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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis 

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2360-$1.2369 In The Way Of Continued Recovery
*RES 4: $1.2486/93 76.4% of $1.2556-$1.2260, 1% vol band
*RES 3: $1.2435 Feb 19 high
*RES 2: $1.2413/16 Hourly recovery highs Feb 19
*RES 1: $1.2360/69 Feb 21 high, Feb 19 low
*PRICE: $1.2315 @0932GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.2280/85 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2260 Feb 22 low
*SUP 3: $1.2246 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.2206 Feb 9 low
*COMMENTARY* Broke below $1.2289-$1.2276 on Thursday, a low of $1.2260, ahead of
the next downside markers, the lower 1% volatility band at $1.2246 and the Feb 9
low at $1.2206. Some near term oversold conditions can see a rise but likely
needs to sustain a move back above the $1.2360-$1.2369 region, before any real
upside confidence will appear, for some correction of losses from $1.2556. Below
$1.2206 and attention will switch to the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at $1.2173.
CABLE TECHS: Recovering After Hold Above $1.3855 Fibo Level
*RES 4: $1.4077 76.4% Fibo of $1.4145-$1.3924
*RES 3: $1.4050/56 Feb 19 high, equality rise from $1.3924
*RES 2: $1.4029 1.618 swing of $1.3989-$1.3924
*RES 1: $1.4009 Feb 21 high
*PRICE: $1.3986 @0942GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3924 Intraday low
*SUP 2: $1.3890 Hourly support
*SUP 3: $1.3855 76.4% Fibo of $1.3765-$1.4145
*SUP 4: $1.3833 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Fell early in the day on Thursday, losing support from
$1.3920-$1.3902. Found support from $1.3857 just above the next marker of note,
the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3855. This the protection to the lower 1%
volatility band at $1.3833 and the Feb 14 low at $1.3800. Oversold near term,
back above $1.3975 encourages for perhaps a greater $1.4029-$1.4056 rise. Will
need back through $1.4077-$1.4115  before real topside confidence will appear.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Recovery Falters Beneath Key Y108.05-Y108.28 Resistance
*RES 4: Y108.15/28 1% volatility band, Jan 26 low
*RES 3: Y107.91/05 Feb 21 high, Feb 9 low
*RES 2: Y107.61 Hourly recovery high Feb 22
*RES 1: Y107.30/40 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y106.90 @0955GMT
*SUP 1: Y106.60 Feb 22 low
*SUP 2: Y106.35/45 Hourly lows/highs Feb 16-19
*SUP 3: Y105.92/01 Hourly base Feb 16, 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Y105.55 Feb 16 low
*COMMENTARY* The recovery came to a halt at Y107.91 on Wednesday, leaving us shy
of a test to the key Y108.05-Y108.28 region. As well as two previous lows,
within here today lies the upper 1% volatility band, Y108.15 and also the 2018
falling resistance line at Y108.18. Will therefore need to conquer this area,
before any real upside impetus will be found. Meanwhile, Y106.60 is initial
support but Y106.45-Y105.92 provides a better gauge to direction below.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Key Support Situated Between Y131.17-Y131.04 Today
*RES 4: Y133.06/11 Feb 21, Feb 16 highs
*RES 3: Y132.78 Hourly recovery high Feb 21
*RES 2: Y132.35/40 Hourly congestion Feb 21-22
*RES 1: Y131.95/05 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y131.56 @1008GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.29 Feb 22 low
*SUP 2: Y131.13/17 1% volatility band, Nov 17 low
*SUP 3: Y131.04 1.618 swing of Y131.81-Y133.06
*SUP 4: Y130.51 1.618 swing of Y131.61-Y133.39
*COMMENTARY* Sank again yesterday, moving ever closer to the key Y131.17-Y131.04
support area. The latter swing target seen as the last protection against a
deeper Y130.51 and perhaps Y129.80 fall, where the lower 2% volatility band lies
today. This would also open up the prospect of beginning a correction of the
Y114.85-Y137.51 gains seen since April last year. Meanwhile, a Y131.95-Y132.05
break would allow a breather and a higher Y132.35-Y132.78 bounce.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8805 Support Back Under Pressure 
*RES 4: Stg0.8920/26 Feb 14, Jan 12 highs
*RES 3: Stg0.8890 Feb 16 high
*RES 2: Stg0.8870/75 Feb 19 high, Feb 14 low
*RES 1: Stg0.8840/50 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8808 @1014GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8802/05 Intraday low, 61.8% Stg0.8732-Stg0.8920
*SUP 2: Stg0.8776/79 76.4% of Stg0.8732-Stg0.8920, Feb 9 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8763/69 1% vol band, swing Stg0.8805-Stg0.8864
*SUP 4: Stg0.8732/42 Feb 8 low, 76.4% of Stg0.8687-Stg0.8920
*COMMENTARY* Has continued to lose ground this week, following the failure to
deal with range top resistance at Stg0.8926 last. The first of two dual Fibo
support levels at Stg0.8805 is under assault again today. Any lower and the
second dual support from Stg0.8776 then comes into play, ahead of the swing
target and 1% volatility band between Stg0.8769-Stg0.8763. Meanwhile,
Stg0.8840-50 becomes resistance, Stg0.8870-Stg0.8875 more important above.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Decline Tests Top Of Congested $0.7795-$0.7744 Support 
*RES 4: $0.7915 Congestion area Feb 16-20
*RES 3: $0.7893 Feb 16 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7880 Hourly recovery high Feb 21 
*RES 1: $0.7855/60 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $0.7822 @1022GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7790/95 Feb 22 low, 1% volatility band
*SUP 2: $0.7773 Feb 14 low
*SUP 3: $0.7759 Feb 9 low
*SUP 4: $0.7744 61.8% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136
*COMMENTARY* Continued to fall again Thursday, seeing another challenge to the
lower 1% volatility band, at $0.7795 by time today. This the top end of what
looks a congested band of support from above the Feb 9 low at $0.7759 and the
61.8% Fibo retrace level at $0.7744. Meanwhile, the oversold hourly conditions
have only produced a $0.7860 rise so far. This the barrier to a higher
$0.7880-$0.7915 recovery, although main resistance comes from $0.7935-$0.7940.
     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovery Heads Toward 76.4% Fibo Retrace At $1.2762
*RES 4: $1.2921 Dec 19 high
*RES 3: $1.2837/56 1.618 swing $1.2689-$1.2450, 2% vol band
*RES 2: $1.2762 76.4% Fibo of $1.2921-$1.2249
*RES 1: $1.2730/38 1% volatility band, hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2711 @1027GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2655/65 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2625 Feb 21 low
*SUP 3: $1.2557/68 Feb 16 high, hourly basing Feb 19 
*SUP 4: $1.2528 Feb 19 low 
*COMMENTARY* After initially probing towards the Feb 9 high at $1.2689 on
Wednesday, had to endure a sharp $1.2625 setback, before regrouping for another
challenge. This resulted in a $1.2758 flourish yesterday, taking us briefly
through the upper 1% volatility band at $1.2730 today and within reach of the
next barrier, the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2762.  Meanwhile, $1.2665-$1.2655
supports ahead of that now key near term $1.2625 level.
GOLD TECHS: Correction Of This Month's Gains Nears $1320.0-$1318.1 
*RES 4: $1361.8 Feb 16 high
*RES 3: $1351.6 Feb 19 high
*RES 2: $1346.6 Feb 20 high
*RES 1: $1336.4 Feb 21 high
*PRICE: $1329.0 @1032GMT
*SUP 1: $1320.0 76.4% Fibo of $1307.1-$1361.8
*SUP 2: $1318.1 Feb 14 low
*SUP 3: $1307.1 Feb 8 low
*SUP 4: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*COMMENTARY* Unable to find the ability to retest the year's $1366.2 high and
has been gradually suffering since. The latest fall back beneath $1344.9 allows
some further correction of recent gains from this month's $1307.1 base. In this
respect the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1320.0 and the Feb 14 low at $1318.1
now offer a potential reprieve. In the interim, resistance moves to
$1336.4-$1346.6 but back above $1351.6 needed to revive upside interest. 
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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