MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2345-$1.2365 Now Bar The Way To Further Progress

*RES 4: $1.2415/20 1% vol band, broken bull channel base

*RES 3: $1.2403 61.8% Fibo of $1.2556-$1.2155

*RES 2: $1.2365 Mar 2 high

*RES 1: $1.2345 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2327 @1705GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2252/69 Mar 2, intraday lows

*SUP 2: $1.2205 Hourly congestion Feb 28-Mar 1

*SUP 3: $1.2155/65 Mar 1 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.2093 Sep 8 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Found support last week from a combination of the lower 1%

volatility band and a 38.2% Fibo retrace level. The subsequent recovery now

tries to renegotiate resistance from between $1.2345-$1.2365. Back through here

would allow a move up to the next area of note, at $1.2403, a 61.8% Fibo level

and the swing target of the most recent $1.2365-$1.2269 fall, at $1.2424. In the

interim, that $1.2269 level and the Mar 2 low at $1.2252 provide support.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3890 Now The Next Resistance To Consider

*RES 4: $1.4027 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3997 Feb 27 high

*RES 2: $1.3928 Feb 26 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.3890 Hourly lows Feb 28, now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3856 @1716GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3815/25 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3790/95 Hourly congestion Mar 2-Mar 5

*SUP 3: $1.3756 Mar 2 low

*SUP 4: $1.3712 Mar 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Has recovered in the near term since last Thursday's dip to

$1.3712. Have today seen further progress through recent 1.3817 highs and the

Feb 22 low at $1.3857. This now leaves $1.3890 in the way of a test to the Feb

26 low at $1.3928. Through the latter needed however, before the rally can

increase in potential toward $1.3997. As a result, support also on the move,

$1.3825-$1.3790, now the protection to the more important Mar 2 low at $1.3756.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Further Recovery Has Y105.77-Y106.00 Resistance

*RES 4: Y106.74 Hourly congestion Feb 28-Mar 1

*RES 3: Y106.55 Initial low Mar 1, now resistance

*RES 2: Y106.38 Feb 26 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y106.00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y105.91 @1720GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.25 Mar 2 low

*SUP 2: Y104.60 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: Y104.09 1.618 swing of Y105.55-Y107.91

*SUP 4: Y103.64 76.4% Fibo of Y99.00-Y118.67

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to lose ground since last Monday's Y107.68 high. The

subsequent loss of the previous Y105.55 low has reached Y105.25 so far, before

finding some near term respite from some oversold hourly conditions. Now has

Y105.77-Y106.00 in the way of any further gains and better recovery of some of

those losses. Below Y105.25 and the lower 2% volatility band at Y104.60 is the

protection against a drop to the swing target at Y104.09.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y130.80-Y130.94 The Next Potential Bar To Gains

*RES 4: Y131.52 Feb 28 high, 76.4% Fibo of Y132.19-Y129.35

*RES 3: Y131.11 61.8% Fibo of Y132.19-Y129.35

*RES 2: Y130.94 Feb 23 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.80 Mar 1 high

*PRICE: Y130.73 @1730GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.15/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y129.65/70 Hourly congestion area Mar 2

*SUP 3: Y129.35 Intraday low

*SUP 4: Y128.85 38.2% Fibo of Y114.85-Y137.51

*COMMENTARY* A fresh fall today saw a low of Y129.35, before finding some

support on the back of some near term oversold conditions. This has seen a move

back through Y130.25-Y130.53 but now meets next resistance from between the Mar

1 high at Y130.80 and the Feb 23 low at Y130.94. In the interim, Y130.15

provides nearest support, with the congested Y129.70-Y129.65 area now protecting

the day's low.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Fibo Retrace At Stg0.8951 Caps Rally So Far

*RES 4: Stg0.9013 Nov 15 high, 1.618 swing 0.8920-0.8771

*RES 3: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8951 Mar 2 high, 76.4% of Stg0.9032-Stg0.8687

*RES 1: Stg0.8937 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Stg0.8903 @1735GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8883 Hourly base Mar 1

*SUP 2: Stg0.8864 Feb 22 high, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8837 Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8815 Initial rally high Feb 26, now support

*COMMENTARY* Have recently seen a move through the range top at Stg0.8920-26. So

far, this has been halted at Stg0.8951, the 76.4% Fibo retrace level of the

Stg0.9032-Stg0.8687 fall seen since the beginning of October last year. Will

need to maintain a break through here, before the potential for a higher

Stg0.8981-Stg0.9013 rise will occur. In the meantime, Stg0.8905 support has been

lost and suggests scope for some deeper correction of recent gains.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7781-$0.7794 Stands In Way Of Better Recovery

*RES 4: $0.7850 Hourly congestion area Feb 26-27

*RES 3: $0.7819 Feb 28 high

*RES 2: $0.7794 76.4% Fibo of $0.7819-$0.7713

*RES 1: $0.7781 Feb 28 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7756 @1738GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7725 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $0.7713 Mar 1 low

*SUP 3: $0.7695 Dec 15 high, now support

*SUP 4: $0.7647/52 2% vol band, 76.4% of $0.7502-$0.8136

*COMMENTARY* Break below the previous $0.7759 low last week has resulted in a

base at $0.7713 so far, before picking up aided by some near term oversold

conditions. This keeps us above the lower 1% volatility band at $0.7725 for the

time being today but will need the added emphasis of a $0.7781-$0.7794 break,

before any further confidence in the upside will follow. Below $0.7713 and the

Dec 15 high at $0.7695 protects against a deeper $0.7652-$0.7647 fall.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Breaks Above Previous $1.2921 High

*RES 4: $1.3132 61.8% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 3: $1.3109 Equality rise from $1.2249 to $1.2061-$1.2921

*RES 2: $1.3083 6 month bull channel top projection

*RES 1: $1.3027 2% volatility band

*PRICE: $1.2986 @1750GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2910/15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2869 Hourly base Mar 2

*SUP 3: $1.2809 Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: $1.2758 Feb 22 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Has blasted through the previous $1.2921 high today and also the

near term equality rise target at $1.2948. A high of $1.2989 at the time of

writing but there is currently not much resistance of note until the upper 2%

volatility band at the higher $1.3027 level. Support also on the rise,

$1.2915-$1.2910 initially, this protecting against a deeper $1.2869 fall, which

should hold now, if the rally is set to continue at this juncture.

GOLD TECHS: 'Doji' Candle Close After Fall Held Above 50% Fibo Level

*RES 4: $1361.8 Feb 16 high

*RES 3: $1351.6 Feb 19 high

*RES 2: $1341.1 Feb 26 high

*RES 1: $1332.1 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1319.2 @1755GMT

*SUP 1: $1317.5 Feb 23 low

*SUP 2: $1311.8 76.4% Fibo of $1307.1-$1361.8

*SUP 3: $1307.1 Feb 8 low low

*SUP 4: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support at $1302.8 last Thursday. just ahead of the 50% Fibo

retrace level at $1301.4. This of the preceding $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. The

subsequent recovery has been aided by the appearance of a potentially bullish

'Doji' candle close on the daily chart last Thursday. Next resistance comes from

$1332.1, through here will allow a better $1341.1-$1351.6 rise. Above the latter

then needed to reinvigorate the upside. Nearest support $1317.5-$1311.8.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]