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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis 

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Meets Resistance From Upper 1% Volatility Band
*RES 4: $1.2597 2% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.2538 Jan 25 high
*RES 2: $1.2490/94 76.4% Fibo of $1.2538-$1.2335, Jan 26 high
*RES 1: $1.2473/75 1% volatility band, intraday high
*PRICE: $1.2425 @1659GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.2405 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2384 Hourly base Jan 30
*SUP 3: $1.2320/23 Equality fall from $1.2494, Jan 17 high
*SUP 4: $1.2307 61.8% Fibo of $1.2165-$1.2538
*COMMENTARY* Rally reached the upper 2% volatility band last Thursday, before
retreating on the back of some heavily overbought conditions. The lower close
has brought about a potentially bearish 'Doji' candle on the daily chart. While
$1.2494-$1.2538 caps then the immediate risk is still for lower. Has so far
found support from above $1.2320-23 thereby allowing a bounce on the back of
oversold hourly studies. $1.2473 initial resistance, $1.2405-$1.2384 support.
CABLE TECHS: $1.4260-$1.4287 Remains Key To Fresh Upside Potential
*RES 4: $1.4346/53 Jan 25 high, 2% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.4287 Jan 26 high
*RES 2: $1.4260 76.4% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3980
*RES 1: $1.4233 Intraday high
*PRICE: $1.4195 @1705GMT
*SUP 1: $1.4145/50 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.4122 Intraday low
*SUP 3: $1.4075/80 Congestion area Jan 29-30
*SUP 4: $1.4025 Jan 29 low
*COMMENTARY* Found support from $1.3980 on Tuesday, ahead of the slightly
stronger $1.3957-$1.3943 area. As a result, became oversold. The subsequent rise
has broken above $1.4206-$1.4212 resistance, faltering so far around $1.4233 and
still shy of a move back above $1.4260-$1.4287, needed to shake off negative
daily studies. Support rises accordingly, $1.4150-$1.4122 now providing initial
protection against another push to the downside.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y109.48-Y109.77 Still Provides Decent Resistance
*RES 4: Y110.49 Jan 19 low, now resistance
*RES 3: Y110.19 Jan 17 low, now resistance
*RES 2: Y109.77 Jan 26 high
*RES 1: Y109.42/48 Hourly highs Jan 25-26
*PRICE: Y109.34 @1710GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.60/70 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y108.22/27 Sep 11, Aug 29 lows
*SUP 3: Y107.72 1.618 swing of Y108.50-Y109.77
*SUP 4: Y107.32/49 Sep 8 low, 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Pushed lower last Friday, breaking below Y108.50 support, a low of
Y108.28 so far, before recovering, aided by some heavily oversold hourly
conditions. Now looking at Y109.42-Y109.48 for initial resistance but probably
need a rally through Y109.77 before any real upside belief will follow.
Y108.70-Y108.60 support but there is still decent support from Y108.27-Y108.22
and this currently protects against a further Y107.72-Y107.32 fall.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Recovery Moves Back Toward Recent Range Highs
*RES 4: Y137.17 5 month rising resistance line
*RES 3: Y136.87 1% volatility band
*RES 2: Y136.64 Jan 5 high
*RES 1: Y136.29/31 Jan 25, Jan 18 highs
*PRICE: Y135.86 @1716GMT
*SUP 1: Y135.35/45 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y135.12 Intraday hourly base
*SUP 3: Y134.75 Hourly pullback low Jan 30 
*SUP 4: Y134.13/16 Jan 30 low, 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* The correction of the most recent Y133.05-Y136.31 rise found
support from Y134.13, above the lower 1% volatility band and also the 6 month
rising support line at Y133.85. Meanwhile, with today's move back above Y135.80
has almost completed a return to recent 136.29-136.31 range top. A high of
136.06 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, support comes from Y135.45-Y134.35,
with 135.12 currently more important below.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Correction Falters Around 61.8% Fibo Level
*RES 4: Stg0.8864/73 1% vol band, 76.4% Stg0.8930-Stg0.8687
*RES 3: Stg0.8846 Jan 19 high
*RES 2: Stg0.8838 Jan 18 high, 61.8% of Stg0.8930-Stg0.8687
*RES 1: Stg0.8815 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8756 @1722GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8754 Jan 30 low
*SUP 2: Stg0.8740/45 Congestion area Jan 25-26
*SUP 3: Stg0.8724 Jan 26 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8687/89 Jan 25, Dec 8 lows, 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* The Dec 8 low at Stg0.8689 was squeezed last Thursday, a slightly
lower Stg0.8687 seen, before bouncing again. The recovery gained momentum this
week, the latest rise challenging towards the Jan 18 high and 61.8% Fibo retrace
level at Stg0.8838, before hitting some near term overbought conditions. As a
consequence, support now comes from Stg0.8754-Stg0.8724, this now anticipated to
remain intact, if further gains back up the recent range are to be contemplated.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Fibo Resistance At $0.8114 The Brake To Fresh Upside Hopes
*RES 4: $0.8194 1.618 swing of $0.8136-$0.8042
*RES 3: $0.8165/67 May 2015 high, 50% of $0.9507-$0.6827
*RES 2: $0.8126/36 Sep 8, Jan 26 highs, 1% volatility band
*RES 1: $0.8114 Jan 30 high, 76.4% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.8042
*PRICE: $0.8067 @1725GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.8042/47 Jan 30, intraday lows
*SUP 2: $0.8035 Initial rally high Jan 26, now support
*SUP 3: $0.8000/13 Jan 25 low, 8 week rising support line 
*SUP 4: $0.7985 Congestion area Jan 17-23
*COMMENTARY* Poked it's head above the Sep 8 high at $0.8126, a high of $0.8136
last Friday, before once again succumbing to near term overbought conditions.
The loss of $0.8070 support put pressure on important support from $0.8035
initially, with $0.8013-$0.8000 important below, which includes the 8 week
rising support line. Nearest resistance now comes from the 76.4% Fibo at
$0.8114, back above the latter needed to resurrect upside interest again.
     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Decline Tests Lower 1% Volatility Band
*RES 4: $1.2435 Jan 22 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $1.2392/00 Jan 25 high, Jan 19 low
*RES 2: $1.2355/65 Congestion area Jan 26-30
*RES 1: $1.2348 Intraday high
*PRICE: $1.2301 @1730GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2249/53 Intraday low, 1% volatility band
*SUP 2: $1.2214 1.618 swing of $1.2282-$1.2392
*SUP 3: $1.2209 1.618 swing of $1.2355-$1.2591
*SUP 4: $1.2130 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* The decline continues, having failed to make any inroads into
$1.2400 resistance. Last week's $1.2282 low has given way, the 76.4% Fibo
retrace level at $1.2264 also, with the lower 1% volatility band at $1.2253,
protecting the downside from a further fall towards two $1.2214-$1.2209 swing
targets. Resistance meantime, comes from the day's $1.2348 high and the
congested $1.2355-$1.2365 area, below that $1.2400 level.
GOLD TECHS: Correcting Lower After Rally Falters Ahead of $1367.3
*RES 4: $1375.4 July 2016 high
*RES 3: $1366.2/67.3 Jan 25, Aug 1 highs 
*RES 2: $1357.3 Jan 26 high
*RES 1: $1352.6 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1341.1 @1734GMT
*SUP 1: $1333.2 Jan 18 high, now support
*SUP 2: $1327.9 Jan 10 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1324.3 Jan 18 low
*SUP 4: $1320.1 76.4% Fibo of $1305.9-$1366.2
*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the
upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from
last September look like a three wave correction. The subsequent break through
$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we made our way back through the Sep 4 high at
$1357.7. This sees $1367.3-$1375.4 as next resistance ahead of the 38.2% Fibo at
$1380.3. Support moving lower now, $1333.2-$1320.1 the potential pullback area.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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