MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Consolidating Above 38.2% Fibo Support At $1.2165

*RES 4: $1.2421 1.618 swing of $1.2323-$1.2165

*RES 3: $1.2376 1.618x $1.1554-$1.1961 from $1.1717

*RES 2: $1.2323/49 Jan 17 high, 3 month bull channel proj'n

*RES 1: $1.2295 Jan 19 high

*PRICE: $1.2244 @0953GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2195/15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2165 Jan 17 low, hourly high/low Jan 12

*SUP 3: $1.2089/93 Jan 4, Sep 8 highs, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2059/67 Jan 11 high, initial high Jan 12

*COMMENTARY* After finding some support from the 38.2% Fibo retrace at $1.2165

last week, is now consolidating above $1.2215-$1.2195. While these supports

survive, there is scope to see another attempt higher, $1.2295 currently in the

way of fresh gains, with the 3 month bull channel top at $1.2349 today, ahead of

the projection target at $1.2376 and the swing target of the recent

consolidation range, at $1.2421. Loss of $1.2165 will caution however.

CABLE TECHS: Continues Gains But Still Below Channel Top & 2% Vol Band

*RES 4: $1.4067 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.4050 1.618 swing of $1.3659-$1.3027

*RES 2: $1.4033 13 month bull channel top projection

*RES 1: $1.4004 Jan 22 high

*PRICE: $1.3947 @1007GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3920 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3896 Initial recovery high Jan 19, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3875 Congestion area Jan 19-22

*SUP 4: $1.3839 Jan 19 low

*COMMENTARY* A fresh high of $1.4004 seen on Monday, before giving way to some

near term overbought conditions. Look to $1.3920 for some initial support and

protection against a further $1.3896-$1.3875 fall. Ideally hold above the latter

to fend off potential for a much bigger correction to take place. Above $1.4004

and still have the 13 month bull channel top at $1.4033 to negotiate, ahead of

the swing target at $1.4050 and 2% volatility band at $1.4067.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y110.50 Support Protects Against Fresh Downside Interest

*RES 4: Y112.06/17 Jan 2 low, 61.8% of Y113.39-Y110.19

*RES 3: Y111.70/88 Jan 12, Jan 11 highs

*RES 2: Y111.48 Jan 18 high

*RES 1: Y111.23/25 Jan 22 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y110.64 @1030GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.49/50 Jan 19 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y110.15/19 61.8% of Y107.32-Y114.74, Jan 17 low

*SUP 3: Y109.79 Equality fall from Y113.69 to Y114.74-Y110.84

*SUP 4: Y109.39 1.618 swing of Y110.19-Y111.48

*COMMENTARY* Has found support from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Y110.15, the

subsequent rally correcting some of the recent losses from the month's Y113.39

high. In this respect, look to Y111.25-Y111.48 for initial resistance,

Y111.70-Y111.88 then the brake to more important Y112.06-Y112.17 levels. As a

consequence, support rises to Y110.50, loss of the latter would caution now and

put pressure back on the downside.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Range Trading Continues Above Y135.19-Y134.98 Support

*RES 4: Y137.00 4 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: Y136.79 1.618 swing of Y136.10-Y134.98

*RES 2: Y136.64 Jan 5 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y136.31 Jan 18 high

*PRICE: Y135.50 @1036GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.19 Jan 19 low

*SUP 2: Y134.98/02 Jan 16, Jan 15 lows

*SUP 3: Y134.58 Hourly low Jan 12

*SUP 4: Y134.35 Jan 11 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Currently range trading above support from Y135.19-Y134.98. Need to

hold the latter, if a deeper corrective pullback is to be avoided. Within the

range, the Y136.00 area is now the bar to a fresh attempt higher, which still

sees congested resistance from between Y136.31-Y137.00, as having the potential

to put a dampener on any recovery. Will need to escape the latter before real

belief in the topside will appear.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8747-Stg0.8737 The Next Support Of Note

*RES 4: Stg0.8862 Jan 16 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Stg0.8846 Jan 19 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8825 Hourly congestion Jan 18-19

*RES 1: Stg0.8802/05 Jan 18 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8782 @1048GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8762 Intraday low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8744/47 76.4% Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925, 1% vol band

*SUP 3: Stg0.8737 1.618 swing of Stg0.8809-Stg0.8925

*SUP 4: Stg0.8689 Dec 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from this month's failure at Stg0.8925 continues.

Monday seeing the loss of Stg0.8809-Stg0.8802 support. This the catalyst for a

further fall through the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8779. A low of

Stg0.8762 so far on the day, ahead of what looks likely to be stronger support

showing from between Stg0.8747-Stg0.8737. As a consequence, nearest resistance

falls to Stg0.8802-Stg0.8805 but above Stg0.8725 needed for any real lift.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Consolidation Continues Below $1.2509-$1.2556

*RES 4: $1.2590/91 Dec 29, Jan 11 highs

*RES 3: $1.2556 Jan 12 high

*RES 2: $1.2542 Jan 17 high

*RES 1: $1.2509 Jan 19 high

*PRICE: $1.2479 @1051GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2425/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2393/00 Jan 16, Jan 18 lows

*SUP 3: $1.2355 Jan 5 low

*SUP 4: $1.2340 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Consolidation continues as we try to correct losses from the Jan 11

high at $1.2591. Currently has $1.2509-$1.2556 in the way of another challenge

to that high. As a result, support also rises, $1.2435-$1.2425 offering initial

protection, $1.2400-$1.2393 providing a more important area below. Have to stay

above the latter or bias will again return lower, leaving the Jan 5 low at

$1.2355 vulnerable again, ahead of the 1% volatility band at $1.2340.

GOLD TECHS: $1340.0 Stands In The Way Of Fresh Upside Potential

*RES 4: $1367.3 Aug 1 high

*RES 3: $1357.7 Sep 4 high

*RES 2: $1344.8 Jan 15 high

*RES 1: $1340.0 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1336.3 @1054GMT

*SUP 1: $1322.2 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1315.8 Jan 11 low

*SUP 3: $1308.3 Jan 10 low

*SUP 4: $1303.5 38.2% Fibo of $1236.6-$1344.8

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. We have held above $1305.9

support over the last few weeks. The subsequent break through $1337.1 the next

upside boost, as we make our way back towards the Sep 4 high at $1357.7.

Currently correcting some overbought conditions, support $1322.2-$1315.8.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]