MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Now Meets $1.2460-$1.2473 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2597 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2538 Jan 25 high

*RES 2: $1.2490/94 76.4% Fibo of $1.2538-$1.2335, Jan 26 high

*RES 1: $1.2460/73 61.8% of $1.2538-$1.2335, 1% vol band

*PRICE: $1.2444 @0923GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2405 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2384 Hourly base Jan 30

*SUP 3: $1.2320/23 Equality fall from $1.2494, Jan 17 high

*SUP 4: $1.2307 61.8% Fibo of $1.2165-$1.2538

*COMMENTARY* Rally reached the upper 2% volatility band last Thursday, before

retreating on the back of some heavily overbought conditions. The lower close

has brought about a potentially bearish 'Doji' candle on the daily chart. While

$1.2494-$1.2538 caps then the immediate risk is still for lower. Has so far

found support from above $1.2320-23 thereby allowing a bounce on the back of

oversold hourly studies. $1.2460-73 initial resistance, $1.2405-$1.2384 support.

CABLE TECHS: $1.4260-$1.4287 Remains Key To Fresh Upside Potential

*RES 4: $1.4346/53 Jan 25 high, 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.4287 Jan 26 high

*RES 2: $1.4260 76.4% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3980

*RES 1: $1.4212/14 1% volatility band, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.4181 @0934GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4125/36 Hourly support, intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.4098 Hourly base Jan 30

*SUP 3: $1.4025/35 Jan 29 low, congestion Jan 30

*SUP 4: $1.3980 Jan 30 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from $1.3980 on Tuesday, ahead of the slightly

stronger $1.3957-$1.3943 area. As a result, became oversold. $1.4206-$1.4208

resistance slightly surpassed but faltering so far around the upper 1%

volatility band. Support rises accordingly, now seeing $1.4136-$1.4125 as

providing initial protection against another push to the downside. Still require

a move back above $1.4260-$1.4287 to shake off negative daily studies.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Decent Support Still Seen From Between Y108.27-Y108.22

*RES 4: Y110.19 Jan 17 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y109.77 Jan 26 high

*RES 2: Y109.42/48 Hourly highs Jan 25-26

*RES 1: Y109.20/25 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y108.71 @0936GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.42/50 Jan 30 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.22/27 Sep 11, Aug 29 lows

*SUP 3: Y107.72 1.618 swing of Y108.50-Y109.77

*SUP 4: Y107.32/49 Sep 8 low, 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Pushed lower last Friday, breaking below Y108.50 support, a low of

Y108.28 so far, before recovering, aided by some heavily oversold hourly

conditions. Now looking at Y109.20-Y109.25 for initial resistance

Y109.42-Y109.48 higher. There is still decent support from Y108.27-Y108.22 and

this currently protects against a further Y107.72-Y107.32 fall. Probably need a

rally through Y109.77 before any real upside belief will follow.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Recovery Meets Y135.48-Y135.80 Resistance Next

*RES 4: Y136.64/82 Jan 5 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y136.29/31 Jan 25, Jan 18 highs

*RES 2: Y135.80 76.4% Fibo of Y136.31-Y134.13

*RES 1: Y135.48/49 61.8% Y136.31-Y134.13, hourly high Jan 26

*PRICE: Y135.25 @0946GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.75/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y134.33 Jan 29 low

*SUP 3: Y134.10/13 1% volatility band, Jan 30 low

*SUP 4: Y133.82/85 76.4% Y133.05-Y136.31, 6 mth support line

*COMMENTARY* The correction of the most recent Y133.05-Y136.31 rise has found

support from Y134.13, above the lower 1% volatility band and also the 6 month

rising support line at Y133.85. Meanwhile, the move back above Y134.80-Y135.02

has allowed some respite but rallies will likely require a move back through

Y135.49-Y135.80, before overall upside focus is regained. Meanwhile, interim

support comes from Y134.75-Y134.33.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Correction Falters Around 61.8% Fibo Level

*RES 4: Stg0.8864/73 1% vol band, 76.4% Stg0.8930-Stg0.8687

*RES 3: Stg0.8846 Jan 19 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8838 Jan 18 high, 61.8% of Stg0.8930-Stg0.8687

*RES 1: Stg0.8815 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8808 @0955GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8754 Jan 30 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8740/45 Congestion area Jan 25-26

*SUP 3: Stg0.8724 Jan 26 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8687/89 Jan 25, Dec 8 lows, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The Dec 8 low at Stg0.8689 was squeezed last Thursday, a slightly

lower Stg0.8687 seen, before bouncing again. The recovery gained momentum this

week, the latest rise challenging towards the Jan 18 high and 61.8% Fibo retrace

level at Stg0.8838, before hitting some near term overbought conditions. As a

consequence, support now comes from Stg0.8754-Stg0.8724, this now anticipated to

remain intact, if further gains back up the recent range are to be contemplated.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Fibo Resistance At $0.8114 The Brake To Fresh Upside Hopes

*RES 4: $0.8194 1.618 swing of $0.8136-$0.8042

*RES 3: $0.8165/67 May 2015 high, 50% of $0.9507-$0.6827

*RES 2: $0.8126/36 Sep 8, Jan 26 highs, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $0.8114 Jan 30 high, 76.4% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.8042

*PRICE: $0.8096 @1003GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.8042/47 Jan 30, intraday lows

*SUP 2: $0.8035 Initial rally high Jan 26, now support

*SUP 3: $0.8000/13 Jan 25 low, 8 week rising support line 

*SUP 4: $0.7985 Congestion area Jan 17-23

*COMMENTARY* Poked it's head above the Sep 8 high at $0.8126, a high of $0.8136

last Friday, before once again succumbing to near term overbought conditions.

The loss of $0.8070 support put pressure on important support from $0.8035

initially, with $0.8013-$0.8000 important below, which includes the 8 week

rising support line. Nearest resistance now comes from the 76.4% Fibo at

$0.8114, back above the latter needed to resurrect upside interest again.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Decline Eyes $1.2264-$1.2253 Support

*RES 4: $1.2435 Jan 22 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2392/00 Jan 25 high, Jan 19 low

*RES 2: $1.2355/65 Congestion area Jan 26-30

*RES 1: $1.2348 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2289 @1016GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2253/64 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921

*SUP 2: $1.2214 1.618 swing of $1.2282-$1.2392

*SUP 3: $1.2209 1.618 swing of $1.2355-$1.2591

*SUP 4: $1.2130 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The decline continues, having failed to make any inroads into

$1.2400 resistance. Last week's $1.2282 low has given way, the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at $1.2264 and the lower 1% volatility band at $1.2253, protecting

the downside from a further $1.2214-$1.2209 fall. These two swing targets

obtained over the course of the month. Resistance meantime, comes from the day's

$1.2348 high and the congested $1.2355-$1.2365 area, below that $1.2400 level.

GOLD TECHS: Correcting Lower After Rally Falters Ahead of $1367.3

*RES 4: $1375.4 July 2016 high

*RES 3: $1366.2/67.3 Jan 25, Aug 1 highs 

*RES 2: $1357.3 Jan 26 high

*RES 1: $1352.6 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1343.0 @1018GMT

*SUP 1: $1333.2 Jan 18 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1327.9 Jan 10 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1324.3 Jan 18 low

*SUP 4: $1320.1 76.4% Fibo of $1305.9-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. The subsequent break through

$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we made our way back through the Sep 4 high at

$1357.7. This sees $1367.3-$1375.4 as next resistance ahead of the 38.2% Fibo at

$1380.3. Support moving lower now, $1333.2-$1320.1 the potential pullback area.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]