MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Still Faces Decent Resistance From $1.2093-$1.2098

*RES 4: $1.2167 50% Fibo of $1.3994-$1.0340

*RES 3: $1.2149 2 month channel top projection

*RES 2: $1.2130 1.618 swing of $1.2081-$1.2001

*RES 1: $1.2089/98 Jan 4, Sep 8 highs, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: $1.2056 @0853GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2025/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1993/01 Hourly base Dec 29, Jan 3 low

*SUP 3: $1.1937 Dec 29 low

*SUP 4: $1.1902/10 Dec 20, Dec 27 highs, now support

*COMMENTARY* Wednesday's pullback stayed above key near term support from

$1.1993. While intact, then the immediate momentum still remains with the

topside. In this respect, there is still resistance from between the Sep 8 high

at $1.2093 and the upper 1% volatility band at the slightly higher $1.2098 to

consider, before the way becomes clear for a higher $1.2130-$1.2167 rise.

Initial support from $1.2035-$1.2025, loss will caution in the near term.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3585-$1.3616 The Bar To Fresh Upside Activity

*RES 4: $1.3710 3 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: $1.3659 Sep 20 high

*RES 2: $1.3613/16 Jan 3 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.3577/85 Intraday high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3539 @0909GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3515/25 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3494/95 Jan 3 low, hourly base Dec 29

*SUP 3: $1.3457/67 Dec 28, Dec 14 highs, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3419/21 Dec 18, Dec 20 highs, now support

*COMMENTARY* Support found around $1.3495 on Wednesday, so far keeping the focus

away from the Dec 14 high at $1.3467, above which any setback should really hold

now, if near term upside momentum is to be retained. In this respect, attention

now switches back to $1.3585 initially, the upper 1% volatility band, which

could well feature higher, now rises to join resistance around Wednesday's

$1.3613 high. This then the bar to a return to last year's $1.3659 peak.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Now Faces Congested Resistance Between Y113.27-Y113.82

*RES 4: Y113.75/82 Dec 12 high, 76.4% of Y114.74-Y110.84

*RES 3: Y113.64 Dec 21 high

*RES 2: Y113.38 Dec 27 high

*RES 1: Y113.27 76.4% Fibo of Y113.64-Y112.06

*PRICE: Y113.21 @0925GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.71/85 Hourly base Jan 4, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y112.35/40 Congestion area Jan 2-3

*SUP 3: Y111.95/03 61.8% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75, Dec 15 low

*SUP 4: Y111.53 76.4% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75

*COMMENTARY* Further upside interest has been generated by today's sustained

break above Y112.79-Y112.84. Back above here and the 76.4% Fibo retrace at

Y113.27 is the first of a congested set of resistance between here and Y113.82.

Not until we can clear the latter, will the topside breathe more easily. Nearest

support now seen from between Y112.85-Y112.71, loss would put pressure on

Y112.40-Y112.35, this the protection against a Y111.95-Y111.53 fall.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Still Respecting Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Y137.92 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Y137.47 September 2015 high

*RES 2: Y136.99 October 2015 high

*RES 1: Y136.57 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Y136.41 @0949GMT

*SUP 1: Y136.00 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y135.64 Jan 2 high, now support

*SUP 3: Y135.44/46 Hourly highs Jan 4, now support

*SUP 4: Y135.16 Initial recovery high Jan 3, now support

*COMMENTARY* Overcame a dip to Y134.80 on Wednesday before launching into a

fresh rally which has since broken above resistance from both swing targets at

Y135.82 and then Y136.41. Once again the rise has respected the upper 1%

volatility band, at Y136.57 by time today. Will currently need to sustain a

break above here, before any further upside acceleration can follow. Meanwhile,

Y136.00 provides protection against a correction of gains from Y134.80.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Swing Target At Stg0.8925 The Next Barrier To Cross

*RES 4: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8970 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.8951 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.9032-Stg0.8689

*RES 1: Stg0.8925 1.618 swing of Stg0.8891-Stg0.8836

*PRICE: Stg0.8902 @0952GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8880/90 Jan 4 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8865 Initial recovery high Jan 3, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8848 Jan 3 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8836 Dec 22 low

*COMMENTARY* Rally moved above the initial swing target at Stg0.8900 earlier in

the week but was curtailed around the equality rise target in the slightly

higher Stg0.8916 area. This and a second swing target at Stg0.8925, present the

potential bar to a return towards Stg0.8951 Fibo resistance and the Nov 28 high

at Stg0.8981. In the meantime, nearest support has risen to Stg0.8890-Stg0.8880

but very recent upside momentum intact while above Stg0.8865.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Decline Moves Within $1.2491-$1.2433 Support Range

*RES 4: $1.2698/99 Dec 22, Dec 21 lows, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2662/69 Hourly recovery highs Dec 27

*RES 2: $1.2590 Dec 29 high

*RES 1: $1.2545/56 Hourly resistance, Jan 4 high

*PRICE: $1.2505 @1002GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2484 Jan 4, intraday lows

*SUP 2: $1.2454 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.2433 Oct 12 low

*SUP 4: $1.2390 61.8% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921

*COMMENTARY* Having lost pivotal $1.2694 support, continued to fall at the end

of last month. Having since dropped below last week's $1.2515 low, we now reach

towards what looks like decent support, situated between $1.2491-$1.2433. An

area that also includes the lower 1% volatility band at $1.2454 by time today.

This ahead of Fibo support at $1.2390. In the meantime, resistance from firstly

$1.2545-$1.2456 and then $1.2590 currently prevent any recovery potential.

GOLD TECHS: Rally Finally Nears Fibo Resistance At $1329.1

*RES 4: $1357.7 Sep 4 high

*RES 3: $1334.8 Sep 13 high

*RES 2: $1329.1 76.4% Fibo of $1357.7-$1236.6

*RES 1: $1326.1 Jan 4 high

*PRICE: $1317.3 @1007GMT

*SUP 1: $1305.9 Jan 4 low

*SUP 2: $1289.2 Dec 27 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1281.4 Dec 27 low

*SUP 4: $1276.3 Dec 22 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* The move above $1267.8 triggered immediate upside interest, further

aided by the recovery through the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5. This

makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from last September look like a three wave

correction. We have subsequently broken through $1311.4-$1313.8 resistance. A

sustained hold above and look to $1329.1 as the next target. Meanwhile, support

from $1305.9 now protects against any corrective potential.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]