MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Still Congested Support From Between $1.1728-$1.1694

*RES 4: $1.1877 Dec 5 high

*RES 3: $1.1848 Dec 6 high

*RES 2: $1.1809/15 Nov 30 low, Dec 7 high

*RES 1: $1.1785/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1747 @0920GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1720/28 1% vol band, 1.618 swing $1.1809-$1.1940

*SUP 2: $1.1709/13 61.8% of $1.1554-$1.1961, Nov 21 low

*SUP 3: $1.1694 1.618x 1.1961-$1.1809 from $1.1940

*SUP 4: $1.1650 76.4% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.1961

*COMMENTARY* The decline has broken below key near term support from around the

76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.1773.  Below and there is still plenty of

congested support now from between $1.1728-$1.$1.1694, that is capable of

providing protection to the next key level, another 76.4% Fibo retrace at

$1.1650. Resistance $1.1785-$1.1795 but back above $1.1809-$1.1815 needed to

generate upside interest.

CABLE TECHS: A $1.3445 Hold Needed To Stave Off A Correction

*RES 4: $1.3659 Sep 20 high

*RES 3: $1.3571 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.3550 Dec 1 high

*RES 1: $1.3521 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.3483 @0940GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3445 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3398 Initial recovery high Dec 7, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3365 Hourly basing area Dec 6-Dec 7

*SUP 4: $1.3314/20 1.618 swing $1.3370-$1.3461, Dec 7 low

*COMMENTARY* Continued lower, after the $1.3370-74 area gave way on Wednesday,

it was the turn of $1.3345-$1.3338 on Thursday. Finally found a base at $1.3320,

just above the swing target at $1.3314 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.3299.

The subsequent recovery has been relatively quick aided by the return above

$1.3461. Now needs to sustain a move back above $1.3505, if a $1.3550-$1.3571

rise is to follow. Support $1.3445, loss would instigate correction.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Fresh Rise Has Y113.60-Y113.82 Resistance Ahead

*RES 4: Y114.74 Nov 6 high, 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Y114.24/34 Equality rise from Y111.99, Nov 7 high

*RES 2: Y113.82 76.4% Fibo of Y114.74-Y110.84

*RES 1: Y113.60/77 1% vol band, 1.618 swing Y113.09-Y111.99

*PRICE: Y113.57 @0955GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.00/09 Hourly support, Dec 4 high

*SUP 2: Y112.80 Hourly high Dec 7, now support

*SUP 3: Y112.57 Hourly base Dec 7

*SUP 4: Y112.38 Initial recovery high Dec 6, now support

*COMMENTARY* The move through Y112.87 and then Monday's Y113.09 high, has

generated fresh upside interest. This now centres on Y113.60-Y113.82. A

combination of the upper 1% volatility band and the 76.4% retrace level of the

preceding Y114.74-Y110.84 fall. While capped here, look to Y113.09-Y113.00 for

initial support and clues, as loss will open up corrective potential of the rise

from Y111.99. Above Y113.82 and Y114.24-Y114.34 next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Fibo Retrace At Y132.55 The Immediate Bar To Further Gains

*RES 4: Y134.05 Dec 4 high

*RES 3: Y133.88 76.4% Fibo of Y134.38-Y132.26

*RES 2: Y133.75 Dec 5 high

*RES 1: Y133.46/57 Intraday high, 61.8% of Y134.38-Y132.26

*PRICE: Y133.28 @1008GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.90/00 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y132.71 Hourly base Dec 7

*SUP 3: Y132.55 Hourly congestion area Dec 6

*SUP 4: Y132.26 Dec 6 low

*COMMENTARY* Having found support at Y132.26 on Wednesday, now moving back up

the Y134.50-Y131.17 range, that has been in existence for the last 3 months. The

61.8% Fibo retrace level at Y133.57 is the next potential barrier to gains,

Y133.75-Y133.88 higher. In the interim, support comes from Y133.00-Y132.90, loss

would trigger a deeper correction of that rise from Y132.26, with

Y132.71-Y132.55 below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Fresh Fall Has Support From Between Stg0.8692-Stg0.8687

*RES 4: Stg0.8850/54 Dec 7, Dec 6 highs

*RES 3: Stg0.8810/15 Congestion pivot Nov 30-Dec 7 

*RES 2: Stg0.8780 Dec 5 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Stg0.8750/56 Hourly resistance, Dec 4 low

*PRICE: Stg0.8712 @1025GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8689/92 I'day low, 61.8% of Stg0.8313-Stg0.9306

*SUP 2: Stg0.8687 1.618 swing of Stg0.8756-Stg0.8868

*SUP 3: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low, equality fall from Stg0.8868

*SUP 4: Stg0.8634 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from Monday's Stg0.8756 low was unable to deal with

Stg0.8868-Stg0.8880 resistance. This leaving the downside vulnerable to a

further assault. Initial warning was the move back below Stg0.8780 on Thursday,

which has been followed by Stg0.8756 today. Next set of supports now come from

between Stg0.8692-Stg0.8687, these protecting against a Stg0.8642 fall.

Resistance Stg0.8750-Stg0.8756, above would allow some near term respite.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2885-$1.2893 The Bar To $1.2909-$1.2927 Return

*RES 4: $1.2969 Jan 31 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2917/27 Oct 27 high, 50% $1.3794-$1.2061, 1% vol

*RES 2: $1.2909 Nov 30 high

*RES 1: $1.2885/93 Hourly recovery highs Dec 1

*PRICE: $1.2860 @1031GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2805/10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2775/85 Hourly basing area Dec 6

*SUP 3: $1.2727 Dec 4 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2707 Initial high Dec 6, now support

*COMMENTARY* Held on Tuesday, by support from the lower 1% volatility band at

$1.2624. The subsequent recovery was faltering for a while between $1.2705-10

resistance but found the impetus for a break higher on Wednesday. This rally has

surpassed all near term resistance including the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2842.

The $1.2885-$1.2893 area now the remaining barrier to further upside hopes.

Support $1.2810-1.2775, loss would concern.

GOLD TECHS: Decline Has $1242.5-$1240.9 As Next Potential Target Zone

*RES 4: $1270.4 Nov 30 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1263.8 Oct 27 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1260.7 Oct 6 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1254.5 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1245.6 @1044GMT

*SUP 1: $1242.5 1.618x $1299.3-$1270.4 from $1289.3

*SUP 2: $1241.9 1.618 swing of $1263.8-$1299.3

*SUP 3: $1240.9 76.4% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7

*SUP 4: $1232.6 1.618 swing of $1260.7-$1306.1

*COMMENTARY* Having lost key support from $1262.3 and $1260.7 earlier in the

week, the pace of the fall has quickened. This now sees congested support from

between $1242.5 and $1240.9, as the next potential target area and a brake

against a deeper $1232.6 decline. Resistance meanwhile, comes initially from

$1254.5, above which a succession of recent lows now combine to form an umbrella

of resistance above.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]