MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Correcting After Rally Reaches Upper 2% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2376 1.618x $1.1554-$1.1961 from $1.1717

*RES 3: $1.2329 Oct 2008 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2311 2% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.2297 Jan 15 high

*PRICE: $1.2237 @0903GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2205/15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2145/55 Hourly low/high Jan 12

*SUP 3: $1.2089/93 Jan 4, Sep 8 lows, now resistance

*SUP 4: $1.2059 Jan 11 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* The rally peaked at $1.2297 on Monday, basically in line with a

test to the upper 2% volatility band. This has moved slightly higher by time

today to $1.2311. Currently correcting some near term overbought conditions,

first clues likely to come from the $1.2215-$1.2205 area. Loss here will caution

and suggest some deeper correction of gains from last week's $1.1916 low is

required, beginning with $1.2155-$1.2145. 

CABLE TECHS: $1.3825-$1.3885 Remains Next Upside Target Area

*RES 4: $1.3883/85 38.2% $1.7192-$1.1838,50% $1.5932-$1.1838

*RES 3: $1.3853 2 month bull channel top projection

*RES 2: $1.3836 Feb 2016 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.3825 Equality rise from $1.3302 to $1.3017-$1.3550

*PRICE: $1.3786 @0921GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3750/60 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3725/30 Hourly base Jan 12, Jan 15 low

*SUP 3: $1.3677 Hourly low Jan 12

*SUP 4: $1.3659 Sep 20 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Reached $1.3820 on Monday, just shy of the equality rise target at

$1.3825, before giving up some ground. This is helping to reduce the overbought

state of hourly conditions, with nearest support still located between

$1.3760-$1.3750. Below and the $1.3730-$1.3725 area fends off what could be a

deeper correction of gains seen from last week's $1.3458 base. Above $1.3825 and

main target remains 1.3883-$1.3885, where the 2% volatility band also resides.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Pressure Will Continue While Y111.19-Y111.45 Caps Rallies

*RES 4: Y111.70 Jan 12 high

*RES 3: Y111.40/45 Congestion area Jan 10-12

*RES 2: Y111.19 Jan 15 high

*RES 1: Y110.98 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y110.69 @0932GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.33/40 Jan 15 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y110.15 61.8% Fibo of Y107.32-Y114.74

*SUP 3: Y109.79 Equality fall from Y113.69 to Y114.74-Y110.84

*SUP 4: Y109.73/76 2% vol band, 11 week bear channel base

*COMMENTARY* Monday's fall extended slightly below hourly support at Y110.40, a

low of Y110.33 before bouncing to correct some near term oversold conditions.

While this remains below Y111.19 initially and more importantly Y111.40-45, then

this remains just corrective. Below Y110.33 and the 61.8% Fibo retrace at

Y110.15 is the next protection against a deeper Y109.93-Y109.73 fall. The latter

the current level of the lower 2% volatility band.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Backs Away From Congested Resistance Within The Y136's

*RES 4: Y136.85 4 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: Y136.64 Jan 5 high

*RES 2: Y136.49 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y136.10 Jan 15 high

*PRICE: Y135.39 @0939GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.15/25 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y134.83/93 Hourly base Jan 12, 38.2% Y133.05-Y136.10

*SUP 3: Y134.58 Hourly low Jan 12

*SUP 4: Y134.16 Initial high Jan 12, now support

*COMMENTARY* Found support from the dual Y133.05-Y133.10 area last Thursday.

Mainly due to a bounce from the 5 month rising support line. The subsequent

rally back through Y134.20-Y134.56 began a correction of recent losses from the

Jan 5 high at Y136.64, Monday's rise through Y135.79 once again sees the topside

focus on still congested resistance from between Y136.10-Y136.85. Will need to

escape the latter before real confidence will grow. Support Y135.15-Y134.83.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8925-Stg0.8930 Still The Resistance To Break 

*RES 4: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8951/55 76.4% of 0.9032-0.8689, 1% vol band

*RES 2: Stg0.8925/30 Jan 4, Jan 12 highs

*RES 1: Stg0.8910/13 Jan 15, Jan 11 highs

*PRICE: Stg0.8881 @0943GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8855/60 Hourly congestion Jan 10-11

*SUP 2: Stg0.8840 Hourly low Jan 10

*SUP 3: Stg0.8827 Initial recovery high Jan 10, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8809 Jan 9 low

*COMMENTARY* Having held into the key Stg0.8805-Stg0.8810 support area last

week, began a recovery which saw an extension through Stg0.8873-Stg0.8900. Once

again ran into resistance from our old friend Stg0.8925-Stg0.8930 and it is

through here that is still required before thoughts can turn to the higher

Stg0.8951-Stg0.8981 region. Support comes from Stg0.8860-Stg0.8855 with

Stg0.8840 currently still of more importance lower.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2447-$1.2472 Provides Resistance To Recovery

*RES 4: $1.2590/91 Dec 29, Jan 11 highs

*RES 3: $1.2556 Jan 12 high

*RES 2: $1.2520 Hourly congestion Jan 11-12

*RES 1: $1.2447/72 Hourly resistance, Jan 15 high

*PRICE: $1.2427 @0955GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2403/11 Jan 15 low, 76.4% of $1.2355-$1.2591

*SUP 2: $1.2377 Hourly support

*SUP 3: $1.2345/55 1% volatility band, Jan 5 low

*SUP 4: $1.2313 Previously broken 4 week resistance line

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to fall since the recovery was halted at $1.2591 last

week. The subsequent drop tested the resolve of support from the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at $1.2411 on Monday. A low of $1.2403 seen before some near term

oversold conditions prompted a bounce. Look to $1.2447-$1.2472 for initial

resistance, above needed before the chance of a higher $1.2520-$1.2556 bounce.

Below $1.2403 and anticipate pressure back on $1.2377-$1.2345.

GOLD TECHS: Focus Now On Last September's $1357.7 High

*RES 4: $1375.4 Jul 8 2016 high

*RES 3: $1367.3 Aug 1 high

*RES 2: $1357.7 Sep 4 high

*RES 1: $1344.8 Jan 15 high

*PRICE: $1334.3 @1000GMT

*SUP 1: $1330.9 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1326.1 Jan 4 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1315.8 Jan 11 low

*SUP 4: $1308.3 Jan 10 low

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave  correction. We have comfortably held

above $1305.9 support over the last couple of weeks. Last Friday's break through

$1334.8-$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we make our way back towards the Sep 4

high at $1357.7. Support $1330.9-$1326.1 keeps immediate bias higher.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]