MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Reaches Upper 2% Volatility Band, 'Doji' Candle

Close

*RES 4: $1.2598 61.8% Fibo of $1.3994-$1.0340

*RES 3: $1.2571 Dec 15 2014 high

*RES 2: $1.2538 Jan 25 high

*RES 1: $1.2495/00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2445 @1012GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2395 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2364 Jan 25 low

*SUP 3: $1.2323 Jan 17 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2296 Jan 19 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Rally reached the upper 2% volatility band on Thursday, before

retreating on the back of some heavily overbought conditions. The lower close

has brought about a potentially bearish 'Doji' candle on the daily chart. While

$1.2500-$1.2538 caps then the immediate risk is for lower. Support

$1.2395-$1.2364, loss of the latter will caution and open up deeper corrective

potential. Above $1.2538 will ease pressure, $1.2571-$1.2598 resistance above.

CABLE TECHS: Rally Falters Ahead Of $1.4368 Fibo Level

*RES 4: $1.4515 50% Fibo of $1.7192-$1.1838

*RES 3: $1.4368 61.8% Fibo of $1.5932-$1.1838

*RES 2: $1.4346 Jan 25 high

*RES 1: $1.4285/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.4248 @1025GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4190/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.4165 Intraday hourly base

*SUP 3: $1.4130 Hourly base Jan 24

*SUP 4: $1.4083 Jan 25 low

*COMMENTARY* As suggested yesterday, the overstepping of the the upper 2%

volatility band, at $1.4265 by time today, is never a long lasting scenario, so

always cautious when it happens. The subsequent fall from $1.4346-$1.4083 is

perhaps the first warning of some heavily overbought conditions. Meanwhile,

$1.4285-90 in the way of a $1.4346-$1.4368 rise. Above which not much until

$1.4505-$1.4515. Support $1.4190-$1.4130, back below the latter would concern.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y108.80-Y108.50 Protects Downside From Another Challenge

*RES 4: Y110.49/59 Jan 19 low, hourly highs Jan 23

*RES 3: Y110.19 Jan 17 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y109.77/81 Intraday high, hourly base Jan 24

*RES 1: Y109.55/60 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y109.14 @1030GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.80 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.50 Jan 25 low

*SUP 3: Y108.22/27 Sep 11, Aug 29 lows

*SUP 4: Y107.44 1.618x Y114.74-Y110.84 from Y113.75

*COMMENTARY* Broke slightly below Y108.60 support, a low of Y108.50 before

recovering swiftly, aided by some heavily oversold hourly conditions. Support

from above Y108.80 now protects the downside from another challenge,

Y108.27-Y108.22 still important below Y108.50. Resistance Y109.55-Y109.60 but

above Y109.81 is required to add more impetus to any rise and a better

correction of recent losses from Y111.23-Y111.48.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Range Trading Continues 

*RES 4: Y137.17 1.618 swing of Y136.31-Y134.92

*RES 3: Y137.08 5 month channel top, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y136.64 Jan 5 high

*RES 1: Y136.31 Jan 18 high

*PRICE: Y135.90 @1035GMT

*SUP 1: Y135.25/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y134.92/98 Jan 24, Jan 16 lows

*SUP 3: Y134.58 Hourly low Jan 12

*SUP 4: Y134.35 1% volatility band, Jan 11 high

*COMMENTARY* Still basically range trading above Y134.98-Y134.92 support. While

held here, there is scope to return higher towards the range highs at

Y136.31-Y136.64. The 5 month rising support line and upper 1% volatility band at

the higher Y137.07 region today. Some interim support at Y135.35-Y135.25 now.

Loss of Y134.92 would caution and open up corrective potential.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: December Low At Stg0.8689 Survives Pressure

*RES 4: Stg0.8838 Jan 18 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8802 Jan 18 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Stg0.8786/96 Jan 25, Jan 23 highs

*RES 1: Stg0.8770/75 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8748 @1045GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8708/10 1% volatility band, hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8687/89 Jan 25, Dec 8 lows

*SUP 3: Stg0.8620 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8543/47 Swing target, 76.4% Stg0.8313-Stg0.9306

*COMMENTARY* The Dec 8 low at Stg0.8689 was squeezed on Thursday, a slightly

lower Stg0.8687 seen, before bouncing again. This now allows some interim

Stg0.8710-Stg0.8708 support above. Will need to move back through

Stg0.8770-Stg0.8775 however, before once again being in a position to challenge

Stg0.8796, above which is required to continue the correction of losses from the

month's earlier Stg0.8925-Stg0.8930 highs.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Pressure Back On Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2455 Congestion area Jan 22-23

*RES 3: $1.2435 Jan 22 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2400 Jan 18-19 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2360/70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2308 @1050GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2282/86 Jan 25 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $1.2264 76.4% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921

*SUP 3: $1.2209 1.618 swing of $1.2355-$1.2591

*SUP 4: $1.2162 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The decline continued on Thursday, leaving the Jan 5 low at $1.2355

behind, as we look to test the resolve of the lower 1% volatility band at

$1.2286 by time today. Lower and the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2264 offers next

protection against a deeper $1.2209 fall. Meanwhile, resistance is seen from

$1.2360-$1.2370 but needing to escape $1.2400 before any correction has room to

breathe.

GOLD TECHS: $1357.7 Break opens Way To $1367.3-$1380.3 Next

*RES 4: $1401.2 13 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: $1380.3 38.2% Fibo of $1920.5-$1046.4

*RES 2: $1375.4 July 2016 high

*RES 1: $1367.3 Aug 1 high

*PRICE: $1354.2 @1053GMT

*SUP 1: $1346.0 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1342.5 Jan 25 low

*SUP 3: $1339.6 Jan 24 low

*SUP 4: $1333.2 Jan 18 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. The subsequent break through

$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we make our way back through the Sep 4 high at

$1357.7. This sees $1367.3-$1375.4 as next resistance ahead of the 38.2% Fibo at

$1380.3. Support moving too, $1342.5-$1339.6 now the nearest of note.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]