0.9310 Equality rise from 0.8743 to 0.8313-0.8880
*PRICE: Stg0.9284 @0958GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.9260/70 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.9230/35 Aug 28 low, Aug 24 high
*SUP 3: Stg0.9215 Hourly congestion Aug 24-25
*SUP 4: Stg0.9190 Aug 24 low
*COMMENTARY* Now trying to sustain a break above both the upper 1% volatility
band at Stg0.9284 and the 4 month bull channel top at Stg0.9290. Next target on
the upside becomes the equality rise target at Stg0.9310. In the interim, look
to Stg0.9260-70 for initial support, the Stg0.9230-35 area below but only a loss
of Stg0.9215-Stg0.9190 will caution. Directly above Stg0.9310 and not much
showing until Stg0.9368-Stg0.9376.
     
GOLD TECHS: Fresh Rally Eyes A Further $1337.6-$1352.5 Rise
*RES 4: $1352.5 1.618 swing of $1296.1-$1204.8
*RES 3: $1348.8 9 month bull channel top projection
*RES 2: $1337.6 Nov 9 high
*RES 1: $1326.2 Intraday high
*PRICE: $1320.6 @1016GMT
*SUP 1: $1314.0 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1305.9 Hourly base Aug 28
*SUP 3: $1300.9 Aug 18 high, now support
*SUP 4: $1295.1 Aug 25 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* A sharp spike lower last Friday found support from above the Aug 1
high at $1274.2. This thereby keeping near term momentum with the topside. The
subsequent break back above $1294.4 suggested another attempt on the Aug 18 high
at $1300.9 would follow. Through here now and also the 76.4% Fibo retrace level
at $1315.7. Now looking towards $1337.6-$1352.5 as the next target area. Nearest
supports now $1314.0-$1305.9.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]