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Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Reaching Towards 3 Month Bull Channel TOp
*RES 4: $1.2426 1.618 swing of $1.2093-$1.1554
*RES 3: $1.2421 1.618 swing of $1.2323-$1.2165
*RES 2: $1.2376 1.618x $1.1554-$1.1961 from $1.1717
*RES 1: $1.2355 3 month bull channel proj'n, 1% vol band
*PRICE: $1.2340 @0848GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2290 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2250 Initial recovery high Jan 23, now support
*SUP 3: $1.2214/23 Jan 22, Jan 23 lows
*SUP 4: $1.2165 Jan 17 low
*COMMENTARY* After finding some support from the 38.2% Fibo retrace at $1.2165
last week, is now making new highs. Next resistance comes from the 3 month bull
channel top projection and 1% volatility band at $1.2355. Any higher and the
projection target at $1.2376, is the potential brake to two swing targets in the
$1.2421-$1.2426 region. As a result, support moves higher, $1.2290-$1.2250 now
the protection to key near term support located between $1.2223-$1.2214.
CABLE TECHS: Extends Gains, $1.4131-$1.4148 The Next Target Area
*RES 4: $1.4269 76.4% Fibo of $1.5020-$1.1838
*RES 3: $1.4148 1.618x $1.3027-$1.3550 from $1.3302
*RES 2: $1.4131 2% volatility band
*RES 1: $1.4119 Intraday high
*PRICE: $1.4087 @1004GMT
*SUP 1: $1.4040/50 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.4004/15 Hourly high Jan 23, intraday hourly base
*SUP 3: $1.3985/90 Hourly congestion Jan 23
*SUP 4: $1.3964 Hourly low Jan 23
*COMMENTARY* Rally has extended through the 13 month bull channel top projection
at $1.4041 today, this as well as two swing targets between $1.4050-$1.4058 and
also the equality rise target at $1.4081. This leaves $1.4131-$1.4148 as the
next potential target zone. Meanwhile, support comes from $1.4050-$1.4004, with
the $1.3985-$1.3964 area currently of more importance below. Through $1.4148 and
not much currently showing until the 76.4% Fibo at $1.4269.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.15 Break Allows Y109.58-Y109.07 Fall
*RES 4: Y111.23 Jan 22 high
*RES 3: Y110.85/90 Congestion area Jan 19-22
*RES 2: Y110.49 Jan 19 low, now resistance
*RES 1: Y110.19 Jan 17 low, now resistance
*PRICE: Y109.65 @0925GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.58 3 month bear channel proj'n, 1% vol band
*SUP 2: Y109.39 1.618 swing of Y110.19-Y111.48
*SUP 3: Y109.07 76.4% Fibo of Y107.32-Y114.74
*SUP 4: Y108.51 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* With the recovery failing to move any higher than Y111.48, we have
gradually moved back lower over the course of the last week, until
Y110.19-Y110.15 support has finally given way. This now sees the scope for a
deeper fall which sees the lower 1% volatility band join the 3 month bear
channel base at Y109.58, ahead of Y109.39-Y109.07 support. Resistance initially
from two previous Y110.19-Y110.49 lows.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Range Trading Continues Above Y135.19-Y134.98 Support
*RES 4: Y137.02 4 month bull channel top projection
*RES 3: Y136.79/83 1.618 swing Y136.10-Y134.98, 1% vol band
*RES 2: Y136.64 Jan 5 high
*RES 1: Y136.31 Jan 18 high
*PRICE: Y135.36 @0928GMT
*SUP 1: Y135.19 Jan 19 low
*SUP 2: Y134.98/02 Jan 16, Jan 15 lows
*SUP 3: Y134.58 Hourly low Jan 12
*SUP 4: Y134.35 Jan 11 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Currently range trading above support from Y135.19-Y134.98. Need to
hold the latter, if a deeper corrective pullback is to be avoided. Within the
range, the Y136.00 area is the bar to a fresh attempt higher, which still sees
congested resistance from between Y136.31-Y137.02, as having the potential to
put a dampener on any recovery. Will need to escape the latter before real
belief in the topside will appear.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8744-Stg0.8737 The Next Support Of Note
*RES 4: Stg0.8862 Jan 16 low, now resistance
*RES 3: Stg0.8846 Jan 19 high
*RES 2: Stg0.8825 Hourly congestion Jan 18-19
*RES 1: Stg0.8802/05 Jan 18 low, hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8761 @0930GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8762 Jan 23 low
*SUP 2: Stg0.8739/44 1% vol band, 76.4% Stg0.8689-Stg0.8925
*SUP 3: Stg0.8737 1.618 swing of Stg0.8809-Stg0.8925
*SUP 4: Stg0.8689 Dec 8 low
*COMMENTARY* The fallout from this month's failure at Stg0.8925 continues.
Monday seeing the loss of Stg0.8809-Stg0.8802 support. This the catalyst for a
further fall through the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8779. A low of
Stg0.8760 so far on the day, ahead of what looks likely to be stronger support
showing from between Stg0.8744-Stg0.8737. As a consequence, nearest resistance
falls to Stg0.8802-Stg0.8805 but above Stg0.8725 needed for any real lift.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Pressure Back On The Year's Low
*RES 4: $1.2491 Jan 23 high
*RES 3: $1.2460/65 Hourly congestion Jan 22-23
*RES 2: $1.2435 Jan 22 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.2415 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2367 @0943GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2355 Jan 5 low
*SUP 2: $1.2317 1% volatility band
*SUP 3: $1.2264 76.4% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921
*SUP 4: $1.2209 1.618 swing of $1.2355-$1.2591
*COMMENTARY* Has gradually lost more and more ground since last week's lift to
$1.2542. The move back below $1.2400-$1.2393 now exposes the Jan 5 low at
$1.2355 again. Lose here and the lower 1% volatility band at $1.2317 is the
protection to the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2264. Resistance comes from
$1.2415-$1.2435 but requires a move back through $1.2460-65 before any benefit
will be seen. Below $1.2264 and the swing target at $1.2209 next.
GOLD TECHS: $1340.0 Break Suggests Scope To Retest $1357.7
*RES 4: $1380.3 38.2% Fibo of $1920.5-$1046.4
*RES 3: $1375.4 July 2016 high
*RES 2: $1367.3 Aug 1 high
*RES 1: $1357.7 Sep 4 high
*PRICE: $1349.1 @0955GMT
*SUP 1: $1338.2 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1328.5 Jan 22 low
*SUP 3: $1324.3 Jan 18 low
*SUP 4: $1315.8 Jan 11 low
*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the
upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from
last September look like a three wave correction. We have held above $1305.9
support over the last few weeks. The subsequent break through $1337.1 the next
upside boost, as we make our way back towards the Sep 4 high at $1357.7. Support
rising along the way too, $1338.2-$1328.5 now the nearest of note.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.