MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Pauses For Breath Around Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2167 50% Fibo of $1.3994-$1.0340

*RES 3: $1.2136 2 month bull channel top projection

*RES 2: $1.2093 Sep 8 high

*RES 1: $1.2081 Jan 2 high

*PRICE: $1.2037 @0921GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2015/25 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1993 Hourly base Dec 29

*SUP 3: $1.1937 Dec 29 low

*SUP 4: $1.1900/10 Dec 25, Dec 27 highs, now support

*COMMENTARY* The rally straddled the upper 1% volatility band on Tuesday, at

$1.2054 by time today, as we strive to emulate the Sep 8 peak at $1.2093. A high

of $1.2081, before hitting near term overbought conditions. As a result, support

moves up to $1.2025-$1.2015 but only back below $1.1993 will currently spoil

near term upside momentum and suggest scope for some deeper correction. Through

$1.2093 and the channel projection at $1.2136, then Fibo level at $1.2167.

CABLE TECHS: Rally Still Has An Eye On Last Year's High

*RES 4: $1.3724 2% volatility band 

*RES 3: $1.3698 3 month bull channel top projection

*RES 2: $1.3659 Sep 20 high

*RES 1: $1.3613 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.3587 @0935GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3540/44 Hourly support, Dec 29 high

*SUP 2: $1.3522 Initial rally high Jan 1, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3495 Hourly base Dec 29

*SUP 4: $1.3457/67 Dec 28, Dec 14 highs, now support

*COMMENTARY* The rally surpassed the upper 1% volatility band on Tuesday, at

$1.3589 by time today, a high of $1.3613 so far, as we line up a potential

challenge to last year's $1.3659 peak. In the interim, support moves up to

$1.3544-$1.3522, loss of the latter would caution but currently requiring a loss

of the lower $1.3495 level, before belief in any deeper correction will surface.

Above $1.3659 and the 3 month bull channel top at $1.3698 is next attraction.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Previous Y112.03 Low Holds The Fall So Far

*RES 4: Y113.38 Dec 27 high

*RES 3: Y113.12 Dec 26 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y112.79 Jan 2 high

*RES 1: Y112.50/60 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y112.32 @0943GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.03/06 Dec 15, Jan 2 lows

*SUP 2: Y111.80/95 1% vol band, 61.8% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75

*SUP 3: Y111.53 76.4% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75

*SUP 4: Y111.40 Dec 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Has been susceptible to a pullback ever since the rally faltered at

Y113.64 on Dec 21, ahead of stronger resistance situated between

Y113.75-Y113.82. Yesterday's fall broke back below key near term support from

between Y112.41-Y112.31. This now cautions and exposes the downside further,

Y112.03-Y111.95 then the protection against a Y111.53 fall. In the meantime,

Y112.50-Y112.60 provides immediate resistance, Y112.79 higher.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Falters Ahead Of Swing Target At Y135.82

*RES 4: Y136.41 1.618 swing of Y134.41-Y131.17

*RES 3: Y136.17 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y135.82 1.618 swing of Y134.38-Y132.05

*RES 1: Y135.64 Jan 2 high

*PRICE: Y135.24 @0947GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.93/98 Jan 1 low, Dec 27, Dec 28 highs

*SUP 2: Y134.77 Hourly congestion Dec 27-29

*SUP 3: Y134.46 Dec 28 low

*SUP 4: Y134.20 Dec 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Continues above the top of the recent range at Y134.46-Y134.50 a

high of Y135.64 so far but held back below the swing target at Y135.82 and the

upper 1% volatility band, at the higher Y136.17 level. Currently seeing some

near term overbought conditions unwind with support seen importantly from

between Y134.98-Y134.93. Loss of the latter would disappoint now and threaten a

deeper correction of gains seen from the Dec 22 low at Y133.91.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Falters Within Stg0.8916-Stg0.8925 Resistance Area

*RES 4: Stg0.8925 1.618 swing of Stg0.8891-Stg0.8836

*RES 3: Stg0.8916/18 Equality rise from 0.8760, Jan 2 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8900 Hourly high Jan 2

*RES 1: Stg0.8875/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8862 @0958GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8848 Intraday low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8836 Dec 22 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8792 Dec 18 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8761 Dec 14 low

*COMMENTARY* Rally has moved above the initial swing target at Stg0.8900 but has

so far faltered around the equality rise target in the slightly higher Stg0.8916

area. This and a second swing target at Stg0.8925, currently present the

potential bar to a return towards the Nov 28 high at Stg0.8981. Support from the

Stg0.8880-Stg0.8870 area has since been lost, leaving the downside vulnerable to

a deeper setback and correction of recent gains from last month's Stg0.8689 low.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Decline Moves Toward Top Of $1.2491-$1.2433 Support

*RES 4: $1.2662/69 Hourly recovery highs Dec 27

*RES 3: $1.2628 Dec 28 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2590 Dec 29 high

*RES 1: $1.2566/70 Jan 2 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2523 @1006GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2491/00 50% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921, intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.2433 Oct 12 low

*SUP 3: $1.2390 61.8% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921

*SUP 4: $1.2372 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Having lost pivotal $1.2694 support, continued to fall at the end

of last month. Having fallen below last week's $1.2515 low, we now reach towards

what looks like decent support, currently situated between $1.2491-$1.2433. This

ahead of Fibo support at $1.2390 and then the lower 2% volatility band, a known

inhibitor of both losses and gains. In the meantime, resistance from firstly

$1.2566-70 and then $1.2590 currently prevent any recovery potential.

GOLD TECHS: $1302.2 Support Protects Against Any Corrective Action

*RES 4: $1357.7 Sep 4 high

*RES 3: $1334.8 Sep 13 high

*RES 2: $1329.1 76.4% Fibo of $1357.7-$1236.6

*RES 1: $1321.6 Jan 2 high

*PRICE: $1314.7 @1020GMT

*SUP 1: $1302.2 Jan 1 low

*SUP 2: $1289.2 Dec 27 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1276.3 Dec 22 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1268.0 Dec 20 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* The move above $1267.8 triggered immediate upside interest, further

aided by the recovery through the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5. This

makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from last September look like a three wave

correction. Today we have broken through $1311.4-$1313.8 resistance. A sustained

hold above and look to $1329.1 as the next target. Meanwhile, support from

$1302.2 protects against any corrective potential.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]