MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1722 Protects Against A $1.1678-$1.1668 Fall

*RES 4: $1.1861 Nov 15 high

*RES 3: $1.1822/28 Nov 17 high, 76.4% of $1.1861-$1.1722

*RES 2: $1.1809 Nov 20 high

*RES 1: $1.1780/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1727 @1005GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1722 Nov 17 low

*SUP 2: $1.1678 Nov 10 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.1668 1.618 swing of $1.1722-$1.1809

*SUP 4: $1.1623/26 Nov 10 low, 76.4% of $1.1554-$1.1861

*COMMENTARY* Finding support from above Friday's $1.1722 low for the time being

and while this holds, there is scope to see a $1.1780-$1.1790 bounce, as we

correct losses from yesterday's $1.1809 high. Will actually require a move back

through the higher $1.1822-$1.1828 area however, before the near term bias can

turn higher again. Direct loss of $1.1722 will target $1.1678-$1.1668, the

latter the swing target of Monday's $1.1722-$1.1809 recovery.

CABLE TECHS: 1% Volatility Band In Way Of Return To Top Of Recent Range

*RES 4: $1.3418 61.8% Fibo of $1.3659-$1.3027

*RES 3: $1.3338/43 Oct 13 high, 50% Fibo of $1.3659-$1.3027

*RES 2: $1.3322 Nov 1 high

*RES 1: $1.3280/05 Nov 20 high, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: $1.3263 @0954GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3210/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3186 Nov 20 low

*SUP 3: $1.3170 Nov 17 low

*SUP 4: $1.3135 Hourly high Nov 13, Nov 16 low

*COMMENTARY* A high of $1.3280 on Monday as the upside tries to claw back losses

from the top of the recent range between $1.3322-$1.3338. Ahead of here, still

has to deal with the upper 1% volatility band, situated at $1.3305 by time

today. Support for the time being remains from $1.3220-$1.3210, the top of this

area holding setbacks yesterday. Loss will caution and suggest a deeper

$1.3186-$1.3115 fall.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Decline Holds At Top Of The Y111.91-Y111.65 Support Zone

*RES 4: Y113.69 Nov 6 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y113.33 Nov 16 high

*RES 2: Y112.95/00 Hourly congestion Nov 15-16

*RES 1: Y112.74 Nov 16 low, now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.53 @1001GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.10/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y111.89/91 Nov 20 low, 38.2% Fibo of Y107.32-Y114.74

*SUP 3: Y111.65 Oct 16 low

*SUP 4: Y111.03 50% Fibo of Y107.32-Y114.74

*COMMENTARY* Monday saw a fall to Y111.89, just inside the next key area of

support from between Y111.91-Y111.65. The latter an outstanding low from the

middle of last month. In the meantime, some oversold hourly conditions are being

repaired, Y112.74 now the immediate barrier to a higher Y112.95-Y113.00

recovery. Likely need back above the latter, before the current near term bear

bias is reduced and allow a higher Y113.33-Y114.07 rise.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Decline Tests And Holds Key Y131.14-Y131.03 Support Area

*RES 4: Y133.46 Nov 16 high

*RES 3: Y133.25/30 Hourly congestion area Nov 15

*RES 2: Y132.80 Nov 15 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y132.47/53 Nov 20 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y132.07 @1005GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.80/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.45 Hourly base Nov 20

*SUP 3: Y131.03/14 50% of Y127.56-Y134.50, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y130.62 Sep 14 low

*COMMENTARY* Rally tracked and was contained by the upper 1% volatility band at

Y133.89 last week, thereby failing to make any inroads into the previous Y134.50

high. The subsequent fall has been swift, testing the base of the recent range

and lower 1% volatility band between Y131.14-Y131.03. Some near term oversold

conditions have since prevailed, allowing a bounce. This sees Y132.47-Y132.53 as

immediate resistance, Y132.80-Y133.30 above.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Immediate Focus Is On Stg0.8837 Support

*RES 4: Stg0.8954 Nov 17 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8930/35 Hourly congestion highs Nov 16-17

*RES 2: Stg0.8905 Nov 20 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8880/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8858 @1012GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8837 Nov 13 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8811 Nov 10 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8791/00 Nov 7 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8733 Nov 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Faltered at Stg0.9015 last week, shy of the previous month's

Stg0.9022-Stg0.9032 highs. Wednesday's lower close, then saw the appearance of a

bearish 'Shooting Star' candle. This has resulted in a sharp fall, which has

today broken below the 76.4% Fibo level at Stg0.8859. Immediate attention now on

Stg0.8837, below would switch to Stg0.8811-Stg0.8791. Resistance from

Stg0.8880-Stg0.8890 and then yesterday's Stg0.8905 high.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2770-$1.2750 Keeps Hopes Of Fresh Rally Alive

*RES 4: $1.2917/27 Oct 27 high, 50% of $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 3: $1.2880 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.2856/60 76.4% of $1.2917-$1.2666

*RES 1: $1.2820/24 Nov 7 high, 61.8% Fibo, Nov 17 high

*PRICE: $1.2817 @1013GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2755/70 Nov 20 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2740 76.4% Fibo of $1.2714-$1.2824

*SUP 3: $1.2714 Nov 17 low

*SUP 4: $1.2666 Nov 10 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from the month's earlier $1.2666 low eventually made

it to $1.2824 last Friday, just above the Nov 7 high and 61.8% Fibo retrace

level at $1.2820. Has subsequently retreated, aided by some near term overbought

conditions. The $1.2755-$1.2740 area now becomes the support  to watch, needing

a hold here and then break back above $1.2820-24, if the rally is to continue.

Loss will caution and eventually see pressure return to $1.2714-$1.2666.

GOLD TECHS: Reaches Higher, But Unable To Overcome $1296.1 Resistance 

*RES 4: $1306.1 Oct 16 high

*RES 3: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 2: $1290.1 Hourly base Nov 17, now resistance

*RES 1: $1283.2 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1280.2 @1014GMT

*SUP 1: $1274.6 Nov 20 low

*SUP 2: $1269.9 Nov 14 low

*SUP 3: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*SUP 4: $1260.7 Oct 6 low

*COMMENTARY* Failed to break above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1296.1 last

Friday, the subsequent fallout gaining pace, after the move back below $1289.9.

A low of $1274.6 seen yesterday, slightly below the preferred $1275.2 support.

Oversold as a result of this two day fall, so looking to $1283.2 for initial

clues, $1290.1 on any break higher. Below $1274.6 would concern and return

pressure to the base of the recent range, above the Oct 6 low at $1260.7.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]