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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: China November PMI Rises Further Above 50
MNI US Macro Weekly: Politics To The Fore
MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Reaches 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level
*RES 4: $1.1961 Nov 27 high
*RES 3: $1.1940 Dec 1 high, 1.618 swing $1.1863-$1.1738
*RES 2: $1.1920 1% volatility band
*RES 1: $1.1902/03 Dec 20 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1717
*PRICE: $1.1881 @0936GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1845/55 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.1829 Dec 20 low
*SUP 3: $1.1805/15 Congestion area Dec 14-19
*SUP 4: $1.1775/77 Hourly base Dec 18, Dec 19 low
*COMMENTARY* Found the strength to move through $1.1863-$1.1868 resistance on
Wednesday, the rally heading straight for the next upside barrier, the 76.4%
Fibo retrace level at $1.1903. This and the upper 1% volatility band are now the
potential dampeners to a $1.1940-$1.1961 return. Daily studies remain
enthusiastic, so support from $1.1855-$.1845 initially and $1.1829 below are
anticipated to hold any setbacks and therefore prevent a deeper correction.
CABLE TECHS: $1.3420-$1.3430 Still Proving A Tough Nut To Crack
*RES 4: $1.3492 76.4% Fibo of $1.3550-$1.3303
*RES 3: $1.3460/70 Pivotal highs/lows early December
*RES 2: $1.3421/30 Dec 20 high, hourly congestion Dec 14-15
*RES 1: $1.3395/05 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3383 @0955GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3331/51 Dec 19 low, hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3298/03 76.4% of $1.3221-$1.3549, Dec 15 low
*SUP 3: $1.3240 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.3221/27 Nov 28 low, 61.8% of $1.3027-$1.3550,
*COMMENTARY* The $1.3420-$1.3430 area once again put paid to recovery hopes on
Wednesday and this remains the main near term resistance. That said,
$1.3395-$1.3405 provides an earlier barrier to cross today. Support remains
pretty consistent too, with $1.3351-$1.3331 providing the protection to any
renewed downside activity and in particular on $1.3303-$1.3298 again. Above
$1.3430 and the pivotal $1.3460-70 area rears its head again higher.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Falters Again Below Key Y113.75-Y113.82 Resistance
*RES 4: Y114.81 1.618 swing of Y113.75-Y112.03
*RES 3: Y114.74 Nov 6 high
*RES 2: Y114.22 1% volatility band
*RES 1: Y113.75/82 Dec 12 high, 76.4% of Y114.74-Y110.84
*PRICE: Y113.49 @1010GMT
*SUP 1: Y113.15/20 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y112.84 Dec 15 high, now support
*SUP 3: Y112.65 Congestion area Dec 15-19
*SUP 4: Y112.31 Dec 18 low
*COMMENTARY* Sprang through Y113.37 resistance on Wednesday but once again
enthusiasm waned ahead of key Y113.75-Y113.82 area. Will remain at risk of some
correction of recent gains from Y112.31-Y112.03, all the while rallies are
capped here. In this respect, support moves up to Y113.20-Y113.15 but the more
important level remains at Y112.84. Have to hold above here to retain recent
upside momentum. Successful break above Y113.82 has Y114.22-Y114.81 potential.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Breaks 3 Month Range Top, Y134.85-Y135.26 Next Resistance
*RES 4: Y136.13 2% volatility band
*RES 3: Y135.82 1.618 swing of Y134.38-Y132.05
*RES 2: Y135.26 Equality rise from Y132.05 to Y131.17-Y134.38
*RES 1: Y134.85/88 1% volatility band, intraday high
*PRICE: Y134.84 @1027GMT
*SUP 1: Y134.10/20 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y133.92 Dec 19 high, now support
*SUP 3: Y133.62 Hourly basing area Dec 19
*SUP 4: Y133.00/05 Dec 18 high, initial rally high Dec 19
*COMMENTARY* Nudging above the top of the recent range at Y134.50 but so far
being held back by resistance from around the upper 1% volatility band. Has
travelled a long way from Y132.05 this week, so a near term cap between
Y134.88-Y135.26 would not surprise. In the meantime, support has risen to
Y134.20-Y134.10 but it is currently the Dec 19 high at Y133.92 that provides a
better barometer to direction at this juncture.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Fresh Spurt Higher Has Stg0.8900-Stg0.8916 Resistance
*RES 4: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high
*RES 3: Stg0.8916 Equality rise from 0.8760 to 0.8689-0.8845
*RES 2: Stg0.8910 1% volatility band
*RES 1: Stg0.8900 1.618 swing of Stg0.8846-Stg0.8761
*PRICE: Stg0.8881 @1044GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8840/50 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8829 Dec 20 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8792 Dec 18 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8760 Dec 15 low
*COMMENTARY* Rally has continued, leaving Stg0.8868-Stg0.8880 resistance in its
wake. Next up is the swing target at Stg0.8900, with the upper 1% volatility
band and equality rise target in the slightly higher Stg0.8910-Stg0.8916 area.
These currently present the potential bar to a return towards the Nov 28 high at
Stg0.8981. Support is also on the rise, Stg0.8850-Stg0.8840 initially, loss
would caution, putting pressure back on Wednesday's Stg0.8829 low.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovery Once Again Rejected By $1.2917-$1.2927
*RES 4: $1.3004 1.618 swing of $1.2893-$1.2714
*RES 3: $1.2969/80 Jan 31 low, 1% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.2921/27 Dec 19 high, 50% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061
*RES 1: $1.2885/95 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2829 @1103GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2816 Initial recovery high Dec 14, now support
*SUP 2: $1.2786 Hourly high Dec 15, now support
*SUP 3: $1.2760/65 Minor congestion Dec 14-15
*SUP 4: $1.2714 Dec 14 low
*COMMENTARY* Once again the $1.2917-$1.2927 region has inhibited gains. While
lacking a clear break above here, then the immediate risk will be lower and
renewed pressure on $1.2816 support. Have to currently stay above here to retain
recent upside momentum and avoid some further corrective consequences, beginning
with $1.2786-$1.2760. Meanwhile, $1.2885-$1.2895 provides an initial barrier to
cross ahead of $1.2921-$1.2927.
GOLD TECHS: Broken 2017 Bull Channel Base Now Features As Resistance
*RES 4: $1284.5 76.4% Fibo of $1299.3-$1236.6
*RES 3: $1275.3 61.8% Fibo of $1299.3-$1236.6
*RES 2: $1270.4 Nov 30 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1267.8 Underside broken 2017 bull channel
*PRICE: $1265.7 @1105GMT
*SUP 1: $1247.6 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low
*SUP 3: $1232.6 1.618 swing of $1260.7-$1306.1
*SUP 4: $1230.9 1.618x $1306.1-$1263.8 from $1299.3
*COMMENTARY* A low of $1236.6 last Tuesday, above the next targeted support area
from between $1232.6-$1230.9. The subsequent bounce, aided by some heavily
oversold conditions as a result of this month's decline from $1299.3 and with
the break above $1260.7, now faces resistance from the base of the broken 2017
bull channel at $1267.8. Will need back above here, before any real upside
interest will appear. Nearest support in the meantime, rises to $1247.6.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.