MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Retreats From 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: $1.1940 Dec 1 high, 1.618 swing $1.1863-$1.1738 

*RES 3: $1.1925 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.1902/03 Dec 20 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1717

*RES 1: $1.1870/80 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1859 @0730GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1805/15 Congestion area Dec 14-19

*SUP 2: $1.1775/77 Hourly base Dec 18, Dec 19 low

*SUP 3: $1.1738 Dec 15 low

*SUP 4: $1.1717 Dec 12 low

*COMMENTARY* Found the strength to move through $1.1863-$1.1868 resistance on

Wednesday, the rally heading straight for the next upside barrier, the 76.4%

Fibo retrace level at $1.1903. This and the upper 1% volatility band are now the

potential dampeners to a $1.1940-$1.1961 return. Meanwhile, some near term

overbought conditions are being rectified, so while $1.1870-$1.1880 caps, there

is scope to see a $1.1815-$1.1775 fall.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3420-$1.3430 Still The Resistance To Break

*RES 4: $1.3492 76.4% Fibo of $1.3550-$1.3303

*RES 3: $1.3460/70 Pivotal highs/lows early December

*RES 2: $1.3421/30 Dec 20 high, hourly congestion Dec 14-15

*RES 1: $1.3390/00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3378 @0733GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3331/45 Dec 19, 21 lows, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3298/03 76.4% of $1.3221-$1.3549, Dec 15 low

*SUP 3: $1.3240 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.3221/27 Nov 28 low, 61.8% of $1.3027-$1.3550 

*COMMENTARY* The $1.3420-$1.3430 area once again put paid to recovery hopes on

Wednesday and this remains the main near term resistance. That said,

$1.3390-$1.3400 now provides an earlier barrier to cross today. Support remains

pretty consistent too, with $1.3345-$1.3331 providing the protection to any

renewed downside activity and in particular on $1.3303-$1.3298 again. Above

$1.3430 and the pivotal $1.3460-70 area rears its head again higher.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Falters Again Below Key Y113.75-Y113.82 Resistance

*RES 4: Y114.81 1.618 swing of Y113.75-Y112.03

*RES 3: Y114.74 Nov 6 high

*RES 2: Y114.17 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y113.75/82 Dec 12 high, 76.4% of Y114.74-Y110.84

*PRICE: Y113.41 @0750GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.15/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y112.84 Dec 15 high, now support

*SUP 3: Y112.65 Congestion area Dec 15-19

*SUP 4: Y112.31 Dec 18 low

*COMMENTARY* Sprang through Y113.37 resistance on Wednesday but once again

enthusiasm waned ahead of key Y113.75-Y113.82 area. Will remain at risk of some

correction of recent gains from Y112.31-Y112.03, all the while rallies are

capped here. In this respect, support moves up to Y113.20-Y113.15 but the more

important level remains at Y112.84. Have to hold above here to retain recent

upside momentum. Successful break above Y113.82 has Y114.17-Y114.81 potential.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.92 Support Remains Pivotal To Near Term Direction

*RES 4: Y135.82 1.618 swing of Y134.38-Y132.05

*RES 3: Y135.26 Equality rise from Y132.05 to Y131.17-Y134.38

*RES 2: Y134.81/88 1% volatility band, Dec 21 high

*RES 1: Y134.55/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y134.44 @0755GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.92 Dec 19 high, now support

*SUP 2: Y133.62 Hourly basing area Dec 19

*SUP 3: Y133.00/05 Dec 18 high, initial rally high Dec 19

*SUP 4: Y132.73 Dec 15 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Nudging above the top of the recent range at Y134.50 but so far

held back by the upper 1% volatility band. Has travelled a long way from Y132.05

this week, so a near term cap between Y134.88-Y135.26 would not surprise. In the

meantime, the Dec 19 high at Y133.92 provides support and a barometer to

direction at this juncture. A hold and look to Y134.55-Y134.65 for resistance,

below and correction can extend towards Y133.62-Y133.00 next.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8836-Stg0.8820 Support After Cap Below Stg0.8900

*RES 4: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8916 Equality from 0.8760 to 0.8689-0.8845, 1% vol

*RES 2: Stg0.8900 1.618 swing of Stg0.8846-Stg0.8761

*RES 1: Stg0.8880 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8858 @0758GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8836 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8820/29 Initial rally high Dec 18, Dec 20 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8792 Dec 18 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8760 Dec 15 low

*COMMENTARY* Rally has continued, leaving Stg0.8868-Stg0.8880 resistance in its

wake. Next up is the swing target at Stg0.8900, with the upper 1% volatility

band and equality rise target in the slightly higher Stg0.8916 area. These

currently present the potential bar to a return towards the Nov 28 high at

Stg0.8981. Support is also on the move, Stg0.8836 initially, below would put

pressure back on Stg0.8829-Stg0.8820. Loss of the latter would caution.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Decline Moves Toward Pivotal $1.2694 Support

*RES 4: $1.2875 Dec 20 high

*RES 3: $1.2840/46 Dec 21 high, hourly high Dec 20

*RES 2: $1.2819 Dec 20 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2770/80 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2741 @0800GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2694 76.4% Fibo of $1.2624-$1.2921, 1% vol band

*SUP 2: $1.2665/70 Hourly support

*SUP 3: $1.2624 Dec 5 low

*SUP 4: $1.2592 38.2% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921

*COMMENTARY* Once again the $1.2917-$1.2927 region has inhibited gains. While

lacking a clear break above here, then the immediate risk will be lower and a

move below $1.2816 support. Loss here sees recent upside momentum lost and opens

the way for a deeper $1.2694 fall, where next questions are asked of direction.

Meanwhile, $1.2770-80 and then Wednesday's $1.2819 low provide an initial

barrier to any recovery efforts.

GOLD TECHS: Broken 2017 Bull Channel Base Now Features As Resistance

*RES 4: $1284.5 76.4% Fibo of $1299.3-$1236.6

*RES 3: $1275.3 61.8% Fibo of $1299.3-$1236.6

*RES 2: $1270.4 Nov 30 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1267.8 Underside broken 2017 bull channel

*PRICE: $1268.0 @0802GMT

*SUP 1: $1247.6 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low

*SUP 3: $1232.6 1.618 swing of $1260.7-$1306.1

*SUP 4: $1230.9 1.618x $1306.1-$1263.8 from $1299.3

*COMMENTARY* A low of $1236.6 last Tuesday, above the next targeted support area

from between $1232.6-$1230.9. The subsequent bounce, aided by some heavily

oversold conditions as a result of this month's decline from $1299.3 and with

the break above $1260.7, now faces resistance from the base of the broken 2017

bull channel at $1267.8. Will need clearly back above here, before any real

upside interest will appear. Nearest support in the meantime, rises to $1247.6.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]