MNI BRIEF: BOJ Should Exit YCC, Raise Policy Rate - IMF Article IV

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MNI: PBOC Injects Net CNY53 Bln Via OMO Fri; Rates Unchanged

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 623; OIL RIGS 499; GAS RIGS 121

W/C February 12, 2024

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MNI BRIEF: Stabilizing Prices Helps BOC Turn Neutral-Freeland

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MNI BRIEF: BOJ Should Exit YCC, Raise Policy Rate - IMF Article IV

MNI BRIEF: Expect Easy Conditions After Neg Rates - BOJ's Ueda

MNI: PBOC Injects Net CNY53 Bln Via OMO Fri; Rates Unchanged

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 623; OIL RIGS 499; GAS RIGS 121

W/C February 12, 2024

MNI: US BLS: DEC CPI REVISED DOWN TO +0.233% VS +0.303% PREV

MNI BRIEF: Stabilizing Prices Helps BOC Turn Neutral-Freeland

MNI BRIEF: Canada Needs CAD1 Trln To Fix Housing Squeeze- CMHC

MNI BRIEF: Canada Shows No Progress Closing Housing Shortfall

MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis 

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pullback Returns Toward Base Of Recent Consolidation
*RES 4: $1.1880 Oct 12 high
*RES 3: $1.1858 Oct 19-Oct 20 highs
*RES 2: $1.1826/27 Hourly low Oct 19, hourly high Oct 20
*RES 1: $1.1790/00 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1746 @0846GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1730 Oct 18 low
*SUP 2: $1.1705 Congestion area Oct 5-6
*SUP 3: $1.1685 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.1649 Oct 6 low
*COMMENTARY* Still consolidating following the drop to and bounce from the lower
1% volatility band at $1.1649 on Oct 9. The recovery has since threatened the
head and shoulders neckline, at $1.1875 today. This and the Oct 12 high at
$1.1880, now bar the way higher. The subsequent fall sees support from
$1.1730-$1.1705 currently keeping the pressure off a return to that 1% band and
the Oct 6 low at $1.1649. Meanwhile, $1.1790-$1.1827 forms nearest resistance.
CABLE TECHS: Bounces After Test Towards Lower 1% Volatility Band
*RES 4: $1.3338/43 Oct 13 high, 50% Fibo of $1.3659-$1.3027
*RES 3: $1.3287 Oct 17 high
*RES 2: $1.3240/45 Congestion area Oct 16-17
*RES 1: $1.3229 Oct 19 high
*PRICE: $1.3175 @0858GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3140 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3120 Hourly base Oct 20
*SUP 3: $1.3085/88 1% volatility band, Oct 20 low
*SUP 4: $1.3027/30 Oct 6 low, Jun 30 high
*COMMENTARY* Friday's dip to $1.3088 took us slightly below the 76.4% Fibo
retrace level at $1.3100 but was halted just above the lower 1% volatility band,
at $1.3085 by time today. This protects the downside from another tilt at the
$1.3030-$1.3027 area, which in turn protects the key $1.2983-$1.2979 region. The
subsequent bounce now has $1.3229 resistance ahead of the congested $1.3240-45
area. This then barring the way to a return to last Tuesday's $1.3287 high.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Looks Toward Y114.33-Y114.66 Next
*RES 4: Y114.95 2% volatility band
*RES 3: Y114.66 1.618 swing of Y113.51-Y111.65
*RES 2: Y114.33 61.8% Fibo of Y118.67-Y107.32
*RES 1: Y114.10 Oct 20 high
*PRICE: Y113.85 @0909GMT
*SUP 1: Y113.50/60 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y113.15 Oct 19 high, now support
*SUP 3: Y112.88 Hourly basing area Oct 18
*SUP 4: Y112.55/60 Hourly congestion area Oct 19
*COMMENTARY* Found the strength to push through the upper 1% volatility band on
Friday, at Y113.82 by time today but so far remains without a test to the next
upside obstacle, the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Y114.33. In the meantime, the
Y113.60-Y113.50 area provides immediate support and the protection against a
deeper Y113.15 pullback, as we correct recent gains from Thursday's Y112.29 low.
Directly through Y114.33 and look to the swing target at Y114.66 next.
EURO-YEN TECHS: 1% Volatility Band The Bar To A Fresh Y134.41 Challenge
*RES 4: Y135.67 2% volatility band
*RES 3: Y134.64 1.618 swing of Y133.50-Y131.66
*RES 2: Y134.41 Sep 22 high, 61.8% Fibo of Y149.80-Y109.51
*RES 1: Y134.13 Oct 20 high
*PRICE: Y133.73 @0921GMT
*SUP 1: Y133.44/50 Oct 20 low, hourly support
*SUP 2: Y133.10 Hourly basing area Oct 19
*SUP 3: Y132.80/85 Further hourly lows Oct 19
*SUP 4: Y132.47 Oct 19 low
*COMMENTARY* The Y131.75-Y131.66 area managed to hold recent setbacks, following
last month's assault on the long term 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Y134.41. The
subsequent recovery last week has been impressive, a high of Y134.13 so far, as
we again return towards that Y134.41 high, the upper 1% volatility band at the
earlier Y134.34 level today. Again some near term overbought conditions can see
a Y133.50-Y133.10 pullback but only below Y132.80 will spoil upside momentum.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8897 Protects Against A Stg0.8856-Stg0.0.8840 Fall
*RES 4: Stg0.9019/22 1% vol band, Oct 20 high
*RES 3: Stg0.8994 Hourly high Oct 20
*RES 2: Stg0.8980 Hourly recovery high Oct 20
*RES 1: Stg0.8940/50 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8915 @0933GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8897 Oct 18 low
*SUP 2: Stg0.8855/56 61.8% Stg0.8746-Stg0.9032, Oct 16 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8840 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Stg0.8813 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8746-Stg0.9032
*COMMENTARY* Had been building for another assault on the key
Stg0.9026-Stg0.9032 area but has been thwarted by the earlier upper 1%
volatility band at Stg0.9022, now at Stg0.9019 by time today. The subsequent
fall below the Oct 18 high at Stg0.8947 has triggered a correction, the Oct 18
low at Stg0.8897 now the protection against a further Stg0.8856-Stg0.8840 fall.
Meanwhile, back above Stg0.8950 needed for near term respite.
     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Heading Towards $1.2641-$1.2663 Resistance
*RES 4: $1.2723 38.2% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061
*RES 3: $1.2703 1.618 swing of $1.2600-$1.2433
*RES 2: $1.2663 Aug 31 high
*RES 1: $1.2641 Intraday high, 1% volatility band
*PRICE: $1.2631 @0946GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2591 Oct 17 high, now support
*SUP 2: $1.2569 Hourly low Oct 20
*SUP 3: $1.2520 Initial recovery high Oct 20, now support
*SUP 4: $1.2495 Congestion area Oct 18, Oct 20
*COMMENTARY* The move through $1.2600-$1.2610 resistance has been followed by a
test to the upper 1% volatility band today. This just shy of the Aug 31 high at
$1.2663. Through the latter needed before the added potential for a run at
$1.2703, the swing target of the month's $1.2600-$1.2433 fall. In the meantime,
support rises to $1.2591 and this currently protects against a deeper correction
of the gains seen from last Thursday's $1.2451 low.
GOLD TECHS: Fresh Fall Sees $1271.4 As Protecting The Oct 9 Low
*RES 4: $1299.0 Congestion area Oct 13-Oct 16
*RES 3: $1291.5 Oct 18 high
*RES 2: $1284.8 Hourly high Oct 20
*RES 1: $1280.7 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1275.3 @0956GMT
*SUP 1: $1271.4 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1260.7 Oct 9 low
*SUP 3: $1251.7 Aug 8 low
*SUP 4: $1245.9 2017 bull channel base
*COMMENTARY* Unable to break through $1291.5 resistance last week and as a
result downside pressure has seen $1276.2 support come under assault today.
Below here and the $1271.4 level represents next support and the protection
against a return to the Oct 9 low at $1260.7. In the interim, look to $1280.7
for initial resistance, $1284.8 above is then the bar to a fresh attempt on that
previously mentioned $1291.5 level.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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