MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Decline Edges Towards Next $1.1809-$1.1773 Support Area

*RES 4: $1.2020 Equality rise from $1.1713 to $1.1554-$1.1861

*RES 3: $1.1961/66 Nov 27 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2093-$1.1554

*RES 2: $1.1920 Nov 28 high

*RES 1: $1.1876/83 Intraday, Nov 29 highs

*PRICE: $1.1818 @1012GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1809 Nov 20 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1.1791 1.618 swing of $1.1826-$1.1883

*SUP 3: $1.1773 Initial recovery high Nov 22, now support

*SUP 4: $1.1757 50% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.1961

*COMMENTARY* Moved through the swing target at $1.1952 on Monday but was unable

to deal with Fibo resistance at $1.1966. A high of $1.1961 before retreating and

with the subsequent loss of $1.1861-$1.1837 support, this now has the scope to

see $1.1809-$1.1791 next. Any lower and $1.1773 protects against an eventual

$1.1713 return. Meanwhile, resistance comes initially from $1.1876 but back

above yesterday's $1.1883 high needed to generate fresh upside interest.

CABLE TECHS: Approaches Next $1.3483-$1.3510 Resistance Band

*RES 4: $1.3586/96 2% volatility band, Sep 22 high

*RES 3: $1.3565 1.618x 1.3027-$1.3338 from $1.3062

*RES 2: $1.3510 76.4% Fibo of $1.3659-$1.3027

*RES 1: $1.3483 1.618 swing of $1.3383-$1.3221

*PRICE: $1.3461 @1025GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3420/25 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3405 Hourly base Nov 28

*SUP 3: $1.3374/83 Hourly base Nov 29, Nov 27 high

*SUP 4: $1.3336 Nov 29 low

*COMMENTARY* Has now broken above both the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.3418

and the upper 1% volatility band at $1.3452 by time today. The latter had been

making a good fist of containing the rise through the latter part of this month.

Now approaching the swing target at $1.3483 and the remaining Fibo retrace level

at $1.3510. In the interim, support rises  to $1.3425-$1.3405, loss of the

latter would caution now and suggest some deeper corrective action required.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Recovery Continues, Y112.72-Y112.79 Next Upside Barrier

*RES 4: Y113.25/33 61.8% of Y114.74-Y110.84, Nov 16 high

*RES 3: Y113.00 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y112.72/79 Nov 20 high, 50% Fibo of Y114.74-Y110.84

*RES 1: Y112.48 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y112.35 @1035GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.90/00 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y111.69 Nov 24 high, hourly base Nov 29

*SUP 3: Y111.48 Hourly high Nov 28, now support

*SUP 4: Y111.20/25 Hourly congestion area Nov 28

*COMMENTARY* The recovery has continued, moving through Y112.22-Y112.35

resistance in the process. This now sees Y112.72-Y112.79 as the next potential

target area, as we proceed to correct the Y114.74-Y110.84 fall seen during the

course of the month. As a result, support also rises, Y112.00-Y111.90 initially,

with Y111.69 currently of more importance below. Above Y112.79 and the upper 1%

volatility band bars the way to Y113.25-Y113.29.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Recent Range Still Guided By 1% Volatility Bands

*RES 4: Y133.89 Nov 14 high

*RES 3: Y133.71 76.4% Fibo of Y134.50-Y131.17

*RES 2: Y133.55 1% volatility band 

*RES 1: Y133.24/31 61.8% Y134.50-Y131.17, Nov 24, i'day high

*PRICE: Y132.94 @1045GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.55/65 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y132.10/30 Congestion area Nov 27-29

*SUP 3: Y131.72 Nov 28 low

*SUP 4: Y131.17 Nov 17 low

*COMMENTARY* Has been trading within a range over the last month that has been

set by the parameters of the 1% volatility bands. The latest rise is now

challenging and slightly breaking above last Friday's Y133.24 high and once

again moving towards the upper band, at Y133.55 by time today. Meanwhile,

support rises to Y132.65-Y132.55, with the congested Y132.30-Y132.10 area

backing it up below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Continues Lower, Stg0.8756-Stg0.8745 Next Target Zone

*RES 4: Stg0.8900 Hourly low Nov 28, now resistance

*RES 3: Stg0.8880 Hourly recovery high Nov 28

*RES 2: Stg0.8847 Nov 28 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Stg0.8825/30 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8789 @1055GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8766 Nov 2 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8756 1.618 swing of Stg0.8842-Stg0.8981

*SUP 3: Stg0.8745 Equality from 0.8880 to 0.8982-0.0.8847

*SUP 4: Stg0.8733 Nov 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain the break above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

Stg0.8974 on Tuesday, a high of Stg0.8981 before losing ground, which was

exacerbated by the loss of Stg0.8915 support. Below here has seen further

pressure and subsequent break of the next Stg0.8842-Stg0.8840 support area. This

was the protection against a deeper Stg0.8799-Stg0.8756 fall. In the interim,

resistance From Stg0.8825-Stg0.8847, provides the bar to any near term recovery.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovery Now Enters Congested $1.2899-$1.2938 Area

*RES 4: $1.3014/16 Jul 3, Jul 4, Jul 5 highs

*RES 3: $1.2938 1.618 swing of $1.2837-$1.2673

*RES 2: $1.2927 Oct 31, Oct 27 highs

*RES 1: $1.2913/17 1% volatility band, Oct 31, Oct 27 highs

*PRICE: $1.2895 @1106GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2825/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2804 Nov 29 low

*SUP 3: $1.2748/54 Nov 24 high, Nov 28 low

*SUP 4: $1.2715 Hourly congestion Nov 23-24

*COMMENTARY* The recovery finally broke through initial $1.2805 resistance on

Tuesday, after some intervening overbought conditions allowed a $1.2754 setback.

This allowed momentum to remain with the upside and to chase down last week's

$1.2837 high and more importantly the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2858. This now

sees congested resistance from between $1.2899-$1.2938 as barring the way

higher. Support from between $1.2840-$1.2804 currently protects the downside.

GOLD TECHS: $1299.7 Contains Rally And Prefaces Pullback

*RES 4: $1306.1 Oct 16 high

*RES 3: $1299.3/7 Nov 27 high, hourly resistance

*RES 2: $1294.8 Nov 22 high

*RES 1: $1290.7 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1281.9 @1110GMT

*SUP 1: $1279.1 Nov 22 low

*SUP 2: $1274.6 Nov 20 low

*SUP 3: $1269.9 Nov 14 low

*SUP 4: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*COMMENTARY* Continues to basically play the $1296.1-$1269.9 range, looking to

find the vulnerable side. Currently, a move above $1296.1 can be halted around

$1299.7, ahead of more prominent targets at $1306.1-$1309.2. While

$1296.1-$1299.7 caps, then the risk remains for a slide back down the recent

range, the loss of $1282.5 now suggesting scope for a further $1279.1-$1274.6

fall, ahead of that range base at $1269.9.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]