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Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Consolidating Above 38.2% Fibo Support At $1.2165
*RES 4: $1.2421 1.618 swing of $1.2323-$1.2165
*RES 3: $1.2376 1.618x $1.1554-$1.1961 from $1.1717
*RES 2: $1.2323/49 Jan 17 high, 3 month bull channel proj'n
*RES 1: $1.2295 Jan 19 high
*PRICE: $1.2244 @0953GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2195/15 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2165 Jan 17 low, hourly high/low Jan 12
*SUP 3: $1.2089/93 Jan 4, Sep 8 highs, now support
*SUP 4: $1.2059/67 Jan 11 high, initial high Jan 12
*COMMENTARY* After finding some support from the 38.2% Fibo retrace at $1.2165
last week, is now consolidating above $1.2215-$1.2195. While these supports
survive, there is scope to see another attempt higher, $1.2295 currently in the
way of fresh gains, with the 3 month bull channel top at $1.2349 today, ahead of
the projection target at $1.2376 and the swing target of the recent
consolidation range, at $1.2421. Loss of $1.2165 will caution however.
CABLE TECHS: Continues Gains But Still Below Channel Top & 2% Vol Band
*RES 4: $1.4067 2% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.4050 1.618 swing of $1.3659-$1.3027
*RES 2: $1.4033 13 month bull channel top projection
*RES 1: $1.4004 Jan 22 high
*PRICE: $1.3947 @1007GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3920 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3896 Initial recovery high Jan 19, now support
*SUP 3: $1.3875 Congestion area Jan 19-22
*SUP 4: $1.3839 Jan 19 low
*COMMENTARY* A fresh high of $1.4004 seen on Monday, before giving way to some
near term overbought conditions. Look to $1.3920 for some initial support and
protection against a further $1.3896-$1.3875 fall. Ideally hold above the latter
to fend off potential for a much bigger correction to take place. Above $1.4004
and still have the 13 month bull channel top at $1.4033 to negotiate, ahead of
the swing target at $1.4050 and 2% volatility band at $1.4067.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.50 Support Protects Against Fresh Downside Interest
*RES 4: Y112.06/17 Jan 2 low, 61.8% of Y113.39-Y110.19
*RES 3: Y111.70/88 Jan 12, Jan 11 highs
*RES 2: Y111.48 Jan 18 high
*RES 1: Y111.23/25 Jan 22 high, hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y110.64 @1030GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.49/50 Jan 19 low, hourly support
*SUP 2: Y110.15/19 61.8% of Y107.32-Y114.74, Jan 17 low
*SUP 3: Y109.79 Equality fall from Y113.69 to Y114.74-Y110.84
*SUP 4: Y109.39 1.618 swing of Y110.19-Y111.48
*COMMENTARY* Has found support from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Y110.15, the
subsequent rally correcting some of the recent losses from the month's Y113.39
high. In this respect, look to Y111.25-Y111.48 for initial resistance,
Y111.70-Y111.88 then the brake to more important Y112.06-Y112.17 levels. As a
consequence, support rises to Y110.50, loss of the latter would caution now and
put pressure back on the downside.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Range Trading Continues Above Y135.19-Y134.98 Support
*RES 4: Y137.00 4 month bull channel top projection
*RES 3: Y136.79 1.618 swing of Y136.10-Y134.98
*RES 2: Y136.64 Jan 5 high, 1% volatility band
*RES 1: Y136.31 Jan 18 high
*PRICE: Y135.50 @1036GMT
*SUP 1: Y135.19 Jan 19 low
*SUP 2: Y134.98/02 Jan 16, Jan 15 lows
*SUP 3: Y134.58 Hourly low Jan 12
*SUP 4: Y134.35 Jan 11 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Currently range trading above support from Y135.19-Y134.98. Need to
hold the latter, if a deeper corrective pullback is to be avoided. Within the
range, the Y136.00 area is now the bar to a fresh attempt higher, which still
sees congested resistance from between Y136.31-Y137.00, as having the potential
to put a dampener on any recovery. Will need to escape the latter before real
belief in the topside will appear.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8747-Stg0.8737 The Next Support Of Note
*RES 4: Stg0.8862 Jan 16 low, now resistance
*RES 3: Stg0.8846 Jan 19 high
*RES 2: Stg0.8825 Hourly congestion Jan 18-19
*RES 1: Stg0.8802/05 Jan 18 low, hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8782 @1048GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8762 Intraday low
*SUP 2: Stg0.8744/47 76.4% Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925, 1% vol band
*SUP 3: Stg0.8737 1.618 swing of Stg0.8809-Stg0.8925
*SUP 4: Stg0.8689 Dec 8 low
*COMMENTARY* The fallout from this month's failure at Stg0.8925 continues.
Monday seeing the loss of Stg0.8809-Stg0.8802 support. This the catalyst for a
further fall through the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8779. A low of
Stg0.8762 so far on the day, ahead of what looks likely to be stronger support
showing from between Stg0.8747-Stg0.8737. As a consequence, nearest resistance
falls to Stg0.8802-Stg0.8805 but above Stg0.8725 needed for any real lift.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Consolidation Continues Below $1.2509-$1.2556
*RES 4: $1.2590/91 Dec 29, Jan 11 highs
*RES 3: $1.2556 Jan 12 high
*RES 2: $1.2542 Jan 17 high
*RES 1: $1.2509 Jan 19 high
*PRICE: $1.2479 @1051GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2425/35 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2393/00 Jan 16, Jan 18 lows
*SUP 3: $1.2355 Jan 5 low
*SUP 4: $1.2340 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Consolidation continues as we try to correct losses from the Jan 11
high at $1.2591. Currently has $1.2509-$1.2556 in the way of another challenge
to that high. As a result, support also rises, $1.2435-$1.2425 offering initial
protection, $1.2400-$1.2393 providing a more important area below. Have to stay
above the latter or bias will again return lower, leaving the Jan 5 low at
$1.2355 vulnerable again, ahead of the 1% volatility band at $1.2340.
GOLD TECHS: $1340.0 Stands In The Way Of Fresh Upside Potential
*RES 4: $1367.3 Aug 1 high
*RES 3: $1357.7 Sep 4 high
*RES 2: $1344.8 Jan 15 high
*RES 1: $1340.0 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1336.3 @1054GMT
*SUP 1: $1322.2 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1315.8 Jan 11 low
*SUP 3: $1308.3 Jan 10 low
*SUP 4: $1303.5 38.2% Fibo of $1236.6-$1344.8
*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the
upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from
last September look like a three wave correction. We have held above $1305.9
support over the last few weeks. The subsequent break through $1337.1 the next
upside boost, as we make our way back towards the Sep 4 high at $1357.7.
Currently correcting some overbought conditions, support $1322.2-$1315.8.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.