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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pressure Returns To The Downside, While $1.1793-$1.1815
*RES 4: $1.1848 Dec 6 high
*RES 3: $1.1812/15 Dec 11, Dec 7 highs
*RES 2: $1.1793 Dec 12 high
*RES 1: $1.1765/75 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1751 @1000GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1709/13 61.8% of $1.1554-$1.1961, Nov 21 low
*SUP 2: $1.1679/94 1% vol, 1.618x 1.1961-$1.1809 from $1.1940
*SUP 3: $1.1650 76.4% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.1961
*SUP 4: $1.1581 Top of broken 4 month resistance line
*COMMENTARY* Failure to move through $1.1812-$1.1815 on Monday was the catalyst
for the latest fall below $1.1750, which once again sees focus return to
$1.1713-$1.1709 support. While held above here, look to $1.1765-$1.1775 for
initial resistance, above and $1.1793 now bars the way to still important
$1.1812-$1.1815. Loss of $1.1709 will trigger potential for a further
$1.1694-$1.1650 fall. Only below the latter will open up $1.1581-$1.1554.
CABLE TECHS: $1.3298-$1.3285 The Near Term Protection To Downside
*RES 4: $1.3460/70 Pivotal highs/lows early December
*RES 3: $1.3432 Dec 11 high
*RES 2: $1.3405/08 Hourly congestion Dec 8-Dec 11
*RES 1: $1.3381 Dec 12 high, broken 4 week support line
*PRICE: $1.3348 @1009GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3285/98 1% vol band, 76.4% of $1.3221-$1.3549
*SUP 2: $1.3221/27 Nov 28 low, 61.8% of $1.3027-$1.3550
*SUP 3: $1.3196 1.618 swing of $1.3320-$1.3521
*SUP 4: $1.3150 76.4% Fibo of $1.3027-$1.3550, 2% vol band
*COMMENTARY* The 4 week rising support line gave way on Monday, once again
putting the congested $1.3320-$1.3285 area back in the shop window. Only clearly
below the latter will open up the potential for a deeper $1.3221-$1.3196 fall,
as the disappointment from last week's $1.3550 cap grows. Resistance in the
meantime, comes from Tuesday's $1.3381 high and then the $1.3405-$1.3408 region.
Back above here needed to reignite upside interest.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y113.13-Y113.09 Support Holds Off Deeper Corrective Potential
*RES 4: Y114.74 Nov 6 high
*RES 3: Y114.24/34 Equality rise from Y111.99, Nov 7 high
*RES 2: Y114.10 1% volatility band
*RES 1: Y113.82 76.4% Fibo of Y114.74-Y110.84
*PRICE: Y113.41 @1015GMT
*SUP 1: Y113.09/13 Dec 4 high, Dec 8 & intraday lows
*SUP 2: Y112.80 Hourly high Dec 7, now support
*SUP 3: Y112.57 Hourly base Dec 7
*SUP 4: Y112.38 Initial recovery high Dec 6, now support
*COMMENTARY* Unable as yet to make an impression on the 76.4% Fibo retrace level
at Y113.82. Tuesday's rally pulling up shy at Y113.75. This also keeps us below
the upper 1% volatility band, which has risen by time today to Y114.10. This
Y113.82-Y114.10 region is the area to break, if the recovery is to continue and
challenge Y114.24-Y114.74 next. Meanwhile, support from between Y113.13-Y113.09
is the protection against a correction from the Dec 6 low at Y111.99.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Fibo Retrace At Y132.88 The Immediate Bar To Further Gains
*RES 4: Y134.50/75 Oct 25 high, 1% volatility band
*RES 3: Y134.38 Dec 1 high
*RES 2: Y134.05 Dec 4 high
*RES 1: Y133.88/89 76.4% of Y134.38-Y132.26, Dec 11 high
*PRICE: Y133.23 @1020GMT
*SUP 1: Y133.01/04 Dec 12, intraday lows
*SUP 2: Y132.71 Hourly base Dec 7
*SUP 3: Y132.55 Hourly congestion area Dec 6
*SUP 4: Y132.26 Dec 6 low
*COMMENTARY* Found support at Y132.26 last Wednesday, then subsequently moving
back up the Y134.50-Y131.17 range, that has been in existence for the last 3
months. The 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y133.88 is the next potential barrier to
gains, Y134.05-Y134.38 higher. In the interim, support now comes from
Y133.04-Y133.01, loss would trigger a deeper correction of that rise from
Y132.26, with Y132.71-Y132.55 below.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Continued Rally Still Dependent On Stg0.8850-54 Resistance
*RES 4: Stg0.8915 Hourly base Nov 28, now resistance
*RES 3: Stg0.8880/85 Hourly high Nov 28, 1% volatility band
*RES 2: Stg0.8868 Dec 5 high 
*RES 1: Stg0.8850/54 Dec 7, Dec 6 highs
*PRICE: Stg0.8797 @1026GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8773 Dec 11 low
*SUP 2: Stg0.8745/50 Minor hourly congestion Dec 7-8
*SUP 3: Stg0.8725 Initial high Dec 8, now support
*SUP 4: Stg0.8687/89 1.618 swing 0.8756-0.8868, Dec 8 low
*COMMENTARY* The fate of a continued recovery is firmly in the hands of
Stg0.8850-Stg0.8854 resistance. Will need to cross back above here, if the
correction of losses from the late November high at Stg0.8982 is to continue,
with Stg0.8868-Stg0.8880 again expected to feature higher, with the upper 1%
volatility band at the slightly higher Stg0.8885. Support from Stg0.8773. Loss
of the latter would caution.
     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2885-$1.2893 Still The Bar To Further Gains
*RES 4: $1.2969 Jan 31 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $1.2917/27 Oct 27 high, 50% $1.3794-$1.2061, 1% vol
*RES 2: $1.2909 Nov 30 high
*RES 1: $1.2885/93 Hourly recovery highs Dec 1
*PRICE: $1.2873 @1031GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2813/25 Dec 12 low, hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2805 Dec 8 low
*SUP 3: $1.2785 Hourly base Dec 6
*SUP 4: $1.2727 Dec 4 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Held last week, by support from the lower 1% volatility band at
$1.2624. The subsequent recovery was faltering for a while between  1.2705-10
resistance but found the impetus for a break higher on Wednesday. This rally has
surpassed all near term resistance including the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2842.
The $1.2885-$1.2893 area now the remaining barrier to further upside hopes.
Support $1.2825-1.2805, loss would concern.
GOLD TECHS: Decline Continues, $1232.6-$1230.9 Next Target Area
*RES 4: $1270.4 Nov 30 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $1265.1 Underside broken 2017 bull channel
*RES 2: $1260.7 Oct 6 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1252.5 Dec 8 high
*PRICE: $1241.4 @1038GMT
*SUP 1: $1236.6 Dec 12 low
*SUP 2: $1232.6 1.618 swing of $1260.7-$1306.1
*SUP 3: $1230.9 1.618x $1306.1-$1263.8 from $1299.3
*SUP 4: $1212.4 61.8% Fibo of $1122.6-$1357.7
*COMMENTARY* Having lost key support from $1262.3 and $1260.7 earlier last week,
the pace of the fall quickened. This now threatening a further drop through
congested support from between $1242.5 and $1240.2. This was the brake against a
deeper $1232.6-$1230.9 decline. Resistance meanwhile, comes initially from
$1252.5, above which a succession of recent lows and the underside of the broken
2017 bull channel, now combine to form an umbrella of resistance above.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email:
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