MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1616-$1.1624 Still The Near Term Bar To Recovery

*RES 4: $1.1725/30 Oct 23, Oct 18 lows, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1690 Nov 3 high

*RES 2: $1.1660 Hourly congestion Nov 2-Nov 3

*RES 1: $1.1616/24 Nov 6, Nov 3 highs

*PRICE: $1.1592 @0837GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1554 Nov 7 low

*SUP 2: $1.1509 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.1502/06 swing of $1.1574-$1.1690 & $1.1649-$1.1880

*SUP 4: $1.1472 9 week bull channel base projection

*COMMENTARY* Found support from around the $1.1555 level on Tuesday, before

being rescued by some near term oversold conditions. Still looking towards

$1.1616-$1.1624 for initial resistance to this recovery, above and the slightly

higher $1.1638-$1.1660 area then becomes the focus and key as to whether this

rally has any legs or not. Meanwhile, that $1.1554-55 area protects the downside

from an assault on the $1.1509-$1.1502 area next.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3155-$1.3180 Provide Resistance To Any Recovery

*RES 4: $1.3240 Nov 1 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.3214 61.8% Fibo of $1.3322-$1.3039

*RES 2: $1.3180 50% Fibo of $1.3322-$1.3039

*RES 1: $1.3155 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3133 @0845GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3086 Nov 8 low

*SUP 2: $1.3070 Congestion area Nov 3-Nov 6

*SUP 3: $1.3039 Nov 3 low

*SUP 4: $1.2983 76.4% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.3659

*COMMENTARY* The upside has now encountered resistance from just below the 50%

Fibo retrace level at $1.3180, on a couple of occasions this week. Following

this, the $1.3115-$1.3109 region has since failed to provide initial support,

thus suggesting scope for a slip back towards $1.3070. A hold of the latter is

important to any further recovery plans. Resistance falls to $1.3155 but above

that elusive 1.3180 is needed before any correction can continue.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y113.34 Provides Support Within The Recent Range

*RES 4: Y114.91 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y114.74 Nov 6 high

*RES 2: Y114.34 Nov 7 high

*RES 1: Y114.00/10 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y113.52 @0849GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.34 Oct 26 low

*SUP 2: Y112.96 Oct 31 low

*SUP 3: Y112.63 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y112.38 76.4% Fibo of Y111.65-Y114.74

*COMMENTARY* Continues to fall after the less than successful break above

Y114.45-50 on Monday. At the moment, the decline is still within the confines of

the recent range, with Y113.34 anticipated to provide some near term support,

ahead of the key Y112.96 level. In the meantime, nearest resistance falls to

Y114.00-Y114.10 but will need to climb back above Y114.34, before the recent

bear bias will be reduced.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.03-Y130.42 Potential If Y131.40 Support Gives Way

*RES 4: Y133.15 Nov 2 high

*RES 3: Y132.85 Hourly congestion Nov 3

*RES 2: Y132.40/42 Nov 3 low, Nov 7 high

*RES 1: Y132.27 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y131.56 @0855GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.40/46 Nov 8, Oct 31 lows

*SUP 2: Y131.03 50% Fibo of Y127.56-Y134.50

*SUP 3: Y130.86/89 swing Y131.40-Y132.27, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y130.42 1.618 swing of Y131.46-Y133.15

*COMMENTARY* The pivotal Y131.85 level failed to halt the fall on Wednesday, the

subsequent drop heading straight towards and slightly below the Oct 31 low at

Y131.46. A sustained loss here will see the potential for a further

Y131.03-Y130.42 fall. In the interim, resistance also moves slightly, the day's

Y132.27 high now barring the way to the still important Y132.40-42. Above here

needed before things can improve again.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Holds Above Key Stg0.8782-Stg0.8784 Support On Tuesday

*RES 4: Stg0.8939 Nov 2 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8912 Hourly recovery high Nov 3

*RES 2: Stg0.8885 Hourly recovery high Nov 6 

*RES 1: Stg0.8863/73 Nov 8 high, Nov 3 low

*PRICE: Stg0.8832 @0858GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8791 Nov 7 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8782/84 76.4% of Stg0.8733-Stg0.8939, Nov 1 high

*SUP 3: Stg0.8740 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8733 Nov 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from Stg0.8791 on Tuesday, thereby saving the

downside from a test to the pivotal Stg0.8784-Stg0.8782 area. That said, still

has some work to do, another move above back Stg0.8850 would be helpful and

allow for some greater correction of the recent fall from the month's earlier

Stg0.8939 high. This would see Stg0.8873-Stg0.8912 come back into play. Loss of

Stg0.8791-Stg0.8782 and then the 1% vol band protects Stg0.8733-Stg0.8692.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2715-$1.2701 Back Under Pressure Again

*RES 4: $1.2866 76.4% Fibo of $1.2917-$1.2701

*RES 3: $1.2834/36 61.8% of $1.2917-$1.2701, Nov 3 high

*RES 2: $1.2820 Nov 7 high

*RES 1: $1.2780/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2723 @0902GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2712/15 Intraday, Nov 3 lows

*SUP 2: $1.2701 Nov 6 low

*SUP 3: $1.2664/84 1% vol band, 50% Fibo of $1.2451-$1.2917

*SUP 4: $1.2629/34 61.8% of $1.2451-$1.2917, Oct 25 low

*COMMENTARY* Still retreating after Tuesday's surge to $1.2820, failed just shy

of the more interesting $1.2834-$1.2836 area. Now with the loss of

$1.2745-$1.2730 support looking to $1.2715, if this pullback is just to be

corrective and prevent $1.2701-$1.2684 from coming under challenge again. In the

interim, resistance from $1.2780-$1.2790 stands in the way of any near term

comeback, then that $1.2820-$1.2836 above.

GOLD TECHS: Sustained $1286.1 Break Will Enhance Recovery Prospects

*RES 4: $1306.1 Oct 16 high

*RES 3: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 2: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 1: $1289.9 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1283.6 @0905GMT

*SUP 1: $1276.0 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1271.8 Nov 7 low

*SUP 3: $1265.5 Nov 3 low

*SUP 4: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*COMMENTARY* Rally is threatening to break free of $1286.1 resistance.

Asuccessful breach should allow a higher $1291.5-$1296.1 rise, as we continue to

correct the $1306.1-$1263.8 losses sustained since the previous recovery peaked

on Oct 16. As a result, support also on the rise, initially from $1276.0, this

currently protecting a sequence of $1271.8-$1265.5 lows, seen since the $1263.8

base at the end of last month.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]