MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Downside Back Under Pressure After $1.1624-$1.1616 Cap

*RES 4: $1.1725/30 Oct 23, Oct 18 lows, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1690 Nov 3 high

*RES 2: $1.1660 Hourly congestion Nov 2-Nov 3

*RES 1: $1.1616/24 Nov 6, Nov 3 highs

*PRICE: $1.1573 @0948GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1555 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1529 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.1502/06 swing of $1.1574-$1.1690 & $1.1649-$1.1880

*SUP 4: $1.1487 9 week bull channel base projection

*COMMENTARY* Unable to move any higher than $1.1688-$1.1690 last week. While

below the slightly higher $1.1725-30 area, this still suggests that the recovery

from last week's $1.1574 low is just a 4th wave correction. The latter back

under pressure today, below sees $1.1555-$1.1529 next. Any lower and the

downside will seek out a couple of swing targets around $1.1506-$1.1502 next.

Resistance $1.1616-$1.1624 and then more importantly $1.1660.

CABLE TECHS: Correction Reaches The 50% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: $1.3255 76.4% Fibo of $1.3322-$1.3039

*RES 3: $1.3240 Nov 1 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.3214 61.8% Fibo of $1.3322-$1.3039

*RES 1: $1.3180 50% Fibo of $1.3322-$1.3039

*PRICE: $1.3150 @0956GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3115/25 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3070 Congestion area Nov 3-Nov 6

*SUP 4: $1.2983 76.4% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.3659

*COMMENTARY* Recovery continued on Monday, the rally approaching the 50% Fibo

retrace level at $1.3180, before encountering some near term overbought

conditions. In this respect, the $1.3125-$1.3115 region is anticipated to

provide initial support and protection against a slip back towards $1.3070. A

hold of the latter is important to any further recovery plans. Above $1.3180 and

the correction can continue, $1.3214 the next target.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Breaks Y114.45-Y114.50 Resistance But Beats A Hasty Retreat

*RES 4: Y115.37 1.618 swing of Y114.45-Y112.96

*RES 3: Y115.00 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y114.74 Nov 6 high

*RES 1: Y114.45/50 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y114.29 @1002GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y113.54/63 Nov 2, Nov 3 lows

*SUP 3: Y113.34 Oct 26 low

*SUP 4: Y112.96 Oct 31 low

*COMMENTARY* Made the most of support found from Y112.96. last Tuesday. The

subsequent recovery spent the latter part of the week challenging the

Y114.45-Y114.50 area. Saw a break here yesterday but this has been less than

successful, retreating quickly from Y114.74. Meanwhile, Y113.85 now provides

initial support, Y113.63-Y113.34 below. Only loss of the latter will concern

however. Above Y114.74 and the 1% volatility band bars way to Y115.37-Y115.51.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y132.00-Y131.85 Hold Needed To Protect Base Of Consolidation 

*RES 4: Y133.78 76.4% Fibo of Y134.50-Y131.46

*RES 3: Y133.34 61.8% Fibo of Y134.50-Y131.46

*RES 2: Y133.15 Nov 2 high

*RES 1: Y132.75/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y132.12 @1012GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.00 Nov 6 low

*SUP 2: Y131.85/93 Hourly support, Initial high Oct 30

*SUP 3: Y131.25/46 1% vol band, Oct 31 low

*SUP 4: Y131.03 50% Fibo of Y127.56-Y134.50

*COMMENTARY* Spent the better part of last week correcting some of the recent

Y134.50-Y131.46 losses. The recent rise to Y133.15, just shy of the next Fibo

retrace level at Y133.34. In the meantime, we have seen another pullback,

support from Y132.00-Y131.85 initially now and the latter should ideally hold

now, or the risk once again reverts to the downside and threatens the base of

the recent consolidation between 131.46-Y131.25. Resistance Y132.75-Y132.85.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8784-Stg0.8782 Now Provides Key Near Term Support 

*RES 4: Stg0.8939 Nov 2 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8912 Hourly recovery high Nov 

*RES 2: Stg0.8873/85 Nov 3 low, Hourly high Nov 6 

*RES 1: Stg0.8845/50 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8796 @1030GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8782/84 76.4% of Stg0.8733-Stg0.8939, Nov 1 high

*SUP 2: Stg0.8747 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: Stg0.8733 Nov 1 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8692 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8313-Stg0.9306

*COMMENTARY* A low of Stg0.8733 last Wednesday, just slightly below the 1.618

projection target at Stg0.8737. The subsequent rally has helped to reduce some

heavily oversold conditions. A high of Stg0.8939, before retreating once again.

The loss of Stg0.8813 support today, now requires Stg0.8782-Stg0.8784 to hold,

if near term upside bias is to be retained and avoid a Stg0.8747-Stg0.8733 fall.

Nearest resistance now Stg0.8845-50 and then Stg0.8873-Stg0.8885.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Correction Holding Above The Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2862/65 Oct 30 high, congestion lows Nov 1

*RES 3: $1.2836 Nov 3 high

*RES 2: $1.2799/08 Nov 2, Oct 27 lows

*RES 1: $1.2782/83 Recovery high Nov 3, Nov 6 high

*PRICE: $1.2756 @1036GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2701/15 Nov 6, Nov 3 lows

*SUP 2: $1.2684 1% vol band, 50% Fibo of $1.2451-$1.2917

*SUP 3: $1.2629/34 61.8% of $1.2451-$1.2917, Oct 25 low

*SUP 4: $1.2600 Oct 6 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Late last month saw the upside move toward the 50% Fibo retrace

level at $1.2927. A high of $1.2917 twice, before succumbing to some overbought

conditions. Has since broken below $1.2799-$1.2781 support which opens up

corrective potential of recent gains from $1.2451. Lows of $1.2715-$1.2701 so

far, ahead of next $1.2684 support area, which includes the lower 1% volatility

band. Resistance $1.2782-83 and then the $1.2799-$1.2808 previous lows.

GOLD TECHS: Above $1286.1 Required To Improve Upside Prospects

*RES 4: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 3: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 2: $1286.1 Oct 23 high

*RES 1: $1283.0 Nov 6 high

*PRICE: $1276.5 @1043GMT

*SUP 1: $1270.9 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*SUP 3: $1260.7 Oct 6 lo

*SUP 4: $1251.7 Aug 8 low, 2017 bull channel base

*COMMENTARY* After losing the $1271.4 support level, last week saw a low of

$1263.8, just ahead of the next key level, the Oct 9 low at $1260.7. As a

result, became oversold on a near term basis and the move back above $1280.3 has

done much to alleviate this, ahead of the $1286.1 resistance level. Need back

above here to further improve upside potential. Meanwhile, a loss of $1270.9

support would concern and may well see the downside come under pressure again. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]