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Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Overbought Near Term On Return Towards $1.1863-$1.1868
*RES 4: $1.1961 Nov 27 high
*RES 3: $1.1940 Dec 1 high, 1.618 swing $1.1863-$1.1738
*RES 2: $1.1903/05 76.4% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1717, 1% vol band
*RES 1: $1.1863/68 Dec 14 high, 61.8% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1717
*PRICE: $1.1842 @0938GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1775/90 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.1738 Dec 15 low
*SUP 3: $1.1709/13 61.8% of $1.1554-$1.1961, Nov 21 low
*SUP 4: $1.1694 1.618x 1.1961-$1.1809 from $1.1940
*COMMENTARY* A deeper setback than anticipated last Friday, the loss of $1.1763
seeing a dip to $1.1738. This still leaves the key $1.1713-$1.1694 support
intact. The subsequent recovery has now risen through $1.1835-$1.1845 and is
again in a position to challenge the Dec 14 high and 61.8% Fibo retrace levels
at $1.1863-68 but does so with near term conditions unfavourably overbought.
Some pullback may be necessary, $1.1790-$1.1775 protects $1.1738 again.
CABLE TECHS: $1.3420-$1.3430 Break Would Assist Upside Hopes
*RES 4: $1.3520 1% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.3492 76.4% Fibo of $1.3550-$1.3303
*RES 2: $1.3460/70 Pivotal highs/lows early December
*RES 1: $1.3420/30 Hourly congestion Dec 14-15
*PRICE: $1.3400 @0943GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3331/45 Dec 19 low, hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3298/03 76.4% of $1.3221-$1.3549, Dec 15 low
*SUP 3: $1.3253 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.3221/27 Nov 28 low, 61.8% of $1.3027-$1.3550,
*COMMENTARY* The $1.3303-$1.3298 area once again came to the rescue on Friday.
The sharp decline from last week's $1.3467 high was arrested at $1.3302, before
finding some respite on the back of some near term oversold conditions. The
subsequent rally through $1.3380-90, now faces resistance from $1.3420-30. Will
ultimately need back through here to renew upside potential and stave off
further downside probing. In the interim, support moves to $1.3345-$1.3330.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y113.13-Y113.37 Resistance As Recovery Continues
*RES 4: Y114.18 1% volatility band
*RES 3: Y113.75/82 Dec 12 high, 76.4% of Y114.74-Y110.84
*RES 2: Y113.37 Dec 12 low, now resistance
*RES 1: Y113.13/17 Hourly congestion Dec 13, intraday high
*PRICE: Y113.18 @1002GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.60/67 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y112.51 Dec 19 low
*SUP 3: Y112.31 Dec 18 low
*SUP 4: Y111.95/99 61.8% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75, Dec 6 low
*COMMENTARY* Unable to make an impression on the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at
Y113.82 last week. Tuesday's rally pulling up shy at Y113.75. The subsequent
fall and break below Y113.13-Y113.09, began a correction, which with the further
loss of Y112.46-Y112.38, once again put the spotlight on Y111.99-Y111.95
support. This has held and has seen signs of another recovery. Now looking at
Y113.13-Y113.37 as barring the way to a Y113.75-Y113.82 return.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus Once Again On Range Top As Recovery Continues
*RES 4: Y135.82/92 1.618 swing Y134.38-Y132.05, 2% vol band
*RES 3: Y134.50/59 Oct 25 high, 1% volatility band
*RES 2: Y134.38 Dec 1 high
*RES 1: Y134.11 Intraday high
*PRICE: Y134.08 @1027GMT
*SUP 1: Y133.60/65 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y133.25/30 Minor hourly congestion Dec 19
*SUP 3: Y133.01 Dec 18 high, now support
*SUP 4: Y132.55 Hourly base Dec 18
*COMMENTARY* Racing up the range after the hold at 132.05 last week, yesterday
prompted a rise through Y133.35 resistance and now today above Y133.76-Y133.89.
The latter seen as the potential bar to a return towards the top of the range
between Y134.38-Y134.59. A move above the latter is however required, before the
topside is fully back in control and targeting Y135.82-Y135.92. Meanwhile,
support rises to Y133.65-Y133.60, loss would open corrective opportunities.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8868 Resistance Presents Next Barrier To Recovery
*RES 4: Stg0.8915 Hourly base Nov 28, now resistance
*RES 3: Stg0.8900 1.618 swing of Stg0.8846-Stg0.8761
*RES 2: Stg0.8880/90 Hourly high Nov 28, 1% volatility band
*RES 1: Stg0.8867/68 Dec 19, Dec 5 highs
*PRICE: Stg0.8844 @1032GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8785/95 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8761 Dec 14 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8725 Initial high Dec 8, now support
*SUP 4: Stg0.8687/89 1.618 swing 0.8756-0.8868, Dec 8 low
*COMMENTARY* Found the strength for a move through Stg0.8850-54 last Friday but
for the time being the rally has stalled below the base of the next Stg0.8868
resistance area. Will now need to see a move through here, if the correction of
losses from the late November high at Stg0.8982 is to continue, with
Stg0.8880-Stg0.8915 then of interest higher. Support from Stg0.8795-Stg0.8785,
last Thursday's Stg0.8761 low now important below.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovery Once Again Faces $1.2917-$1.2927 Resistance
*RES 4: $1.3004 1.618 swing of $1.2893-$1.2714
*RES 3: $1.2969/83 Jan 31 low, 1% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.2927 50% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061
*RES 1: $1.2917/21 Oct 27, Dec 19 highs
*PRICE: $1.2858 @1035GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2843 Dec 18 low
*SUP 2: $1.2816 Initial recovery high Dec 14, now support
*SUP 3: $1.2786 Hourly high Dec 15, now support
*SUP 4: $1.2739 Dec 15 low
*COMMENTARY* Found support from $1.2714 last week. This and the $1.2687-$1.2665
area present important support now. In the interim, the subsequent rally on
Friday through firstly $1.2816 and then $1.2855, has once again brought us
toward $1.2917, a level that capped rallies since late October. This and the 50%
Fibo retrace at $1.2927 are the bar to a higher $1.2969-$1.3004 rise. Meanwhile,
$1.2843 protects against any corrective action.
GOLD TECHS: Broken 2017 Bull Channel Base Now Features As Resistance
*RES 4: $1284.5 76.4% Fibo of $1299.3-$1236.6
*RES 3: $1275.3 61.8% Fibo of $1299.3-$1236.6
*RES 2: $1270.4 Nov 30 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1267.8 Underside broken 2017 bull channel
*PRICE: $1265.7 @1038GMT
*SUP 1: $1247.6 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low
*SUP 3: $1232.6 1.618 swing of $1260.7-$1306.1
*SUP 4: $1230.9 1.618x $1306.1-$1263.8 from $1299.3
*COMMENTARY* A low of $1236.6 last Tuesday, above the next targeted support area
from between $1232.6-$1230.9. The subsequent bounce, aided by some heavily
oversold conditions as a result of this month's decline from $1299.3 and with
the break above $1260.7, now faces resistance from the base of the broken 2017
bull channel at $1267.8. Will need back above here, before any real upside
interest will appear. Nearest support in the meantime, rises to $1247.6.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.