MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Continues Higher, Testing Resolve Of 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2167 50% Fibo of $1.3994-$1.0340

*RES 3: $1.2130 2 month bull channel top projection

*RES 2: $1.2093 Sep 8 high

*RES 1: $1.2055 1% volatility band

*PRICE: $1.2050 @0943GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2005/15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1993 Hourly base Dec 29

*SUP 3: $1.1959 Dec 28 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.1937 Dec 29 low

*COMMENTARY* The rally now testing the resolve of the upper 1% volatility band,

as we move through resistance from the Sep 20 high at $1.2034 and the July 2012

low at $1.2047. Clearance here and the Sep 8 high at $1.2093 and the 2 month

bull channel projection at $1.2130 are the next potential targets. As a result,

support moves up to $1.2015-$1.1993, only back below the latter will currently

spoil near term upside momentum and suggest scope for some correction.

CABLE TECHS: Rally Reaches $1.3563-$1.3569 Resistance Area

*RES 4: $1.3692 3 month bull channel top, 2% vol band

*RES 3: $1.3659 Sep 20 high

*RES 2: $1.3596 Sep 22 high

*RES 1: $1.3563/69 1% vol, 1.618 swing of $1.3467-$1.3302

*PRICE: $1.3563 @0955GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3510/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3495 Hourly base Dec 29

*SUP 3: $1.3457/67 Dec 28, Dec 14 highs, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3421/27 Dec 20 high, hourly base Dec 28

*COMMENTARY* The rally has now reached the upper 1% volatility band, at $1.3563

by time today, as we approach $1.3569, the swing target of the recent

$1.3467-$1.3302 pullback. Any higher and minor resistance from the Sep 22 high

at $1.3596, then stands in the way of a return to last year's $1.3659 peak. In

the interim, support moves up to $1.3520-$1.3510, with a loss of $1.3495

currently required to set in motion any correction of note.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Loses Key Near Term Support Between Y112.41-Y112.31

*RES 4: Y113.38 Dec 27 high

*RES 3: Y113.12 Dec 26 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y112.99 Hourly high Dec 28

*RES 1: Y112.79 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y112.26 @1007GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y111.95/03 61.8% of Y110.84-Y113.75, Dec 15 low

*SUP 3: Y111.53 76.4% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75

*SUP 4: Y111.40 Dec 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Has been susceptible to a pullback ever since the rally faltered at

Y113.64 on Dec 21, ahead of stronger resistance between Y113.75-Y113.82. Today's

fall has now broken below key near term support from between Y112.41-Y112.31.

This now sees minor support from Y112.20, below would caution and expose the

downside further, Y112.03-Y111.95 then the protection against a Y111.53 fall. In

the meantime, Y112.79-Y112.99 provides resistance to any recovery.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Now Has Resistance Between Y135.82-Y136.11

*RES 4: Y136.97/99 October 2015 highs

*RES 3: Y136.41 1.618 swing of Y134.41-Y131.17

*RES 2: Y136.11 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y135.82 1.618 swing of Y134.38-Y132.05

*PRICE: Y135.45 @1025GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y134.93/98 Jan 1 low, Dec 27, Dec 28 highs

*SUP 3: Y134.77 Hourly congestion Dec 27-29

*SUP 4: Y134.46 Dec 28 low

*COMMENTARY* Continues above the top of the recent range at Y134.46-Y134.50 but

so far held back by the swing target at Y135.82 and the upper 1% volatility

band, at the higher Y136.11 level. Currently seeing some near term overbought

conditions with support seen from Y135.10 and then more importantly between

Y134.98-Y134.93. Loss of the latter would disappoint now and threaten a deeper

correction, of gains seen from the Dec 22 low at Y133.91.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Moves Toward Stg0.8916-Stg0.8925 Resistance

*RES 4: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8964 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.8925 1.618 swing of Stg0.8891-Stg0.8836

*RES 1: Stg0.8916 Equality rise from 0.8760 to 0.8689-0.8845

*PRICE: Stg0.8911 @1032GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8870/80 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8854 Dec 27 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8836 Dec 22 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8792 Dec 18 low

*COMMENTARY* Rally has moved above the initial swing target at Stg0.8900 but has

so far faltered around the equality rise target in the slightly higher Stg0.8916

area. This and the second swing target at Stg0.8925, currently present the

potential bar to a return towards the Nov 28 high at Stg0.8981. Support now from

the Stg0.8880-Stg0.8870 area, this and the Dec 27 low at Stg0.8854 protect

against a deeper setback, the Dec 22 low at Stg0.8836 then important below.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Decline Moves Toward $1.2491-$1.2433 Support

*RES 4: $1.2698/99 Dec 22, Dec 21 lows, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2662/69 Hourly recovery highs Dec 27

*RES 2: $1.2628 Dec 28 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2590 Dec 29 high

*PRICE: $1.2532 @1037GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2515 Dec 29 low

*SUP 2: $1.2491 50% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921

*SUP 3: $1.2433 Oct 12 low

*SUP 4: $1.2404 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Having lost pivotal $1.2694 support, has continued to fall at the

end of last month. A low of $1.2515 seen so far, as we reach towards what looks

like decent support that is currently situated between $1.2491-$1.2433. This

area ahead of the lower 2% volatility band, a known inhibitor of both losses and

gains. A small rally seen at the end of the year but so far lacking any real

power, back above $1.2628 would generate some interest.

GOLD TECHS: Rally Challenging $1311.4-$1313.8 Resistance

*RES 4: $1357.7 Sep 4 high

*RES 3: $1334.8 Sep 13high

*RES 2: $1329.1 76.4% Fibo of $1357.7-$1236.6

*RES 1: $1313.8 Sep 26 high

*PRICE: $1312.5 @1048GMT

*SUP 1: $1295.0 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1284.0 Dec 26 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1276.3 Dec 22 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1265.0 Dec 22 low

*COMMENTARY* The move above $1267.8 triggered immediate upside interest, further

aided by the recovery through the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5. This

makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from last September look like a three wave

correction. Next challenge is likely to come from between the 61.8% Fibo level

at $1311.4 and the Sep 26 high at $1313.8. Above and look to $1329.1 next.

Meanwhile, support from $1295.0 protects against any corrective potential.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]