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Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Retreats From 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level
*RES 4: $1.1940 Dec 1 high, 1.618 swing $1.1863-$1.1738
*RES 3: $1.1925 1% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.1902/03 Dec 20 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1717
*RES 1: $1.1870/80 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1859 @0730GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1805/15 Congestion area Dec 14-19
*SUP 2: $1.1775/77 Hourly base Dec 18, Dec 19 low
*SUP 3: $1.1738 Dec 15 low
*SUP 4: $1.1717 Dec 12 low
*COMMENTARY* Found the strength to move through $1.1863-$1.1868 resistance on
Wednesday, the rally heading straight for the next upside barrier, the 76.4%
Fibo retrace level at $1.1903. This and the upper 1% volatility band are now the
potential dampeners to a $1.1940-$1.1961 return. Meanwhile, some near term
overbought conditions are being rectified, so while $1.1870-$1.1880 caps, there
is scope to see a $1.1815-$1.1775 fall.
CABLE TECHS: $1.3420-$1.3430 Still The Resistance To Break
*RES 4: $1.3492 76.4% Fibo of $1.3550-$1.3303
*RES 3: $1.3460/70 Pivotal highs/lows early December
*RES 2: $1.3421/30 Dec 20 high, hourly congestion Dec 14-15
*RES 1: $1.3390/00 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3378 @0733GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3331/45 Dec 19, 21 lows, hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3298/03 76.4% of $1.3221-$1.3549, Dec 15 low
*SUP 3: $1.3240 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.3221/27 Nov 28 low, 61.8% of $1.3027-$1.3550
*COMMENTARY* The $1.3420-$1.3430 area once again put paid to recovery hopes on
Wednesday and this remains the main near term resistance. That said,
$1.3390-$1.3400 now provides an earlier barrier to cross today. Support remains
pretty consistent too, with $1.3345-$1.3331 providing the protection to any
renewed downside activity and in particular on $1.3303-$1.3298 again. Above
$1.3430 and the pivotal $1.3460-70 area rears its head again higher.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Falters Again Below Key Y113.75-Y113.82 Resistance
*RES 4: Y114.81 1.618 swing of Y113.75-Y112.03
*RES 3: Y114.74 Nov 6 high
*RES 2: Y114.17 1% volatility band
*RES 1: Y113.75/82 Dec 12 high, 76.4% of Y114.74-Y110.84
*PRICE: Y113.41 @0750GMT
*SUP 1: Y113.15/20 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y112.84 Dec 15 high, now support
*SUP 3: Y112.65 Congestion area Dec 15-19
*SUP 4: Y112.31 Dec 18 low
*COMMENTARY* Sprang through Y113.37 resistance on Wednesday but once again
enthusiasm waned ahead of key Y113.75-Y113.82 area. Will remain at risk of some
correction of recent gains from Y112.31-Y112.03, all the while rallies are
capped here. In this respect, support moves up to Y113.20-Y113.15 but the more
important level remains at Y112.84. Have to hold above here to retain recent
upside momentum. Successful break above Y113.82 has Y114.17-Y114.81 potential.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.92 Support Remains Pivotal To Near Term Direction
*RES 4: Y135.82 1.618 swing of Y134.38-Y132.05
*RES 3: Y135.26 Equality rise from Y132.05 to Y131.17-Y134.38
*RES 2: Y134.81/88 1% volatility band, Dec 21 high
*RES 1: Y134.55/65 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y134.44 @0755GMT
*SUP 1: Y133.92 Dec 19 high, now support
*SUP 2: Y133.62 Hourly basing area Dec 19
*SUP 3: Y133.00/05 Dec 18 high, initial rally high Dec 19
*SUP 4: Y132.73 Dec 15 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Nudging above the top of the recent range at Y134.50 but so far
held back by the upper 1% volatility band. Has travelled a long way from Y132.05
this week, so a near term cap between Y134.88-Y135.26 would not surprise. In the
meantime, the Dec 19 high at Y133.92 provides support and a barometer to
direction at this juncture. A hold and look to Y134.55-Y134.65 for resistance,
below and correction can extend towards Y133.62-Y133.00 next.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8836-Stg0.8820 Support After Cap Below Stg0.8900
*RES 4: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high
*RES 3: Stg0.8916 Equality from 0.8760 to 0.8689-0.8845, 1% vol
*RES 2: Stg0.8900 1.618 swing of Stg0.8846-Stg0.8761
*RES 1: Stg0.8880 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8858 @0758GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8836 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8820/29 Initial rally high Dec 18, Dec 20 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8792 Dec 18 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8760 Dec 15 low
*COMMENTARY* Rally has continued, leaving Stg0.8868-Stg0.8880 resistance in its
wake. Next up is the swing target at Stg0.8900, with the upper 1% volatility
band and equality rise target in the slightly higher Stg0.8916 area. These
currently present the potential bar to a return towards the Nov 28 high at
Stg0.8981. Support is also on the move, Stg0.8836 initially, below would put
pressure back on Stg0.8829-Stg0.8820. Loss of the latter would caution.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Decline Moves Toward Pivotal $1.2694 Support
*RES 4: $1.2875 Dec 20 high
*RES 3: $1.2840/46 Dec 21 high, hourly high Dec 20
*RES 2: $1.2819 Dec 20 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.2770/80 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2741 @0800GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2694 76.4% Fibo of $1.2624-$1.2921, 1% vol band
*SUP 2: $1.2665/70 Hourly support
*SUP 3: $1.2624 Dec 5 low
*SUP 4: $1.2592 38.2% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921
*COMMENTARY* Once again the $1.2917-$1.2927 region has inhibited gains. While
lacking a clear break above here, then the immediate risk will be lower and a
move below $1.2816 support. Loss here sees recent upside momentum lost and opens
the way for a deeper $1.2694 fall, where next questions are asked of direction.
Meanwhile, $1.2770-80 and then Wednesday's $1.2819 low provide an initial
barrier to any recovery efforts.
GOLD TECHS: Broken 2017 Bull Channel Base Now Features As Resistance
*RES 4: $1284.5 76.4% Fibo of $1299.3-$1236.6
*RES 3: $1275.3 61.8% Fibo of $1299.3-$1236.6
*RES 2: $1270.4 Nov 30 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1267.8 Underside broken 2017 bull channel
*PRICE: $1268.0 @0802GMT
*SUP 1: $1247.6 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low
*SUP 3: $1232.6 1.618 swing of $1260.7-$1306.1
*SUP 4: $1230.9 1.618x $1306.1-$1263.8 from $1299.3
*COMMENTARY* A low of $1236.6 last Tuesday, above the next targeted support area
from between $1232.6-$1230.9. The subsequent bounce, aided by some heavily
oversold conditions as a result of this month's decline from $1299.3 and with
the break above $1260.7, now faces resistance from the base of the broken 2017
bull channel at $1267.8. Will need clearly back above here, before any real
upside interest will appear. Nearest support in the meantime, rises to $1247.6.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.