MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

2 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Hinting At Correction To $1.2327-1.2435

*RES 4: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 3: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*RES 2: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 1: $1.2327 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.2278 @ 1030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2251 Hourly support Mar 2 

*SUP 2: $1.2223 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the dip below the 55-DMA ($1.2191) is

a concern for bears given modestly O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base at

$1.2164. The bounce hints at a correction back to $1.2327-1.2435 with a close

above needed to return initial focus to 2018 highs. The $1.2092 support remains

key. Bears need a close below to end bullish hopes and initially target

$1.1915-95 where the 100-DMA is located.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3857 Resistance Remains Key Today

*RES 4: $1.4069 High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $1.3997 High Feb 27 

*RES 2: $1.3940 Hourly resistance Feb 27 

*RES 1: $1.3857 Low Feb 22 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3762 @ 1030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3754 Hourly support Mar 1 

*SUP 2: $1.3710 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 3: $1.3657 Monthly High Sept 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3613 High Jan 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that followed Tuesday's rejection above the 21-DMA

($1.3930) resulted in fresh 2mth lows Thursday although follow through has been

lacking courtesy of the Bollinger band base ($1.3739). The $1.3857 resistance

remains key with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and above

$1.3940 to shift focus back to $1.4150. While $1.3857 caps bears focus on the

$1.3553-1.3612 region.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y105.50 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.61 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y107.19 High Mar 1 

*RES 1: Y106.54 Low Feb 28 now resistance

*PRICE: Y105.70 @ 1030GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support 

*SUP 2: Y105.32 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of Y108.03-42 has left the pair looking

heavy and retains immediate bearish focus on a retest of 2018 lows. A close

below Y105.50 remains needed to reconfirm focus on Y98.95-101.16. Resistance

layers are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above Y108.03 to

confirm a break of the 21-DMA and hint at a correction to Y109.79-110.47 with

above Y108.42 to confirm. Daily studies are well placed for fresh losses.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Finding Support Around 200-WMA

*RES 4: Y131.33 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y130.91 Low Feb 23 now resistance

*RES 2: Y130.78 High Mar 1

*RES 1: Y130.00 Hourly support Mar 2 now resistance

*PRICE: Y129.76 @ 1030GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.61 200-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y129.34 Monthly Low Sept 6 

*SUP 3: Y128.47 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: Continued fresh 2018 & 6mth lows leave the pair looking heavy with

overall focus shifting to Y125.80-127.54. Immediate focus is on 55 & 200-WMAs

which may support along the way. The Bollinger base is noted at Y129.20 and

remains unchallenged indicating the move isn't getting ahead of itself. Bulls

need a close above the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and above Y132.24 to

target a correction back to Y133.05-134.17 where key DMAs are situated.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8928

*RES 4: Gbp0.9048 Low Aug 15 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.9013 Monthly High Nov 15 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12

*PRICE: Gbp0.8921 @ 1030GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8885 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8866 High Feb 28 now support 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8835 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8769 Low Feb 26

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to Gbp0.8928 following the recovery from the

week's low. The close above the 200-DMA (Gbp0.8885) adds support to the bullish

case but a close above Gbp0.8928 is still needed to target Gbp0.9013-48. Daily

studies are well placed for gains. Layers of support are now a concern for bears

who look for a close below Gbp0.8835 to ease pressure on Gbp0.8928 and shift

initial focus back to Gbp0.8769 weekly lows so far.

AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $0.7694

*RES 4: $0.7870 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7819 - High Feb 28

*RES 2: $0.7785 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7772 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7751 @ 1030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 2: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7622 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Key supports crumbled following the close below the 200-DMA but

follow through has been limited courtesy of the Bollinger band base ($0.7233).

Bears tentatively focus on $0.7500 Dec lows. In saying that, bulls now look for

a close above $0.7819 to confirm breaks of 100 & 200-DMAs to ease bearish

pressure and above $0.7910 to initially target $0.7989. Bears now look for a

close below $0.7694 to add weight to their case.

DOLLAR-CAD TECHS: Lacks Follow Through Above 55-WMA

*RES 4: $1.3043 - High June 29 now support

*RES 3: $1.2961 - Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: $1.2915 - Monthly Highs Oct & Dec 2017

*RES 1: $1.2874 - 55-WMA

*PRICE: $1.2862 @ 1030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2828 - Hourly support Mar 1 

*SUP 2: $1.2778 - High Feb 27 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2733 - Hourly support Feb 27 

*SUP 4: $1.2669 - Low Feb 27

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from dips below the 100-DMA ($1.2645) now sees bullish

focus on the $1.2915-61 region where repeated attempts to break higher from late

Oct -Dec failed and the daily bull channel top is situated. Bulls now need a

close above $1.2915 to shift focus to $1.3168-1.3215 with above $1.3043 to

confirm. Bears now need a close below $1.2733 to confirm an easing of bullish

pressure and shift focus back to $1.2592-1.2645

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Aggressive Bounce Ahead Of 100-DMA

*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1330.0 - Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1323.9 - Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $1316.9 @ 1030GMT

*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1300.2 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1287.2 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The bounce from ahead of the 100-DMA and a dip below the Bollinger

base ($1306.0) is a concern for bears and could signal the end of the correction

from $1361.8 Feb highs. Bulls still need a close above $1330.0 to gain breathing

room and above $1351.3 to shift focus back to $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs

are noted. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to

$1235.9 Dec lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]