MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2365 Loss Opens Door To Correction

*RES 4: $1.2434/46 1% volatility band, Mar 7, Mar 8 highs 

*RES 3: $1.2410/15 Congestion area Mar 7-Mar 8

*RES 2: $1.2385 Mar 7 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2355/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2310 @0955GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2294/95 Intraday, Mar 8 lows

*SUP 2: $1.2266/69 61.8% of $1.2155-$1.2446, Mar 5 low

*SUP 3: $1.2222/24 Initial high Mar 1, 76.4% $1.2155-$1.2446

*SUP 4: $1.2187 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The combination of resistance from the upper 1% volatility band and

the base of the previously broken 4 month bull channel, proved a bridge too far

this week. A dual $1.2446 high before succumbing to downside pressure,

heightened by the loss of $1.2365 support. A low of $1.2294 so far, just beneath

the 50% retrace level at $1.2300, this of recent gains from $1.2155. Meantime,

that $1.2365 area returns as resistance with $1.2385-$1.2415 above.

CABLE TECHS: Slip Finding Support Above Key $1.3763-$1.3756 Area

*RES 4: $1.3928/30 Feb 26 low, Mar 6 high

*RES 3: $1.3910/13 Mar 8, Mar 7 highs

*RES 2: $1.3895 Hourly congestion area Mar 6-Mar 8

*RES 1: $1.3846/53 Mar 7 low, initial base Mar 8

*PRICE: $1.3803 @1005GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3782/90 Mar 8 low, hourly congestion Mar 2-Mar 5

*SUP 2: $1.3756/63 Mar 2 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1.3712-$1.3930

*SUP 3: $1.3707/12 1% volatility band, Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: $1.3668 76.4% Fibo of $1.3458-$1.4346

*COMMENTARY* Was unable to penetrate the $1.3928-$1.3930 resistance area and has

bowed to some near term pressure from overbought hourly conditions. This has

seen both $1.3847 and $1.3817 support give way. The fall has however remained

above $1.3763-$1.3756 so far. Loss of the latter would concern and suggest scope

for a deeper correction with $1.3712-$1.3668 then in the firing line. Meanwhile,

back above $1.3853 would alleviate immediate pressure, $1.3895-$1.3913 above.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Breaks Above 2018 Falling Resistance Line

*RES 4: Y107.68 Feb 27 high

*RES 3: Y107.47 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y107.20/28 Mar 1 high, 76.4% Fibo of Y107.91-Y105.25

*RES 1: Y106.95 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y106.75 @1020GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.23/27 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y106.00/05 Hourly congestion Mar 7-Mar 8

*SUP 3: Y105.87/89 Initial rally high Mar 7, Mar 8 low

*SUP 4: Y105.34/46 1% volatility band, Mar 6 low

*COMMENTARY* The rally has now broken above the 2018 falling resistance line, at

Y106.65 by time today. A high of Y106.95 at the time of writing, ahead of the

next resistance area of note between Y107.20-Y107.28. Will need to surmount the

latter before confidence in a greater Y107.47-Y107.91 recovery will grow. In the

interim, Y106.27-Y106.23 provides initial support, Y106.05-Y105.87 of more

importance below and protection against Y105.46-Y105.25.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Confusion Still Reigns As Conflicting Signals Appear

*RES 4: Y132.30/47 1% vol band, 38.2% of Y137.51-Y129.35

*RES 3: Y132.19 Feb 27 high

*RES 2: Y131.98/02 Mar 8, Mar 6 highs

*RES 1: Y131.60/68 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y131.33 @1025GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.75/80 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y130.52/53 Mar 8 low, Mar 2 high

*SUP 3: Y130.27 Initial rally high Mar 5, now support

*SUP 4: Y129.95/00 Congestion area Feb 28-Mar 5

*COMMENTARY* Monday's bullish 'outside day' resulted in a Y132.02 rise, before

meeting resistance from some overbought conditions. The subsequent lower close

has now seen the appearance of a potentially bearish 'Doji' candle at Tuesday's

close. The loss of Y130.93 support switched attention to the Y130.53 area for

next clues. Have to hold around here or risk returns lower. Meanwhile,

Y131.60-Y131.68 now provides resistance ahead of Y132.02 again.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Challenges And Falters At Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Stg0.9032 Oct 12 high

*RES 3: Stg0.9013 Nov 15 high, 1.618 swing 0.8920-0.8771

*RES 2: Stg0.8977/81 1% volatility band, Nov 28 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8968 Mar 7 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8908 @1030GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8900/05 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8885 Mar 5 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8864 Feb 22 high, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8844 Feb 27 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Broke above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8951 on Wednesday

and the upper 1% volatility band, at Stg0.8968 at the time, was also challenged.

Clearly sustained move through the latter, now at Stg0.8977 and the Nov 28 high

at Stg0.8981 is required before the chance of testing Stg0.9013. In the interim,

support comes from above Stg0.8905-Stg0.8885. A loss of the latter would caution

and weaken the immediate upside argument.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7851-$0.7877 Next Target Area After $0.7794 Break

*RES 4: $0.7924 50% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7713

*RES 3: $0.7893 Feb 26 high

*RES 2: $0.7870/75 1% vol band, 38.2% of $0.8136-$0.7713 

*RES 1: $0.7843/51 Mar 6 high, 76.4% of $0.7893-$0.7713

*PRICE: $0.7802 @1034GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7771/73 Mar 2 high, Mar 8 low

*SUP 2: $0.7756 Mar 6 low

*SUP 3: $0.7738 Mar 2 low

*SUP 4: $0.7712/13 1% volatility band, Mar 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Break beneath the previous $0.7759 low last week resulted in a base

at $0.7713, before picking up aided by some near term oversold conditions. This

keeps us above the lower 1% volatility band, at $0.7712 today and with the added

emphasis of a 0.7794 break, now suggests scope for a further $0.7851-$0.7875

rise. Support comes initially from above $0.7771, although Tuesday's $0.7756 low

currently provides a stronger level below.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: 1.2854 Support Becomes Pivotal To Direction

*RES 4: $1.3090 1.618 swing of $1.3002-$1.2862, 6 mth channel

*RES 3: $1.3001/02 Mar 6, Mar 5 highs

*RES 2: $1.2961 Mar 8 high

*RES 1: $1.2930/40 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2873 @1040GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2854/62 38.2% Fibo of $1.2615-$1.3002, Mar 6 low

*SUP 2: $1.2809 Mar 1 low, 50% Fibo of $1.2615-$1.3002

*SUP 3: $1.2758/63 Feb 22 high, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2615-$1.3002

*SUP 4: $1.2733 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* After two attempts has so far been unable to move with any

conviction above $1.3000. The subsequent pullback currently meeting support from

above the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at $1.2854. This of the gains seen since the

Feb 26 low at $1.2615. Loss of $1.2854 will set in motion a deeper correction

with $1.2809-$1.2763 the next area of support. Meanwhile, $1.2930-$1.2961 forms

the bar to a renewal of upside interest.

GOLD TECHS: 'Doji' Candle Close After Fall Held Above 50% Fibo Level

*RES 4: $1361.8 Feb 16 high

*RES 3: $1351.6 Feb 19 high

*RES 2: $1341.1 Feb 26 high

*RES 1: $1335.1 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1320.1 @1044GMT

*SUP 1: $1316.9 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1311.2 Feb 9 low

*SUP 3: $1307.1 Feb 8 low

*SUP 4: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support at $1302.8 last Thursday, just ahead of the 50% Fibo

retrace level at $1301.4. This of the preceding $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. The

subsequent recovery has been aided by the appearance of a potentially bullish

'Doji' candle close on the daily chart last Thursday. Tuesday's move back above

$1332.1, now allows the chance of a better $1341.1-$1351.6 rise. Above the

latter then needed to reinvigorate the upside. Nearest support $1316.9-$1311.2.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]