MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Reaching Towards 3 Month Bull Channel TOp

*RES 4: $1.2426 1.618 swing of $1.2093-$1.1554

*RES 3: $1.2421 1.618 swing of $1.2323-$1.2165

*RES 2: $1.2376 1.618x $1.1554-$1.1961 from $1.1717

*RES 1: $1.2355 3 month bull channel proj'n, 1% vol band

*PRICE: $1.2340 @0848GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2290 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2250 Initial recovery high Jan 23, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2214/23 Jan 22, Jan 23 lows

*SUP 4: $1.2165 Jan 17 low

*COMMENTARY* After finding some support from the 38.2% Fibo retrace at $1.2165

last week, is now making new highs. Next resistance comes from the 3 month bull

channel top projection and 1% volatility band at $1.2355. Any higher and the

projection target at $1.2376, is the potential brake to two swing targets in the

$1.2421-$1.2426 region. As a result, support moves higher, $1.2290-$1.2250 now

the protection to key near term support located between $1.2223-$1.2214.

CABLE TECHS: Extends Gains, $1.4131-$1.4148 The Next Target Area

*RES 4: $1.4269 76.4% Fibo of $1.5020-$1.1838

*RES 3: $1.4148 1.618x $1.3027-$1.3550 from $1.3302

*RES 2: $1.4131 2% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.4119 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.4087 @1004GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4040/50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.4004/15 Hourly high Jan 23, intraday hourly base

*SUP 3: $1.3985/90 Hourly congestion Jan 23

*SUP 4: $1.3964 Hourly low Jan 23

*COMMENTARY* Rally has extended through the 13 month bull channel top projection

at $1.4041 today, this as well as two swing targets between $1.4050-$1.4058 and

also the equality rise target at $1.4081. This leaves $1.4131-$1.4148 as the

next potential target zone. Meanwhile, support comes from $1.4050-$1.4004, with

the $1.3985-$1.3964 area currently of more importance below. Through $1.4148 and

not much currently showing until the 76.4% Fibo at $1.4269.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y110.15 Break Allows Y109.58-Y109.07 Fall

*RES 4: Y111.23 Jan 22 high

*RES 3: Y110.85/90 Congestion area Jan 19-22

*RES 2: Y110.49 Jan 19 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y110.19 Jan 17 low, now resistance

*PRICE: Y109.65 @0925GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.58 3 month bear channel proj'n, 1% vol band

*SUP 2: Y109.39 1.618 swing of Y110.19-Y111.48

*SUP 3: Y109.07 76.4% Fibo of Y107.32-Y114.74

*SUP 4: Y108.51 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* With the recovery failing to move any higher than Y111.48, we have

gradually moved back lower over the course of the last week, until

Y110.19-Y110.15 support has finally given way. This now sees the scope for a

deeper fall which sees the lower 1% volatility band join the 3 month bear

channel base at Y109.58, ahead of Y109.39-Y109.07 support. Resistance initially

from two previous Y110.19-Y110.49 lows.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Range Trading Continues Above Y135.19-Y134.98 Support

*RES 4: Y137.02 4 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: Y136.79/83 1.618 swing Y136.10-Y134.98, 1% vol band

*RES 2: Y136.64 Jan 5 high

*RES 1: Y136.31 Jan 18 high

*PRICE: Y135.36 @0928GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.19 Jan 19 low

*SUP 2: Y134.98/02 Jan 16, Jan 15 lows

*SUP 3: Y134.58 Hourly low Jan 12

*SUP 4: Y134.35 Jan 11 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Currently range trading above support from Y135.19-Y134.98. Need to

hold the latter, if a deeper corrective pullback is to be avoided. Within the

range, the Y136.00 area is the bar to a fresh attempt higher, which still sees

congested resistance from between Y136.31-Y137.02, as having the potential to

put a dampener on any recovery. Will need to escape the latter before real

belief in the topside will appear.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8744-Stg0.8737 The Next Support Of Note

*RES 4: Stg0.8862 Jan 16 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Stg0.8846 Jan 19 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8825 Hourly congestion Jan 18-19

*RES 1: Stg0.8802/05 Jan 18 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8761 @0930GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8762 Jan 23 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8739/44 1% vol band, 76.4% Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925

*SUP 3: Stg0.8737 1.618 swing of Stg0.8809-Stg0.8925

*SUP 4: Stg0.8689 Dec 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from this month's failure at Stg0.8925 continues.

Monday seeing the loss of Stg0.8809-Stg0.8802 support. This the catalyst for a

further fall through the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8779. A low of

Stg0.8760 so far on the day, ahead of what looks likely to be stronger support

showing from between Stg0.8744-Stg0.8737. As a consequence, nearest resistance

falls to Stg0.8802-Stg0.8805 but above Stg0.8725 needed for any real lift.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Pressure Back On The Year's Low

*RES 4: $1.2491 Jan 23 high

*RES 3: $1.2460/65 Hourly congestion Jan 22-23

*RES 2: $1.2435 Jan 22 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2415 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2367 @0943GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2355 Jan 5 low

*SUP 2: $1.2317 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.2264 76.4% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921

*SUP 4: $1.2209 1.618 swing of $1.2355-$1.2591

*COMMENTARY* Has gradually lost more and more ground since last week's lift to

$1.2542. The move back below $1.2400-$1.2393 now exposes the Jan 5 low at

$1.2355 again. Lose here and the lower 1% volatility band at $1.2317 is the

protection to the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2264. Resistance comes from

$1.2415-$1.2435 but requires a move back through $1.2460-65 before any benefit

will be seen. Below $1.2264 and the swing target at $1.2209 next.

GOLD TECHS: $1340.0 Break Suggests Scope To Retest $1357.7

*RES 4: $1380.3 38.2% Fibo of $1920.5-$1046.4

*RES 3: $1375.4 July 2016 high

*RES 2: $1367.3 Aug 1 high

*RES 1: $1357.7 Sep 4 high

*PRICE: $1349.1 @0955GMT

*SUP 1: $1338.2 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1328.5 Jan 22 low

*SUP 3: $1324.3 Jan 18 low

*SUP 4: $1315.8 Jan 11 low

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. We have held above $1305.9

support over the last few weeks. The subsequent break through $1337.1 the next

upside boost, as we make our way back towards the Sep 4 high at $1357.7. Support

rising along the way too, $1338.2-$1328.5 now the nearest of note.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]