MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Falters On Approach To $1.1690

*RES 4: $1.1754 2 month falling resistance line

*RES 3: $1.1748 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.1725/30 Oct 23, Oct 18 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1690 Nov 3 high

*PRICE: $1.1643 @1035GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1623 Nov 10 low

*SUP 2: $1.1600 Hourly congestion area Nov 8-9

*SUP 3: $1.1579 Nov 8 low

*SUP 4: $1.1554 Nov 7 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from around the $1.1555 level last Tuesday, before

being rescued by some near term oversold conditions. Thursday's move back above

the previously troublesome $1.1660 area is a positive and eyes are now on the

the slightly higher $1.1690 high from Nov 3. Clearly above the latter would give

the recovery a further boost. Meanwhile, Friday's $1.1623 low is initia support,

with $1.1600-$1.1579 then protecting that $1.1554-55 area again.

CABLE TECHS: Decline Sees Move Back Toward Base Of Recent Range

*RES 4: $1.3230/40 Nov 10 high, Nov 1 low

*RES 3: $1.3189 Initial low Nov 10, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.3162 Hourly base Nov 10, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.3105/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3074 @1045GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3027/39 Oct 6, Nov 3 lows

*SUP 2: $1.3015 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.2983 76.4% Fibo retrace of $1.2774-$1.3659

*SUP 4: $1.2921 1.618 swing of $1.3039-$1.3230

*COMMENTARY* A high of $1.3230 on Friday, the rally flattering to deceive and

falling back quickly as a result. The subsequent loss of the key $1.3085-$1.3070

area is now a concern. This sees the base of the range at $1.3027 becoming

vulnerable. Resistance falls to $1.3105-15, needing back above the latter to

improve in the near term and allow some further recovery. Below $1.3027, the

lower 1% volatility band protects $1.2983-$1.2921.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Another Downside Assault But Still Within Recent Range

*RES 4: Y114.74 Nov 6 high

*RES 3: Y114.34 Nov 7 high

*RES 2: Y114.07 Nov 9 high

*RES 1: Y113.70/75 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y113.34 @1050GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.09 Nov 9 low

*SUP 2: Y112.96 Oct 31 low

*SUP 3: Y112.65 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y112.38 76.4% Fibo of Y111.65-Y114.74

*COMMENTARY* Continued to fall last week after the less than successful break

above Y114.45-50 on Monday. At the moment, the decline is still within the

confines of the recent range, with support found around Y113.09 on Thursday.

This currently the protection to the base of the range and key Y112.96 level. In

the meantime, nearest resistance falls to Y113.70-Y114.07 but will need to climb

back above Y114.34, before the recent bear bias will be reduced.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y132.00 Break Allows Deeper Correction To Unfold

*RES 4: Y133.68 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y133.15 Nov 2 high

*RES 2: Y132.85 Hourly congestion Nov 3

*RES 1: Y132.60 Nov 10 high

*PRICE: Y131.98 @1054GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.69 Hourly base Nov 9

*SUP 3: Y131.40 Nov 8 low

*SUP 4: Y131.03 50% Fibo of Y127.56-Y134.50, 1% vol band

*COMMENTARY* Saw a move through Y132.27-Y132.42 resistance on Friday,

culminating in a high of Y132.60. Will need to see an added rise through Y132.85

however, before the near term bias for higher will be confirmed and another

challenge to the Nov 2 high at Y133.15. In the meantime, the loss of Y132.00 is

an initial concern, loss will caution now and point towards a deeper

Y131.69-Y131.40 pullback.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovery Continues, Eyes Stg0.8926-Stg0.8961 Next

*RES 4: Stg0.8961 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.9032-Stg0.8733

*RES 3: Stg0.8939 Nov 2 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8926 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Stg0.8919 Intraday high

*PRICE: Stg0.8901 @1100GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8870/75 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8840/45 Congestion area Nov 8-Nov 9

*SUP 3: Stg0.8824 Nov 9 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8791 Nov 7 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from Stg0.8791 last week, thereby saving the downside

from a test to the pivotal Stg0.8784-Stg0.8782 area. The subsequent recovery has

now broken back above Stg0.8885. This has seen a challenge and slight break

above Stg0.8912 resistance. Above here and the upper 1% volatility band at

Stg0.8926 then becomes the bar to a further Stg0.8939-Stg0.8961 rise. Support

now Stg0.8875-Stg0.8870, with Stg0.8845-Stg0.8840 below.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Still Some Congested Support In the Lower $1.26's

*RES 4: $1.2820 Nov 7 high

*RES 3: $1.2775/85 Series hourly highs Nov 3, Nov 6, Nov 8

*RES 2: $1.2741 Nov 9 high

*RES 1: $1.2715/25 Nov 8 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2703 @1110GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2650/66 1.618 swing $1.2715-$1.2820, Nov 10 low

*SUP 2: $1.2629/34 61.8% of $1.2451-$1.2917, Oct 25 low

*SUP 3: $1.2600/18 Oct 6 high, 61.8% of $1.2433-$1.2917

*SUP 4: $1.2547 76.4% Fibo of $1.2433-$1.2917

*COMMENTARY* The decline found some support on Friday at $1.2666, just ahead of

the swing target at $1.2650. This the beginning of some potentially congested

support from between $1.2634-$1.2600. Only below the latter will free up the

opportunity for a further $1.2547 fall. As a result, now looking towards

$1.2715-$1.2725 for nearest resistance, above would allow a higher

$1.2741-$1.2785 recovery.

GOLD TECHS: Swift Fall After Failed Challenge To $1289.9 Fibo Resistance

*RES 4: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 3: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 2: $1289.9 61.8% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 1: $1282.7 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1278.7 @1113GMT

*SUP 1: $1271.8 Nov 7 low

*SUP 2: $1265.5 Nov 3 low

*SUP 3: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*SUP 4: $1260.7 Oct 2 low

*COMMENTARY* After trying at the back end of last week, the rally was unable to

challenge and clear $1289.9 Fibo resistance. As a result, we have seen a swift

retreat, to close the week just above the Nov 7 low at $1271.8. Will need to

remain above this latter level, if the upside momentum gained since the $1265.5

low at the beginning of the month, is to survive. Resistance falls in th

meantime, $1282.7 now the bar to any upside renaissance.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]