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Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Reaches Upper 2% Volatility Band, 'Doji' Candle
Close
*RES 4: $1.2598 61.8% Fibo of $1.3994-$1.0340
*RES 3: $1.2571 Dec 15 2014 high
*RES 2: $1.2538 Jan 25 high
*RES 1: $1.2495/00 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2445 @1012GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2395 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2364 Jan 25 low
*SUP 3: $1.2323 Jan 17 high, now support
*SUP 4: $1.2296 Jan 19 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Rally reached the upper 2% volatility band on Thursday, before
retreating on the back of some heavily overbought conditions. The lower close
has brought about a potentially bearish 'Doji' candle on the daily chart. While
$1.2500-$1.2538 caps then the immediate risk is for lower. Support
$1.2395-$1.2364, loss of the latter will caution and open up deeper corrective
potential. Above $1.2538 will ease pressure, $1.2571-$1.2598 resistance above.
CABLE TECHS: Rally Falters Ahead Of $1.4368 Fibo Level
*RES 4: $1.4515 50% Fibo of $1.7192-$1.1838
*RES 3: $1.4368 61.8% Fibo of $1.5932-$1.1838
*RES 2: $1.4346 Jan 25 high
*RES 1: $1.4285/90 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.4248 @1025GMT
*SUP 1: $1.4190/95 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.4165 Intraday hourly base
*SUP 3: $1.4130 Hourly base Jan 24
*SUP 4: $1.4083 Jan 25 low
*COMMENTARY* As suggested yesterday, the overstepping of the the upper 2%
volatility band, at $1.4265 by time today, is never a long lasting scenario, so
always cautious when it happens. The subsequent fall from $1.4346-$1.4083 is
perhaps the first warning of some heavily overbought conditions. Meanwhile,
$1.4285-90 in the way of a $1.4346-$1.4368 rise. Above which not much until
$1.4505-$1.4515. Support $1.4190-$1.4130, back below the latter would concern.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y108.80-Y108.50 Protects Downside From Another Challenge
*RES 4: Y110.49/59 Jan 19 low, hourly highs Jan 23
*RES 3: Y110.19 Jan 17 low, now resistance
*RES 2: Y109.77/81 Intraday high, hourly base Jan 24
*RES 1: Y109.55/60 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y109.14 @1030GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.80 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y108.50 Jan 25 low
*SUP 3: Y108.22/27 Sep 11, Aug 29 lows
*SUP 4: Y107.44 1.618x Y114.74-Y110.84 from Y113.75
*COMMENTARY* Broke slightly below Y108.60 support, a low of Y108.50 before
recovering swiftly, aided by some heavily oversold hourly conditions. Support
from above Y108.80 now protects the downside from another challenge,
Y108.27-Y108.22 still important below Y108.50. Resistance Y109.55-Y109.60 but
above Y109.81 is required to add more impetus to any rise and a better
correction of recent losses from Y111.23-Y111.48.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Range Trading Continues
*RES 4: Y137.17 1.618 swing of Y136.31-Y134.92
*RES 3: Y137.08 5 month channel top, 1% volatility band
*RES 2: Y136.64 Jan 5 high
*RES 1: Y136.31 Jan 18 high
*PRICE: Y135.90 @1035GMT
*SUP 1: Y135.25/35 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y134.92/98 Jan 24, Jan 16 lows
*SUP 3: Y134.58 Hourly low Jan 12
*SUP 4: Y134.35 1% volatility band, Jan 11 high
*COMMENTARY* Still basically range trading above Y134.98-Y134.92 support. While
held here, there is scope to return higher towards the range highs at
Y136.31-Y136.64. The 5 month rising support line and upper 1% volatility band at
the higher Y137.07 region today. Some interim support at Y135.35-Y135.25 now.
Loss of Y134.92 would caution and open up corrective potential.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: December Low At Stg0.8689 Survives Pressure
*RES 4: Stg0.8838 Jan 18 high
*RES 3: Stg0.8802 Jan 18 low, now resistance
*RES 2: Stg0.8786/96 Jan 25, Jan 23 highs
*RES 1: Stg0.8770/75 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8748 @1045GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8708/10 1% volatility band, hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8687/89 Jan 25, Dec 8 lows
*SUP 3: Stg0.8620 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: Stg0.8543/47 Swing target, 76.4% Stg0.8313-Stg0.9306
*COMMENTARY* The Dec 8 low at Stg0.8689 was squeezed on Thursday, a slightly
lower Stg0.8687 seen, before bouncing again. This now allows some interim
Stg0.8710-Stg0.8708 support above. Will need to move back through
Stg0.8770-Stg0.8775 however, before once again being in a position to challenge
Stg0.8796, above which is required to continue the correction of losses from the
month's earlier Stg0.8925-Stg0.8930 highs.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Pressure Back On Lower 1% Volatility Band
*RES 4: $1.2455 Congestion area Jan 22-23
*RES 3: $1.2435 Jan 22 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1.2400 Jan 18-19 lows, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.2360/70 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2308 @1050GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2282/86 Jan 25 low, 1% volatility band
*SUP 2: $1.2264 76.4% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921
*SUP 3: $1.2209 1.618 swing of $1.2355-$1.2591
*SUP 4: $1.2162 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* The decline continued on Thursday, leaving the Jan 5 low at $1.2355
behind, as we look to test the resolve of the lower 1% volatility band at
$1.2286 by time today. Lower and the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2264 offers next
protection against a deeper $1.2209 fall. Meanwhile, resistance is seen from
$1.2360-$1.2370 but needing to escape $1.2400 before any correction has room to
breathe.
GOLD TECHS: $1357.7 Break opens Way To $1367.3-$1380.3 Next
*RES 4: $1401.2 13 month bull channel top projection
*RES 3: $1380.3 38.2% Fibo of $1920.5-$1046.4
*RES 2: $1375.4 July 2016 high
*RES 1: $1367.3 Aug 1 high
*PRICE: $1354.2 @1053GMT
*SUP 1: $1346.0 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1342.5 Jan 25 low
*SUP 3: $1339.6 Jan 24 low
*SUP 4: $1333.2 Jan 18 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the
upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from
last September look like a three wave correction. The subsequent break through
$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we make our way back through the Sep 4 high at
$1357.7. This sees $1367.3-$1375.4 as next resistance ahead of the 38.2% Fibo at
$1380.3. Support moving too, $1342.5-$1339.6 now the nearest of note.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.