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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis 

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2360-$1.2369 In The Way Of Continued Recovery
*RES 4: $1.2486 1% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.2435 Feb 19 high
*RES 2: $1.2413/16 Hourly recovery highs Feb 19
*RES 1: $1.2360/69 Feb 21 high, Feb 19 low
*PRICE: $1.2320 @1637GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.2280/85 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2260 Intraday low
*SUP 3: $1.2236 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.2206 Feb 9 low
*COMMENTARY* Broke below $1.2289-$1.2276 support, a low of $1.2260 so far, as we
head towards the next downside markers, the lower 1% volatility band at $1.2236
and the Feb 9 low at $1.2206. Some near term oversold conditions can see a rise
but likely needs to see a move back above the $1.2360-$1.2369 region, before any
real upside confidence will appear. Below $1.2206 and attention will switch to
the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at $1.2173.
CABLE TECHS: Downside Finds Intraday Protection From $1.3855 Fibo Level
*RES 4: $1.4050 Feb 19 high
*RES 3: $1.4009 Feb 21 high
*RES 2: $1.3975 Hourly high Feb 19
*RES 1: $1.3959 Feb 19 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $1.3940 @1642GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3875/80 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3855 76.4% Fibo of $1.3765-$1.4145
*SUP 3: $1.3800/10 Feb 14 low, 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.3765 Feb 9 low
*COMMENTARY* Fell earlier in the day, most latterly losing support from
$1.3920-$1.3902. The next marker of note is the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at
$1.3855. This the current protection to the lower 1% volatility band at $1.3810
and the Feb 14 low at $1.3800. Oversold near term, consequently, nearest
resistance of note now comes from between the $1.3959-$1.3975 area. Will need to
post gains back through here before any topside confidence will appear.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Recovery Falters Beneath Y108.05-Y108.28 Resistance
*RES 4: Y108.34/40 2018 falling resistance line, 1% vol band
*RES 3: Y108.28 Jan 26 low, now resistance
*RES 2: Y107.91/05 Feb 21 high, Feb 9 low
*RES 1: Y107.50/60 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y107.03 @1650GMT
*SUP 1: Y106.65 Intraday low
*SUP 2: Y106.35/45 Hourly lows/highs Feb 16-19
*SUP 3: Y105.92/10 Hourly base Feb 16 & Feb 19 
*SUP 4: Y105.55 Feb 16 low
*COMMENTARY* The recovery continued on Wednesday, moving us even further away
from the lower 2% volatility band. The move through Y107.65 seeing the next leg
higher towards resistance from two recent Y108.05-Y108.28 lows. In the interim,
nearest support from Y107.00 has given way, loss concerns and allows a deeper
Y106.35-Y106.10 pullback. Above Y108.28 and the year's falling resistance line
is at Y108.34 and the upper 1% volatility band at Y108.40.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Downside Being Challenged After Failure Below Y133.39
*RES 4: Y133.06/11 Feb 21, Feb 16 highs
*RES 3: Y132.78 Hourly recovery high Feb 21
*RES 2: Y132.50 Hourly congestion Feb 20-21
*RES 1: Y132.20/27 Hourly resistance, initial low Feb 21
*PRICE: Y131.93 @1652GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.32 1% volatility band
*SUP 2: Y131.17 Nov 17 low
*SUP 3: Y131.04 1.618 swing of Y131.81-Y133.06
*SUP 4: Y130.51 1.618 swing of Y131.61-Y133.39
*COMMENTARY* Wednesday's rally left us short of the Feb 14 high at Y133.39.
Needed to post gains back above here, before any confidence in the topside would
ave been restored. Have seen a swift move down since, losing Tuesday's Y132.12
ow and also the previous Y131.81-Y131.61 basing area. The 1% volatility band at
131.32 now the protection to the Nov 17 low at Y131.17, beneath which
131.04-Y130.51 becomes next target zone. Resistance Y132.20-Y132.50.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pullback From Recent Range Top Tests Stg0.8805 Support
*RES 4: Stg0.8920/26 Feb 14, Jan 12 highs
*RES 3: Stg0.8890 Feb 16 high
*RES 2: Stg0.8870/75 Feb 19 high, Feb 14 low
*RES 1: Stg0.8855 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8843 @1654GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8805 61.8% Stg0.8732-Stg0.8920, Feb 20/21 lows
*SUP 2: Stg0.8776/79 76.4% of Stg0.8732-Stg0.8920, Feb 9 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8767 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Stg0.8732/42 Feb 8 low, 76.4% of Stg0.8687-Stg0.8920
*COMMENTARY* Continued to lose ground on Wednesday following the failure to deal
ith range top resistance at Stg0.8926 last week. The loss of
Stg0.8843-Stg0.8841 support sees the first of two dual Fibo support levels at
tg0.8805 as the next potential target. Any lower and the second dual support
from Stg0.8776 then comes into play. Meanwhile, Stg0.8855 becomes resistance,
Stg0.8870-Stg0.8875 currently more important above.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Decline Tests Top Of Congested $0.7795-$0.7744 Support 
*RES 4: $0.7915 Congestion area Feb 16-20
*RES 3: $0.7893 Feb 16 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7880 Hourly recovery high Feb 21 
*RES 1: $0.7855/60 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $0.7850 @1703GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7790/95 Intraday low, 1% volatility band
*SUP 2: $0.7773 Feb 14 low
*SUP 3: $0.7759 Feb 9 low
*SUP 4: $0.7744 61.8% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136
*COMMENTARY* Continued to fall throughout Wednesday, losing $0.7824-$0.7810
support late in the day. Now looking at a challenge to the lower 1% volatility
band, at $0.7795 by time today. This the top end of what looks a congested band
of support from above the Feb 9 low at $0.7759 and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level
at $0.7744. Meanwhile, some oversold hourly conditions being repaired,
$0.7850-60 the immediate barrier, $0.7880-$0.7893 higher.
     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovery Heads Toward 76.4% Fibo Retrace At $1.2762
*RES 4: $1.2921 Dec 19 high
*RES 3: $1.2837/39 1.618 swing $1.2689-$1.2450, 2% vol band
*RES 2: $1.2762 76.4% Fibo of $1.2921-$1.2249
*RES 1: $1.2728/38 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2710 @1710GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2655/65 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2625 Feb 21 low
*SUP 3: $1.2580/85 Congestion area Feb 19-20
*SUP 4: $1.2557/68 Feb 16 high, hourly basing Feb 19 
*COMMENTARY* After initially probing towards the Feb 9 high at $1.2689 on
Wednesday, had to endure a sharp $1.2625 setback, before regrouping for another
challenge. This has resulted in a $1.2758 flourish today, taking us briefly
through the upper 1% volatility band at $1.2717 and within reach of the next
barrier, the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2762.  Meanwhile, $1.2665-$1.2655 supports
ahead of that $1.2625 level.
GOLD TECHS: Correction Of This Month's Gains Nears $1320.0-$1318.1 
*RES 4: $1361.8 Feb 16 high
*RES 3: $1351.6 Feb 19 high
*RES 2: $1346.6 Feb 20 high
*RES 1: $1336.4 Feb 21 high
*PRICE: $1328.8 @1712GMT
*SUP 1: $1320.0 76.4% Fibo of $1307.1-$1361.8
*SUP 2: $1318.1 Feb 14 low
*SUP 3: $1307.1 Feb 8 low
*SUP 4: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*COMMENTARY* Unable to find the ability to retest the year's $1366.2 high and
has been gradually suffering since. The latest fall back beneath $1344.9 allows
some further correction of recent gains from this month's $1307.1 base. In this
respect the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1320.0 and the Feb 14 low at $1318.1
now offer a potential reprieve. In the interim, resistance moves to
$1336.4-$1346.6 but back above $1351.6 needed to revive upside interest.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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