MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Still Hindered By $1.2345 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2445/46 1% volatility band, Mar 7, Mar 8 highs 

*RES 3: $1.2405/10 Congestion area Mar 7-Mar 8

*RES 2: $1.2385 Mar 7 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2345/46 Hourly resistance, Mar 12 high

*PRICE: $1.2322 @0815GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2290/91 Hourly support, Mar 12 low

*SUP 2: $1.2266/69 61.8% of $1.2155-$1.2446, Mar 5 low

*SUP 3: $1.2222/24 Initial high Mar 1, 76.4% $1.2155-$1.2446

*SUP 4: $1.2199 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The combination of resistance from the upper 1% volatility band and

the base of the previously broken 4 month bull channel, proved a bridge too far

last week. A dual $1.2446 high before succumbing to downside pressure,

heightened by the loss of $1.2365 support. A low of $1.2273 seen so far, just

ahead of the 61.8% retrace level at $1.2366, this of recent gains from $1.2155.

Meantime, $1.2345 acts as resistance with $1.2385-$1.2410 above.

CABLE TECHS: Recovery Reaches Edge Of Congested $1.3913-$1.3954 Area

*RES 4: $1.4021/29 1.618 swing $1.3930-$1.3712, 50% Fibo 

*RES 3: $1.3954 38.2% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3712

*RES 2: $1.3926/30 6 week res line, Feb 26 low, Mar 6 high

*RES 1: $1.3913/18 Hourly resistance, Mar 12 high

*PRICE: $1.3895 @0825GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3841 Mar 12 low, hourly base Mar 9

*SUP 2: $1.3815 Initial recovery high Mar 8, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3782 Mar 8 low

*SUP 4: $1.3756/63 Mar 2 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1.3712-$1.3930

*COMMENTARY* $1.3928-$1.3930 resistance capped last week and subsequently bowed

to some pressure from overbought hourly conditions. This saw $1.3847-$1.3817

support give way, although the fall has remained above $1.3763-$1.3756. Loss of

the latter would concern and suggest scope for a deeper correction. Meanwhile,

with the move back above $1.3895, the congested $1.3913-$1.3954 area, now stands

in the way of a higher $1.4021-$1.4029 rise. Nearest support $1.3841-$1.3815.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Clinging To Break Above 2018 Falling Resistance Line 

*RES 4: Y107.68 Feb 27 high

*RES 3: Y107.36 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y107.20/28 Mar 1 high, 76.4% Fibo of Y107.91-Y105.25

*RES 1: Y107.05 Mar 9 high

*PRICE: Y106.90 @0835GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.45/55 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y106.25 Intraday low

*SUP 3: Y106.00/05 Hourly congestion Mar 7-Mar 8

*SUP 4: Y105.87/89 Initial rally high Mar 7, Mar 8 low

*COMMENTARY* Friday saw the rally break above the 2018 falling resistance line,

at Y106.34 by time today. A high of Y107.05, ahead of the next resistance area

of note between Y107.20-Y107.28. Will need to surmount the latter before

confidence in a greater Y107.68-Y107.91 recovery will grow. In the interim,

Y106.55-Y106.25 provides initial support, Y106.05-Y105.87 of more importance

below and protection against Y105.46-Y105.25.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Conflicting Signals Result In Near Term Consolidation

*RES 4: Y133.06 Feb 21 high

*RES 3: Y132.47 38.2% Fibo of Y137.51-Y129.35

*RES 2: Y132.19/29 Feb 27 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y131.98/02 Mar 8, Mar 6 highs

*PRICE: Y131.80 @0837GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.85/97 Hourly support, Mar 12 low

*SUP 2: Y130.52/53 Mar 8 low, Mar 2 high

*SUP 3: Y130.27 Initial rally high Mar 5, now support

*SUP 4: Y129.95/00 Congestion area Feb 28-Mar 5

*COMMENTARY* Last Monday's bullish 'outside day' resulted in a Y132.02 rise,

before meeting resistance from some overbought conditions. The subsequent lower

close then saw the appearance of a potentially bearish 'Doji' candle at

Tuesday's close. The loss of Y130.93 support switched attention to the Y130.53

area for next clues. Have to hold around here or risk returns lower. Meanwhile,

through Y132.02 and Y132.19-Y132.47 then bars the way to Y133.06.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Challenges And Falters At Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Stg0.9013 Nov 15 high, 1.618 swing 0.8920-0.8771

*RES 3: Stg0.8981/88 Nov 28 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.8968 Mar 7 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8925/40 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8876 @0843GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8844 Feb 27 high, now support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8815/20 Hourly congestion Feb 26-Feb 27

*SUP 3: Stg0.8810 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8771 Feb 26 low

*COMMENTARY* It seems we are not quite ready for a challenge to the top of the

congested trading area that has prevailed for the last 6 months, let alone a

break out. The failure below Stg0.8981-Stg0.9032 last week, has seen a return

into the recent range. Near term support from Stg0.8875-Stg0.8870 has been lost

and opens the way for a deeper Stg0.8844-Stg0.8815 fall. Meanwhile,

Stg0.8925-Stg0.8940 bars the way higher again.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7885-93 Break Now Needed To Add Further Impetus To Rise

*RES 4: $0.7974 61.8% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7713

*RES 3: $0.7962 2% volatility band

*RES 2: $0.7924 50% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7713

*RES 1: $0.7885/93 1% volatility band, Feb 26 high

*PRICE: $0.7870 @0850GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7820/30 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7795 Hourly congestion Mar 7-Mar 9

*SUP 3: $0.7772/73 Mar 7-Mar 8 lows

*SUP 4: $0.7750/55 Congestion area Mar 1-Mar 5

*COMMENTARY* Break beneath the previous $0.7759 low last week resulted in a base

at $0.7713, before picking up aided by some near term oversold conditions. This

kept us above the lower 1% volatility band and with the added emphasis of a

0.7794 break, now suggests scope for a further $0.7885-$0.7893 rise. Support

comes initially from above $0.7830-$0.7795, although the $0.7773-$0.7772 area

currently provides a stronger level below.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Pullback Finds Support At Top Of $1.2809-$1.2763 Area

*RES 4: $1.3001/02 Mar 6, Mar 5 highs

*RES 3: $1.2961 Mar 8 high

*RES 2: $1.2909 Mar 9 high

*RES 1: $1.2880 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2857 @0853GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2803/09 Mar 12 low, 50% Fibo of $1.2615-$1.3002

*SUP 2: $1.2758/63 Feb 22 high, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2615-$1.3002

*SUP 3: $1.2743 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.2712 Feb 26 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* After two attempts has so far been unable to move with any

conviction above $1.3000. The subsequent pullback broke below support from the

38.2% Fibo retrace level at $1.2854 on Friday. This of the gains seen since the

Feb 26 low at $1.2615. Has so far been held around the top of the next deeper

correction area between $1.2809-$1.2763. Meanwhile, $1.2880-$1.2909 forms the

bar to a renewal of upside interest.

GOLD TECHS: 'Doji' Candle Close After Fall Held Above 50% Fibo Level

*RES 4: $1351.6 Feb 19 high

*RES 3: $1341.1 Feb 26 high

*RES 2: $1334.1 Hourly high Mar 7

*RES 1: $1329.1 Mar 8 high

*PRICE: $1318.6 @0855GMT

*SUP 1: $1311.2 Feb 9 low

*SUP 2: $1307.1 Feb 8 low

*SUP 3: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Found support at $1302.8 earlier in the month, just ahead of the

50% Fibo retrace level at $1301.4. This of the preceding $1236.6-$1366.2 rise.

The subsequent recovery has been aided by the appearance of a potentially

bullish 'Doji' candle close on the daily chart and also last week's move back

above $1332.1. Still have $1341.1 in the way of a better $1351.6-$1361.8 rise.

Currently seeing some correction, $1311.2-$1307.1 support.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]