MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Overbought Near Term On Return Towards $1.1863-$1.1868

*RES 4: $1.1961 Nov 27 high

*RES 3: $1.1940 Dec 1 high, 1.618 swing $1.1863-$1.1738 

*RES 2: $1.1903/05 76.4% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1717, 1% vol band

*RES 1: $1.1863/68 Dec 14 high, 61.8% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1717

*PRICE: $1.1842 @0938GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1775/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1738 Dec 15 low

*SUP 3: $1.1709/13 61.8% of $1.1554-$1.1961, Nov 21 low

*SUP 4: $1.1694 1.618x 1.1961-$1.1809 from $1.1940

*COMMENTARY* A deeper setback than anticipated last Friday, the loss of $1.1763

seeing a dip to $1.1738. This still leaves the key $1.1713-$1.1694 support

intact. The subsequent recovery has now risen through $1.1835-$1.1845 and is

again in a position to challenge the Dec 14 high and 61.8% Fibo retrace levels

at $1.1863-68 but does so with near term conditions unfavourably overbought.

Some pullback may be necessary, $1.1790-$1.1775 protects $1.1738 again.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3420-$1.3430 Break Would Assist Upside Hopes

*RES 4: $1.3520 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3492 76.4% Fibo of $1.3550-$1.3303

*RES 2: $1.3460/70 Pivotal highs/lows early December

*RES 1: $1.3420/30 Hourly congestion Dec 14-15

*PRICE: $1.3400 @0943GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3331/45 Dec 19 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3298/03 76.4% of $1.3221-$1.3549, Dec 15 low

*SUP 3: $1.3253 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.3221/27 Nov 28 low, 61.8% of $1.3027-$1.3550, 

*COMMENTARY* The $1.3303-$1.3298 area once again came to the rescue on Friday.

The sharp decline from last week's $1.3467 high was arrested at $1.3302, before

finding some respite on the back of some near term oversold conditions. The

subsequent rally through $1.3380-90, now faces resistance from $1.3420-30. Will

ultimately need back through here to renew upside potential and stave off

further downside probing. In the interim, support moves to $1.3345-$1.3330.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y113.13-Y113.37 Resistance As Recovery Continues

*RES 4: Y114.18 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y113.75/82 Dec 12 high, 76.4% of Y114.74-Y110.84

*RES 2: Y113.37 Dec 12 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y113.13/17 Hourly congestion Dec 13, intraday high

*PRICE: Y113.18 @1002GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.60/67 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y112.51 Dec 19 low

*SUP 3: Y112.31 Dec 18 low

*SUP 4: Y111.95/99 61.8% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75, Dec 6 low

*COMMENTARY* Unable to make an impression on the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

Y113.82 last week. Tuesday's rally pulling up shy at Y113.75. The subsequent

fall and break below Y113.13-Y113.09, began a correction, which with the further

loss of Y112.46-Y112.38, once again put the spotlight on Y111.99-Y111.95

support. This has held and has seen signs of another recovery. Now looking at

Y113.13-Y113.37 as barring the way to a Y113.75-Y113.82 return.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus Once Again On Range Top As Recovery Continues

*RES 4: Y135.82/92 1.618 swing Y134.38-Y132.05, 2% vol band

*RES 3: Y134.50/59 Oct 25 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y134.38 Dec 1 high

*RES 1: Y134.11 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y134.08 @1027GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.60/65 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y133.25/30 Minor hourly congestion Dec 19

*SUP 3: Y133.01 Dec 18 high, now support

*SUP 4: Y132.55 Hourly base Dec 18

*COMMENTARY* Racing up the range after the hold at 132.05 last week, yesterday

prompted a rise through Y133.35 resistance and now today above Y133.76-Y133.89.

The latter seen as the potential bar to a return towards the top of the range

between Y134.38-Y134.59. A move above the latter is however required, before the

topside is fully back in control and targeting Y135.82-Y135.92. Meanwhile,

support rises to Y133.65-Y133.60, loss would open corrective opportunities.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8868 Resistance Presents Next Barrier To Recovery

*RES 4: Stg0.8915 Hourly base Nov 28, now resistance

*RES 3: Stg0.8900 1.618 swing of Stg0.8846-Stg0.8761

*RES 2: Stg0.8880/90 Hourly high Nov 28, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Stg0.8867/68 Dec 19, Dec 5 highs 

*PRICE: Stg0.8844 @1032GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8785/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8761 Dec 14 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8725 Initial high Dec 8, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8687/89 1.618 swing 0.8756-0.8868, Dec 8 low

*COMMENTARY* Found the strength for a move through Stg0.8850-54 last Friday but

for the time being the rally has stalled below the base of the next Stg0.8868

resistance area. Will now need to see a move through here, if the correction of

losses from the late November high at Stg0.8982 is to continue, with

Stg0.8880-Stg0.8915 then of interest higher. Support from Stg0.8795-Stg0.8785,

last Thursday's Stg0.8761 low now important below.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovery Once Again Faces $1.2917-$1.2927 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.3004 1.618 swing of $1.2893-$1.2714

*RES 3: $1.2969/83 Jan 31 low, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.2927 50% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 1: $1.2917/21 Oct 27, Dec 19 highs

*PRICE: $1.2858 @1035GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2843 Dec 18 low

*SUP 2: $1.2816 Initial recovery high Dec 14, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2786 Hourly high Dec 15, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2739 Dec 15 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from $1.2714 last week. This and the $1.2687-$1.2665

area present important support now. In the interim, the subsequent rally on

Friday through firstly $1.2816 and then $1.2855, has once again brought us

toward $1.2917, a level that capped rallies since late October. This and the 50%

Fibo retrace at $1.2927 are the bar to a higher $1.2969-$1.3004 rise. Meanwhile,

$1.2843 protects against any corrective action.

GOLD TECHS: Broken 2017 Bull Channel Base Now Features As Resistance

*RES 4: $1284.5 76.4% Fibo of $1299.3-$1236.6

*RES 3: $1275.3 61.8% Fibo of $1299.3-$1236.6

*RES 2: $1270.4 Nov 30 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1267.8 Underside broken 2017 bull channel

*PRICE: $1265.7 @1038GMT

*SUP 1: $1247.6 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low

*SUP 3: $1232.6 1.618 swing of $1260.7-$1306.1

*SUP 4: $1230.9 1.618x $1306.1-$1263.8 from $1299.3

*COMMENTARY* A low of $1236.6 last Tuesday, above the next targeted support area

from between $1232.6-$1230.9. The subsequent bounce, aided by some heavily

oversold conditions as a result of this month's decline from $1299.3 and with

the break above $1260.7, now faces resistance from the base of the broken 2017

bull channel at $1267.8. Will need back above here, before any real upside

interest will appear. Nearest support in the meantime, rises to $1247.6.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]