MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Swing Target At $1.1715 Protects $1.1679-$1.1655 Fall

*RES 4: $1.1861 Sep 20 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1837 Sep 14 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.1796 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.1770/80 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1739 @0845GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1715 1.618 swing of $1.1837-$1.2034

*SUP 2: $1.1679 23.6% Fibo of $1.0340-$1.2093

*SUP 3: $1.1655/62 2% volatility band, Aug 17 low

*SUP 4: $1.1620 1.618x $1.2093-$1.1837 from $1.2034

*COMMENTARY* The loss of the consolidation base and key support from $1.1823,

has been the catalyst for the latest fall, which today has also lost support

from the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.1764. This now leaves the swing target

at $1.1715 as the next potential downside target, ahead of the next important

area between $1.1679-$1.1655. As a result, nearest resistance is currently

$1.1770-80, with the day's $1.1796 high above.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3363-$1.3321 Next Targeted Area As Correction Continues

*RES 4: $1.3545/50 Congestion area Sep 22-25

*RES 3: $1.3515 Sep 26 high

*RES 2: $1.3464 Hourly recovery high Sep 26

*RES 1: $1.3425/35 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3391 @0904GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3354/63 1% vol band, 1.618 swing $1.3452-$1.3596

*SUP 2: $1.3321 38.2% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.3659

*SUP 3: $1.3269/72 Aug 3 high, 76.4% of $1.3153-$1.3659

*SUP 4: $1.3216/20 50% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.3659, 2% vol band

*COMMENTARY*  The key 1.3450 support level gave way earlier in the week and

continued the correction of recent gains from the Sep 14 low at $1.3153. Having

subsequently lost $1.3406 support, the next targeted area is now from between

the swing target at $1.3363 and the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at $1.3321. These

currently protect against a deeper $1.3272-$1.3269 fall. Meanwhile, resistance

$1.3425-$1.3464, back above the latter needed for respite.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Resumes After Hold Above Key Y111.45 Support

*RES 4: Y114.11 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Y113.50/58 1.618 swing Y112.72-Y111.47, Jul 14 high

*RES 2: Y113.27 Equality rise from Y109.55 to Y107.32-Y111.04

*RES 1: Y113.00 50% Fibo of Y118.67-Y107.32, 1% vol band

*PRICE: Y112.91 @0919GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.45/55 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y112.27 Intraday low 

*SUP 3: Y112.00 Hourly base Sep 26

*SUP 4: Y111.80 Initial rally high Sep 25, now support

*COMMENTARY* The key Y111.45 support held over the first couple of days this

week and has prefaced another impressive rise. This is now challenging the

year's Y112.83 falling resistance line and the 50% Fibo retrace level at

Y113.00. As a result, support has also risen, Y112.55-Y112.27 the initial area

now and protection against a deeper correction of those gains from Y111.47.

Directly above Y113.00 and still have Y113.27-Y113.58 to negotiate next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Correcting Lower After 61.8% Fibo Retrace Caps Rise

*RES 4: Y133.85 Hourly congestion area Sep 22-25

*RES 3: Y133.50/53 Sep 22 low, hourly base Sep 22

*RES 2: Y133.04 Hourly base Sep 25, now resistance

*RES 1: Y132.75/80 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y132.57 @0925GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.72/75 1% volatility band, Sep 26 low

*SUP 2: Y131.51 76.4% Fibo of Y130.62-Y134.41

*SUP 3: Y131.30 61.8% Fibo of Y129.37-Y134.41

*SUP 4: Y130.56/62 76.4% of Y129.37-Y134.41, Sep 14 low

*COMMENTARY* The rally failed at Y134.41 last week, in line with a test to the

61.8% Fibo retrace of the long term  Y149.80-Y109.51 fall. In the interim, we

have seen a fall below Y133.26, beneath which opened the prospect of a deeper

Y131.72-Y131.51 decline, as we correct the most recent gains from the Sep 14 low

at Y130.62. Meanwhile, nearest resistance falls to Y132.75-Y133.04. Back above

the latter currently needed for respite.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8743 Support Now Protects Against A Stg0.8692 Drop

*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Sep 22 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8845/55 Hourly lows/high Sep 22

*RES 2: Stg0.8824 Hourly high Sep 25

*RES 1: Stg0.8800/05 Intraday high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8766 @0930GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8743/54 Jul 14, Sep 26 lows

*SUP 2: Stg0.8729 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: Stg0.8692 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8313-Stg0.9306

*SUP 4: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low, 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Unable to break back above the key Stg0.8900-Stg0.8908 resistance

last week. As a result, pressure has again returned to the downside and

Stg0.8774 support has given way. This seen as the protection to the still

important Stg0.8743 level and the added potential for a further Stg0.8692 fall.

In the meantime, Stg0.8800-Stg0.8805 provides near term resistance, back above

here needed before any chance of respite.

GOLD TECHS: Correction Resumes After Failure To Reclaim $1314.4 

*RES 4: $1322.0 Broken 2 month support line

*RES 3: $1313.8 Sep 26 high

*RES 2: $1307.5 Hourly recovery high Sep 26

*RES 1: $1296.4 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1289.3 @0940GMT

*SUP 1: $1281.2 50% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7

*SUP 2: $1274.7 Aug 25 low

*SUP 3: $1263.2 61.8% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7

*SUP 4: $1240.9 61.8% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7

*COMMENTARY* After breaking below the 2 month rising support line last week, the

fall found some support from $1288.1, as we correct gains from the Jul 10 low at

$1204.8. Unable in the meantime to negotiate resistance from $1314.4 and as a

result, fresh downside pressure below $1288.1 has resumed. Now looking to

$1281.2-$1274.7 for next clues and as protection against a further $1263.2 fall.

Meanwhile resistance falls to $1296.4-$1307.5.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]